Ian Docwra

From 24 January - something to devour, perhaps, before whatever occurs this Sunday. Ignore the 'Bruno' part of the title - I clipped the section with our dog out to make it a reasonable length video. 1357642387_Snow24_01.2021short.mp4

HOW careful, exactly?!

My "1cm drifts" comment was jocular in response to the "0.2cm" level depth. Who knows, the North Downs could see 10cm+ but everything is speculation even up to the figurative last minute.

An example of BBC Meteo's forecasts' nonsense - screenshot from a minute ago - while the south of England is under a large area of heavy rain which has been approaching for hours, the BBC sticks to its "light showers" rubbish.

Also, with drifts up to 1cm, it will be tough out there!

For snow lovers, the good thing about the Jan 24th fall here in Surrey was that it fell onto frosty, frozen ground and settled immediately. The forthcoming snow (if any) would be falling onto warmer, wet ground and settling would be delayed by early melting.

That's what made 'The Beast' so rare - in early and mid-March we had several consecutive freezing days because the sky was grey for much of the time. Unheard of in mid-March here in the far south. Photo from 18 March at -2C (max).

Yes - I think we had a streamer effect in Epsom in December 1982. I recall coming home from work on the train and between adjacent stations (Worcester Park and Stoneleigh) the snow depth more than doubled!

Yes , I would assume that they must form the bulk of it, but some historical data too? Maybe not. In which case, references to what has happened in past, ostensibly similar, scenarios are of little value.

I think one of the problems with models using historical data is that we appear to be in a period of unprecendently rapid climate change and so history becomes less relevant. Of course, it's impossible to avoid the historical element, but its use becomes far trickier with SSTs, ice cover and thickness, atmospheric pollution and so on changing so significantly from previous decades. I have no solution, obviously, but it has to be accepted that we are dealing with a global data set that is changing so much that its behaviour becomes ever more elusive. Models' computing power cannot necessarily keep pace with increasing variables.

Yes, indeed, but I would have thought that models should take the data and trends and use them without skewing unduly to what usually happens, although of course using historical data in the mix too. I think 99.98% is a tad high for the UK's westerly influence proportion, BTW.

To use a gambling analogy, perhaps more akin to playing a roulette wheel with 36 slots at first but which increases by 20 slots a day. Uncertainly increases with time.

Hmm - isn't the job of models to use the data to predict likely outcomes, which would include the establishment of cold blocks? As none of them do so, I don't see where your prediction of it potentially being hard to shift comes from (much though I would like it to be the case!).

I just about remember the 62/63 winter in as far as I was pushed along our road in New Malden, Surrey in a pushchair and the snow was piling up ahead of me in a plough effect. A very vague but persistent memory. Christmas Day 1970 was a white one - my father drove to Whitton to pick up my aunt for the day and I went too. Then there was the stunning 78/79 when a true blizzard hit New Malden on the night of 30/31 December 78. I was up much of the nght watching the snow blow past the street light outside my window and steadily drifting against the cars. In the morning there was about a foot, with proper drifts. We still went to Rayners Lane to see family though!! My father's Rover P4 battled through like a tank. The '81/82 winter was superb (-7C on Christmas Day with deep lying snow and blue skies), and we had moved to Ashtead by then. The 80s had many good snowfalls, and I was in Epsom when the January 1987 event occured - well over a foot of snow in the town and serious drifts on the Downs. February 1991 was memorable as I had been skiing in the Alps and returning to Gatwick was hard to tell from leaving Geneva! The flight nearly didn't go at all. I got home to my flat to find a slow drip in the bath for the week had frozen in the outside downpipe completely and it had to be thawed with careful use of a blow torch. -15.5C that night in my parents' garden in Ashtead. Having got all that nostalgia out of my system, I have serious doubts about the supposed easterly blast this weekend. I think it will affect eastern England from the Wash northwards most, with the SE, sadly, missing out. The continental cold pool is just not widespread and cold enough to exert the required influence with so much very mild air so close by. The Greenland high starts to weaken a little by Saturday allowing the UK low to survive without being pushed away SE. The easterly flow also weakens and warms a little, especially with the North Sea being unusually warm this winter. The SE sees sleet/rain showers, or even a SW, relatively mild plume if the low fizzles out and drifts away. Who do I need to pay to make my scenario wrong?!

May I ask why your posts are in bold? I'm new to the forum so I've probably overlooked something obvious. Thanks.

You're quite right - I quoted the wrong thread topic there, but I just thought that it had wandered away from weather of any kind and the posts were more suited to the general chat/Covid areas.

Quite right - I thought I was in another thread! I'm new so still navigating the site!

Is this the weather models thread? It seems now to be a C19 discussion thread! Are those who claim to hate certain models because they don't predict their dream weather actually serious?! I'm finding it hard to tell in some cases.

I can't explain it, they just do!

The Met Office forecast now talks of air coming from the "eastern continent" - do they mean Vladivostok?!

I think it needs to be borne in mind that not everyone using this thread will want snow/cold - some may be hoping to avoid it and are keen to follow developments just as much as those of us who would like deep white.

Just been for a walk - misty and damp, with no wind and with increasing sunny intervals here near Dorking, Surrey. 11.3C and feeling very warm in the sunshine. Short sleeves!

Indeed; the BBC output is markedly poorer than when the Met Office provided the basis. Does anyone here not realise that MeteoGroup is the provider? I have sent countless examples of the awful quality of their output to the BBC, with no meaningful responses. It is a classic case of value-for-money being sacrificed for plain cheapness (at least I hope it's cheap!). Having a set of models is one thing, but the sloppy way the output is provided to the public via the BBC is quite another. Typos and grammatical errors abound and the whole thing looks like it has been rushed out every time, as if it was desperately urgent breaking news. There seems to be no checking for quality and there are countless contradictions within the detail, which, basically, is too great to be useful.

Showing light snow for Southend for three days but hardly touching 0C - more often in the 1-3C range.

Yes, I've just realised that - don't know what I was thinking there! That still extrapolates to freezing or just below at the surface but there doesn't seem to be an origin cold enough to provide that after the sea crossing.