[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

14 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Widely 5cm or so on the 00z by the end of Sunday night through London eastwards. Absolutely pants for here 

 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Beast from the east. No . Cold waft from the north east yes. Rember Feb 91. Minus 6 day max in south coast locations.  Just to put things into perspective

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

It's all about Luton and places north. Onwards and upwards 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

I'll get shot down. But only when north France joins in to the game Will I have any confidence  regarding areas south of Luton 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Spraggyy said:

EA I reckon before midnight London and Kent 1am-3am it will change to snow would be my guess

The north downs between folkestone and Maidstone will get spanked. That's only my prediction. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

 

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the 18z ARPEGE ensembles are in and...

Good luck picking a solution based on that set of options. Even Sunday morning is highly uncertain, we have options from basically nothing for ALL, through to a very large 15-20cms fall for all.

Beyond that higher confidence of banding convection setting up, and probably a streamer or two as well in the usual places.

Also interestingly the runs that are stronger with the frontal system are also much snowier afterwards with regards to streamers, etc. Something to think about...

Is low level west still in the game? Or is it the hills behind folkestone like usual?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, greenhithe said:

 we have had some epic snows in the past one i renember was in the 80s were we open our front door to see a wall of snow ( 6ft drifts)

and before the bypass was built we got snowed in and had food diliveries  by pony and trap  hence why i have a 4X4 mokka

Early Jan 1985 in south east Kent was a big event. No one ever talks about that either, but I'm showing my age now.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I been lurking about for many years. But I will never post in the model output thread,, if get eaten alive 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

11 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

Remember that the surface winds don't follow the isobars they are always directed a few degrees of the compass left. So there for the wind will be rather more north east  and north/North East than some may think

That's good for east kent. So folkestone and the hills behind may yet take the sweet spot 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Remember that the surface winds don't follow the isobars they are always directed a few degrees of the compass left. So there for the wind will be rather more north east  and north/North East than some may think

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

Ok I've given up looking at the models and the mod thread. So is it true that this will end up as an east Kent daggler event like Feb 2010? 

Or late December 2005

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Ok I've given up looking at the models and the mod thread. So is it true that this will end up as an east Kent daggler event like Feb 2010? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

11 minutes ago, paget said:

Still not much showing on the actual forecasts for here (Farnham) on Sunday, a few single flakes on the meto and one single one on bbc, net weather is showing heavy snow most of the day and metcheck (as usual!)  has heavy snow until July!!  

 

 

Farnham and fleet, where my sister lives did rather well on 24th January. 98 percent of Kent got rain and sleet. Send some of the luck towards the east please

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, paget said:

Still not much showing on the actual forecasts for here (Farnham) on Sunday, a few single flakes on the meto and one single one on bbc, net weather is showing heavy snow most of the day and metcheck (as usual!)  has heavy snow until July!!  

 

 

Farnham and fleet, where my sister lives did rather well on 24th January. 98 percent of Kent got rain and sleet. Send some of the luck towards the east please

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Where did i quote sunday??

I said somewhere in that huge area by tuesday pm??? 

You telling me not one street will hit 30cm in the south east by tuesday pm?

Because i am certain one area will

One area in yorkshire will hit 20cm

One are in the midlands will hit 20cm

I respect your opinion but to ridicule mine is a tad premature in this set up

Forum do me a favour and if you hit any of these amounts by tuesday pm private message me

For the south east. I'm taking a punt that Lenham in mid Kent with a bit of altitude stands a chance of 10 cm

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, Uxbridge90 said:

So more importantly, where is the socially distanced SE & EA regional snow fight happening on Sunday then? 

Hastingleigh near Ashford. It always wins on the snow front 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I will remain healthily pessimistic but this is the best it's looked so far for Medway IMO this whole winter.

Detling hill may do ok providing there's precipitation. Same on Boxley downs. Maidstone town centre and the low parts of Chatham and Rochester,, it's to be confirmed.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Somewhere in my pics I have my children ( all now adults ) after a huge snow event and a huge snowman ️ 

Well it's hard to say when your big snow event was. You need to narrow the timescale 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Honestly can’t remember if it did much for me ( Uxbridge)

The Feb 09 event was in a narrow corridor from the far north west of Kent and maybe south Essex, through south London and into central and west Surrey like leatherhead for example 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

When was the last time we saw that ? Genuine question btw 

Feb 2009 and maybe Jan 2010 also

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, jamesgold said:

100% it’s a worrying thing in set ups like this as well, giving people false hope or not warning of potential disruption in time etc

Nail on the head mate

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

Yep that is true, I guess my point was that they often avoid actually saying that sort of thing even if it’s in the raw output. Maybe they think that’s more likely 

I think the quality of the bbc weather service has taken a downward turn since met office lost the contract. Since 2018 they always seem to be 12 to 24 hours behind the models,,, even at really close range. Met office cost bbc too much money I guess.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

BBC forecast seemed pretty bullish there, mentions of 10-15cm for some of our area... 

They are using 22 hour old Ecm data I think. Maybe someone will correct me?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Sarahgreatchart said:

Say the models come off / or if they don’t ... could anyone advise which night Im most likely to get least sleep checking out the window... just so I can plan my compensatory 8 hours

My plan is if it happens to wake 5yr old twins up regardless of time - some people think it’s cruel I think it’s what memories are made of

 

 got to go essential shopping for hot chocolate condiments !!

 

 thank you ! 

ashford kent 

Saturday night and early Sunday maybe but who knows

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 hour ago, londonblizzard said:

Anyone else quite enjoying the fact that this will be a cold spell *not* affecting france and central western europe? 
Always get a bit envious when we have a easterly cold spell here and it just looks even colder with our neighbours on the continent, like in 2018 

I personally don't think it's a good thing that northern France avoids the snow and especially the cold. It gives south and south east much less leeway as the boundary between cold and mild will remain perilously close. Plus in the event of the  Atlantic breakdown, a southerly or South south easterly from a frigid north France and Belgium can help with frontal snow in a battleground scenario  in this corner.