[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

1 hour ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Maybe time for a spring thread? Looking forward to a bit of warmth in my life now. 

Maybe we can hit 70F again in February?

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

I'm sure the winter setup will come right in April with a roaring north easterly 5C and rain.   

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

First chance to cut the grass this season. I think autumn and spring are squeezing winter out of fashion.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

4 hours ago, Frigid said:

Last year, Madrid had record breaking snowfall and cold. Now this year its Greece and Turkey. What will it take to get a snow event in this country...

We have special mild sector that we always stay in.  Anyway, given everything that is going on in the world and energy prices it's probably for the best.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

3 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

Still a chance of the odd transitional cold spell, but those of us after sonething half decent like 2010 might as well draw stumps. See you all next winter.

 

I agree the models show high pressure dominating now and the chances of a deep and lasting cold spell slipping away. Especially for those in the south.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

Running out of time now for low lying parts of the south. In 4 weeks time the sun will be too high for any lasting snow.  That's not say it can't snow with a cold snap, but it's means the drip drip sound of the snow melting as soon as the sun comes out.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

4 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

Very heavy storm passed through East Ham 10-15 minutes ago.

Heard thunder and saw one lightning flash.

Intense rain - what was most unusual was this came from the NE, not from the south or west as you would expect. It's the first time I can recall a thunderstorm travelling NE-SW - we can get rain from that but not a storm. Very unusual and, as I say, very intense rainfall for a short period.

A cool North Sea feed has put pay to any action here. As you say a SW or NW flow with a longer land track is generally much better here. The additional heat effect of Central London seems to be the sweet spot today.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Look like all the action is west of here. Enjoy if storms are your thing.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Light drizzle clearing away and brightening up now.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

28 minutes ago, Don said:

It seems to be that familiar story of any potential cold being put back?

There's always a beast in FI, well nearly always. I never take much notice past +240. In my opinion it would actually be healthy not to have beyond +240. 

For the next 10 days it seems the weather is set to be mild. Double digits in the south and virtually frost free, especially in the south.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

This looks utterly wonderful...>10C T850s . . . in February!

    

If this happens it's going to pump loads of heat into the ground. Not good for any cold snap that follows, if there is one.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

You do have to laugh sometimes.  Didn't Gerry Rafferty and Joe Egan right a song about this? 

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

People always says how hard it is to shift a cold block, but in reality it never seems to be a problem.  7-10 days is generally all we can manage before the mild / Atlantic finds a way in. Yes there are exceptions to this, but they are rare.   

[Beast from the East 2021.Post-mortem.]

A true beast from the old days 1991. They don't make them like that anymore.

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I for one would not be happy.  20C in February is simply not right!

Probably the future though and likely to become more common.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Starting to look like deep cold may be done for this year. Perhaps a tame beast towards the end of Feb?

Thanks for all the excellent posts and analysis. 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

7 hours ago, Azazel said:

I’m guessing the Dover Strait didn’t freeze over in the end and there haven’t been any reported ice bergs in the Thames?

These were serious predictions/comments in the model thread btw.

The beast is a lot tamer these days. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Pressure will start rising over the next 24 hours. This will mean drier air and therefore the showers will die out.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

It seems things are on the slide now as we head into the weekend. Not surprised as keeping cold longer than a week in the UK is pretty rare, especially in the south.  If the mild wins through I expect we will go from cold to early spring like weather here, which often seems to be way.  

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

39 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Essex is sucking the life out of those snow showers, just leaving scraps for London 

There's not a lot of depth to the showers. So they are not getting very far inland from the coast. Maybe 10 -15 miles in before they fizzle out. In fact the whole band of showers seem to be decaying away now.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh proper showers in the NE the type we got on radar on 2009/2010 when we were gutted we were getting yellows at times what we would give for some yellow radar returns now - It's all a bit meh 

Yeah would be nice. The intensity just isn't there in SE.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Shows the difference in shower intensity. The showers in SE are light to moderate.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

58 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

This ppn intensity ain't cutting it, we need more yellow and orange echos rather than blues and greens. 

Hope a proper streamer starts soon

Agreed the showers lack intensity thus far. Not expecting much unless they pep up.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, SHM040519 said:

Lots of showers in North Sea. BRING IT!!

It looks like north Kent will be the favoured spot. Could be some really big accumulations there I suspect.  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

22 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

I knew this would happen! As soon as the temp drops, it's night time and the pavements and road are prime for covering, it stops Snowing 

Unfortunately the switch from mild 8C yesterday to zero today happened quite quickly, and so the cold never had a chance to get into the ground I suspect.  It would have been far better if there had been a frost before it started snowing, then I suspect accumulations would have occurred more widely. Ironically the ground is freezing up now, but the frontal snow has largely died out now. It will be down to snow showers now, but if you catch one or two heavy ones you could still find several inches of lying snow in the morning.