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Malarky

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Posts posted by Malarky

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    The uncertainty in the mid-extended range remains this morning with anything beyond day 5/6 remaining very tricky. 

    The theme seems to be for the 00z to dissolve blocking and cold, the 06/12z suites improve the situation only for the 18z to go mental with the cold, rise & repeat. 

    I think we’ve had dry and cold, slider heaven and Azores high in the space of 24 hours.

    Maybe the pendulum swings back to settle on slider heaven 🤷‍♂️

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Could the tighter spreads on the ensembles, than perhaps we’re used to, be due to the models not having to contend with an Atlantic system just as the blocking is getting established.

    I remember during most other recent chases we’ve had that factor, with fine margins in the storm track leading to vastly different outcomes, even in the short term.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

    I'm going to post some grabs from this morning's EPS while we wait for some new ops, because I thought they look great at day 10 for anyone like me who mainly just wants to not see a raging Atlantic flow.

    Could contain: Comics, Book, Publication, Person, Pattern

    The greatest spread is to our west and northwest, this is the case with the GFS and GEM ensemble suites as well this morning.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Outdoors, Land, Nature, Person, Outer Space, Astronomy, Face, Head

    The two cluster reps for the middle of Christmas week are jet-free...

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, OutdoorsCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

    ...and look, they're cold too!

    Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Pattern, Graphics, AccessoriesCould contain: Plot, Chart, Art, Person

    The jet signal stops being zonal around Christmas Day, and then fades completely through Christmas week.

    animkdm0.gif

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

    Wow, that’s quite something.

    • Like 1
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Can squeeze out a xmas northerly if the pattern is less stretched out like on gfs! Just need weaker lows. Ecm seeems to be overplaying Atlantic influence right now and bar the ECM op id say a xmas northerly is the direction of travel so far today.

    The GEFS were a clear step towards cold this morning, yet there seems to be an attempt to make negativity the first thing people read/wake up to this morning. Weird.

    • Like 11

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

    No it's not confusing. I thought it had support from a couple of members but only a couple. But then on very close inspection it does actually head off on its own right at the end. So technically it does have an outlier couple of days to it:

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Smoke Pipe

    The main issue is that only a couple of members support the operational. The vast majority trend mild.

    So don't pin your hopes on something with such little support. Not unless a whole cluster of others come on board.

    If only one of the models was showing promising output this morning I’d tend to agree. 

    • Like 5
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