Ian Docwra
-
Posts
251 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Ian Docwra
-
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Ian Docwra replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
The Met Office text forecast now talks of "chilly" weather, and drier than this week, rather than heavy snowfall (in the south anyway). Very mixed messages/models - to be expected with the jet stream behaving as it is. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Ian Docwra replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Hmm. I just can't see such record-breaking cold materialising from what are likely to be above-average continental levels by then and a very warm North Sea. For SE England we're talking about around 5C below the historical record low maxima (-8C in Feb 1991, I think)! -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Ian Docwra replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Indeed - much as I enjoy snow and the prospect of a heavy fall, I just can't see the deep pool of cold air that has been talked of here - Scandinavia and Russia are around their average temperatures now but are shown to be warming significantly to only a few degrees below freezing by next weekend. Given that, where will all this exceptionally cold air come from? -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Ian Docwra replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Are you saying maxima of -12C ("uppers")?! If in the SE that would far exceed the record, and with the North Sea so warm at the moment I can't see how the air could arrive here anywhere near cold enough to get close to that. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Ian Docwra replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Possibly, though only the very top of the groundwater layer would be likely to freeze, allowing the bulk to drain away under this 'lid'. A lot would depend on the rapidity of the thaw. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Ian Docwra replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Perhaps, but that would take a really exceptional event, and we're now talking about approaching mid-February rather than mid-January. What is the southern North Sea's SST now compared with average, I wonder? If still 2C above, perhaps enough instability could be imparted into an ENE airfow to produce decent falls, but Surrey had 40cm+ in January 1987 and I don't see that materialising. -
Various weather-related images from my collection. I'm a keen amateur photographer living in Surrey.
-
-
From the album: Ian Docwra
Epsom, Wells summit - February 2009. The down line has disappeared under the snow and the up is not far behind.© Ian Docwra
-
From the album: Ian Docwra
Our then garden in Epsom, Surrey after an exceptional snowfall in February 2009.© Ian Docwra
-
From the album: Ian Docwra
3 February 2009. Epsom Common, Surrey. Around 30cm of snow on the ground and still falling. -
From the album: Ian Docwra
Epsom Common, Surrey under an unusually thick blanket of snow - February 2009.© Ian Docwra
-
From the album: Ian Docwra
Our garden when we lived in Epsom, Surrey, just after the exceptional snow of February 2009 had stopped falling.© Ian Docwra
-
I don't think I can remember ever seeing a longer-range forecast from the Met Office which hasn't started with the words "confidence is low for this period", or very similar! The BBC's wording has slipped badly too over recent years, to the point that it's unusual not to see typos or downright errors every day. A niggle for me is the expression "colder temperatures" - no, it's either 'lower temperatures' or 'colder'. Regarding the snow chance, I'd be happy with a simple frosty spell as a second best. We need some proper seasonality back for the garden!
-
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Ian Docwra replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Go for a waterproof, boat-shaped sledge and you'll be set! -
From the album: Ian Docwra
Male fox cub from our garden family (born 2020) enjoying some free food on 26.01.2021.© Ian Docwra
-
-
From the album: Ian Docwra
The rarity of a cloudless day with good snow cover in Surrey!© Ian Docwra
-
-
From the album: Ian Docwra
© Ian Docwra
-
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Ian Docwra replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
A 'wee beastie' would be fun, of course, but it's all still very confused. Hope it's not off-topic to recount that a few days ago, the BBC forecast for many London and SE stations (north and south of the city) was showing 10C+ for Tuesday to Thursday this week, which still looks to be likely, but was also linking to a Met Office weather warning of snow for London on those days! Meanwhile, in happier times, your 59 year-old correspondent enjoyed the 24th January fall...!
-
That makes an interesting comparison to here (Brockham, Dorking), about 15 miles north of you, when we had three days of snow cover from a starting depth of 12cm on 24th January. A little extra height may have made a difference, too. I took a Met Office screenshot of the snow cover on the clear day of the 25th - almost all the white areas in southern England were snow cover, and it shows the distribution quite well.
-
The most noteworthy element here in Surrey (we're at 75m) has been the very rapid snow accumulation on the morning of the 24th January - 12cm in 90 minutes. The snow lay on the ground for three days, including the 25th being a rare cloudless day with snow lying. However, I did notice that several rain 'events' were only not snow events becasuse the North Sea has been around 2C warmer than average this winter and a number of NE wind scenarios have therefore been affected. Also of interest is the fact that there was hardly an air frost at all before Christmas here, despite many clear nights.
-
© Ian Docwra
-
- 2
-
-
- betchworth
- chalk
- (and 4 more)
-
We have a family of foxes, of which this vixen is the tamest, coming to hand for treats. Here she sits in the snow on 25 January 2021 waiting to be fed. Our sledging tracks are behind!© ian Docwra
-
24 January 2021 - Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. Snow falling at an unusually high rate onto frosty ground gave 12cm in 90 minutes.© Ian Docwra
