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Ian Docwra

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Everything posted by Ian Docwra

  1. Ian Docwra
    It usually moves east; moving west is less common.
  2. Ian Docwra
    Unfortunately I can see this starting to fizzle out for anything but the extreme tip of Kent as the main front seems to be moving erratically SE - away from us. Rain and sleet continue over much of the SE area, but snow confined to the higher parts of Thanet.
  3. Ian Docwra
    I lived in Ashtead from October 1981 to 1986. I recall the 1981/2 winter there fondly.
  4. Ian Docwra
    Epsom, though, is north of the Downs, so south-west of the Downs (e.g. me) may be a little different.
  5. Ian Docwra
    On 24 January here near Dorking the A25 was gritted the night (Saturday) before and there was a sharp frost. Snow started at about 0900 and was 12cm deep by 1115. The road was covered as if it hadn't been gritted at all.
  6. Ian Docwra
    Not necessarily. With a near-stationary front it can be surprising what a difference can be seen in a few miles. I recall travelling home from work to Epsom on the train in January 1987 and the snow depth at Worcester Park was around 6cm, whereas at the next station, Stoneleigh, it was easily 18cm! The snow at WP had been steady but light to moderate all day, whereas a tad closer to the front at Stoneleigh it had been heavy all day.
  7. Ian Docwra
    That certainly is a factor, but a dew point of, say, -1C while the air temperature is say, 4C, will probably not produce snow. Both temperatures are equally important.
  8. Ian Docwra
    It does seem as if this cold spell may end with a whimper rather than a bang, with temperatures gradually rising, rather than a dramatic, frontal change.
  9. Ian Docwra
    That IS rare; they more often come from the grey!
  10. Ian Docwra
    That would surely be cold anyway. Perhaps Kentish roulette?
  11. Ian Docwra
    No, I was wondering about the Met Office measurements' accuracy.
  12. Ian Docwra
    I really wish they would stop saying "temperatures will struggle" - no they won't; they are not living entities, they are simply measurements and cannot try to do anything.
  13. Ian Docwra
    Interesting - the Met Office latest shows temperatures have been rising all day in Kent and are 'now' (1400) at 8C generally.
  14. Ian Docwra
    As the air over SE England in the colder sector is forecast to be around 0C to -1C, how much warmer can it be in the milder area yet still produce snow? Not much, I would suggest.
  15. Ian Docwra
    Can anyone? Certainty is the factor that can only come during the event.
  16. Ian Docwra
    The BBC's take on the snowy weather in an item specifically about what they are, depressingly predictably, calling 'The Beast From The East Two' - just bung in a picture of fog; that'll do!
  17. Ian Docwra
    The lockdown probably increases the heat island as more people are at home (apart from the city centre itself) and are therefore using more heating.
  18. Ian Docwra
    The Dutch have always been proud of the availibility of their white powder!
  19. Ian Docwra
    Yes - "once the ground temp. hits zero" - exactly my point. It's warm at present (up to 10C) so may take some time to reach that point, rather than every single flake settling from the outset when the ground surface was at -6C as was the case on 24 January. The fact is that the ground can be, and often is, too wet for settling - the key is how quickly it cools to the required point.
  20. Ian Docwra
    No, I wouldn't drive unless vital in a yellow warning and I wouldn't drive at all in an Amber warning. A Red means I would simply continue not to drive at all. I have always associated Reds with the immediate and unavoidable danger caused by destructive flooding leading to, for example, the need to evacuate. Blocked roads and communities cut off are already covered by Amber. That was my point.
  21. Ian Docwra
    Hope they're not "steaming" or they won't last long!
  22. Ian Docwra
    Yes, but that's not dependent on the heaviness of the snow - the wind chill will be there even if bone dry. People seem to be expecting/hoping for heavier snow to lead to a red warning in itself.
  23. Ian Docwra
    Thanks. It just looks odd to go from, effectively, a certainty of snow to an impossibility, back to certainty and then impossible again. The other extreme, of course, is BBC/Meteo which goes to into ridiculous details 17%, 18%, 15%, 20%, 23%, etc.
  24. Ian Docwra
    The snow we had here in Surrey on 24 January fell onto frosty ground (-6C grass temp.), whereas this would fall onto wet, warm ground. That makes a huge difference. Freezing air above takes time to cool off ground that has been at 10C+ recently.
  25. Ian Docwra
    'Red' surely means a danger to life - is it REALLY likely to become that in the small area of EA and Kent affected by the heavier snow? I can't see it. The dangers of very heavy snow are totally different to those from rain (destructive flooding, etc). 'Amber' already covers the issues of being cut off, roads blocked, etc. A 'red' snow warning must surely be things like roofs collapsing for there to be a danger to life.
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