Frosty the Snowman

Taking from the far north thread (apologise I like to earwig the other ones) - no source but supposedly a meteorologist's predictions for next weeks snow spell. Some meteorologist if they think the Blackpool Coast and the Wirral can see 5-10cms from an easterly?

Do you have the source for this?

This should cheer a few folk up. That feature we've been keeping an eye on bares a remarkable similarity to some old 2010 streamer set ups that I think people in this thread have said many times is one of the best snowfalls from an Easterly over here. Unfortunately / fortunately dependent on your exact location it's sunk slightly south on the latest GFS on Monday before pushing back north of Tuesday, potential for snow everywhere in the region on this.

Look at the kink over the NW at T72

To be fair a lot of what happens north of Watford is co-dependent on what happens for the SE Corner, if they're panicking you should probably buy a sledge.

Unlike Ian I'll fully admit to doing IMBY if you can't do it in the regionals, where the heck can you. There's a convergence line hanging around that has been referred to a number of times and is consistently showing up on the charts, a route for the Cheshire/Lancashire/Merseyside area to sustained snowfall. Here it is on the 12Z GFS breaching the Pennine snowshield at 15:00 Monday - and remaining in place until Tuesday 06:00 when to the delight of those further north it moves northwards by 12:00 Tuesday (I posted this up accidentally was a draft from earlier, @Winter Hill has got there with the fax chart that's probably more use)

This is the chart ian's referring to for everyone elses benefit. (Cheers @Harsh Climate)

Lol me too 15cm to 30cm -

Jeez. How far above sea level do you live to still have snow from previous events? Surely it would shift with an early spring as well aside from more snow?

Couldn't the front not coming up north be a blessing in disguise allowing constantly convective flow from east for the eastern side of the region and avoiding getting stuck in this gap

I hope you're right.... I'm less convinced, but that's caused enough discussion in my own regional thread without coming in here and opening it. These kind of set ups are brilliant for you guys though, endless convective streams of showers quite possible for the North East and for inland parts of Cumbria. Remember lamp post watching a good few of these kind of Easterlies back up where I used to live. Although having just checked my old house on the met office and seen Saturday and Sunday forecast as rain and sleet I don't feel like I missing out as much

Looks like you'll be in for a treat back in the personal motherland, Covid delaying my eventual move back up looking even more frustrating right now.... Significant snowfall over the weekend looks a nail on for you guys. Enjoy it - and make sure you stop long enough to take a photo on your daily walks

Quite literally a turn the BBC Off chart

To be fair we've got a similar deal going on here, so it's all good

If you go there at the right time of night a tanked up complete stranger will threaten to kick your head in for a reason I'm still clueless too, a truly delightful place.... Nah, in all seriousness that's happened all of once in the times I've been there - the town centre's well developed and got plenty of amenities that over places in the north west don't have in quite such an abundance. House prices are pretty decent, and there's some amazing park spaces in the town centre to get away from it all, I can imagine it being a lovely place to live with a good balance of towny stuff that's useless and decent escapist green spaces.... if it wasn't for the snowshield

Hover over the user it's next to the message button under their profile info - unfortunately it only blocks the poster themselves, not replies to them. Who the hell did they survey for that, jesus ?

Nobody is suggesting that. What we are suggesting is there's a real possibility with either an organised trough or a straight easterly rather a north easterly, we could see some serious snow depths at least as far as the M6 line and quite possibly beyond it. The intensity of the upcoming snow spell, combined with the low pressure of it opens up the door to some real potential. Of course Yorkshire would probably get even more, but quite frankly if Yorkshire got even more buried, meaning we get some proper snow depths I'd take it. The idea an easterly means we'll only see concrete over this side of the country is nutty. 2018 delivered a reasonably moderate snowfall to this area, but it was much nicer snow - sadly it blew around too much to make any use of for pretty pictures, but the intensity of that blizzard was glorious. I'd love to see another event like that which Westerly's just cannot deliver here as they are always too wet, even if 'depth' isn't narnia levels.

The more ridiculous part is some of us only live about 10 miles from you.

Preston must be the worst place in the north of the country for snow to be honest, especially once you go through the town centre out towards Blackpool. You seem to not get anything from a Westerly flow as it's too marginal, but has sorted it out by the time it gets to Blackburn, and then when we get to Easterlies the precipitation kills itself around Darwen/Blackburn. I've only lived here a few years and the amount of good snow events I've seen here that haven't been seen in Preston is bonkers

It was a balanced post. As for your other point. To be fair a lot of those predicting 'only X' are predicting with our own experiences in mind as that prediction comp is 'in our back yard'. I had 4-5inches of snow - around 10cm from an event earlier in January that delivered a fraction of that to @chicken soup who lives a mile or so from me but doesn't have the benefit of being just under 200m above sea level, I'm fully aware for those further west and at lower levels even seeing a few cms from this set up will make their days, but in a spot that did well the rest of winter where we've already had 4-5inches or around 10-12cm from snow events this winter, anything below that would be dissapointing from what I've long regarded as the 'holy grail' of weather events due to the fact I lived in the north east for many years and was there when the 2010 Beast delivered 1ft of level snow that lasted for weeks, the idea that the upper expectations of an Easterly for many over here is a possible few cms is difficult to adjust too. As mentioned above though, there seems to be enough of a real Easterly orientation to this it could throw us into one of those rare 'good for the NW' Easterlies by all accounts.

It depends which direction it's coming from round here. For an easterly like the one upcoming (and I'm sure the same applies for the East Coast when we get a stonking NW'ly too ) Turn off the national news. Start planning walks in the bright sunshine and crisp cold I'll see for the next few weeks. Look up the traffic cams of areas likely to be buried check house prices in the Highlands. In all seriousness actual plans coming up to a cold spell tend to be..... Check house prices in the Highlands Check the grit supplies. Check the snow shovel is still whether it's been for the past few months. Look at youtube videos of historic events from all around the world of deep cold and heavy snow Contemplating whether it's close enough to Christmas to get the decorations back out... (this one isn't) Dig out the electric heaters. Watch The Day After Tomorrow Tell everybody there's nothing to worry about and the media are overhyping the whole thing to be on the safe side

Judging by a few comments in other regional threads regarding this situation from moderators, it's a subject best avoided now we've had a collective spleen vent on it. Let's focus on the weather!

This feature keeps popping up shooting the precip right across the country out into the Irish Sea above Liverpool on various models, over the past few days. Presumably some sort of organised trough is shifting westwards to enable that. These areas probably want to keep a close eye on development of this feature, as should it come off you are looking at very significant snowfall. I think the day it's actually shifted between Sun and Mon but beyond that it's been consistent across different runs. The areas between the red bars here seem highly likely to affected, Cumbria would be feeding off general easterly precipitation anyway, so I wouldn't worry about not being included in this.

To be honest it's getting to the point I'm more optimistic about a snowy spell if I'm not under a weather warning from the MetO

Baby steps...