[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Interesting! I'm seeing signs of my prediction of a pre Christmas scandi high being resurrected this evening. The gfs was toying with this possibility days ago in the extended. Scandi highs do have a habit of cropping up at relatively short notice. Gfs control and mean attached. 

Amazing the lack of intensity in the pv there.

Can’t help but think nothing is off the table with a profile like that.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Definitely Ok Si!

That trough gets so far south even our Iberian friends would feel the chill if that was to come about.

What’s that, about a 500 mile difference on the 0 isotherm from run to run?

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

Good Heavens!!!  
 

BFTP

Only 4 days to go!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

And ecm showing the lovely same trend this evening. Tonight's day 8 compared to this morning's day 9 and yesterday's day 9. Massive difference in the tilt. This is why November's negatively tilted atlantic troughs were so important - carbon copy of November 2009.

So many little upgrades dotted all over that chart. It’s still far enough out to evolve further in a cold direction

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Way into FI and past where I want to look, however, absolutely nothing is signed, sealed and delivered past day 5 nevermind day 8.

Will be interesting to see where this falls in the ensembles.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

I'm waiting for a run to show the Asian vortex head south towards the UK, might get close on this one

Actually quite an ominous chart to look at, that.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

It isn’t quite there but the GFS has shifted towards the others.

There is another cold pool being ejected into the European trough and the Atlantic system should behave more favourably with more energy going south east.

There aren’t that many bad options on the table.

Retain the cold for the foreseeable, or suffer a temporary blip followed by a return to cold.

Atlantic steamrolling the pattern a highly unlikely scenario now.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Just now, s4lancia said:

Oh my.

Reinforcements arrive for our block and the next low stopped in its tracks way back in the Atlantic. Cold going nowhere.  This is one gorgeous chart

Would those two lows to our NE swirl around each other over our vicinity do you think?

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Do we have any verification stats for the big models for sub-tropical hurricanes that spring up in December once a decade?

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

2 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

I spy no polar vortex over Canada

It’s over us on D13 according to the GFS!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

In the past "average" northerlies have produced 5-10cm widespread inland fron troughs with heavy streamers coming inland. There are too many examples to list. Instead this northerly is set to produce sporadic dustings away from the far NW.

This is what would have happened if the pattern was ever so slightly east, we'd have had more active troughs and showers. Instead we have been placed in the least stable part of the low near the centre. 

Question is, would you ever trust your bones again if they were wrong?

I wouldn’t trust myself to make a cup of tea.

It seems to be an event where the human element, which is missing from raw model output, has higher weight than in a “typical” situation. Maybe I’m wrong

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

5 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

There is a huge lack of cross model agreement at the moment past that Azores low

We do need to keep in mind that:

1.) we are transitioning into a weather pattern that we know what models are inexperienced with

2.) a tropical storm/disturbance forming in December is not at all that common.

3.) this is a tropospheric rare event and not a stratospheric warming event

They’re always were going to be wobbles and I expect these to continue for a small while yet.

at this juncture, you’ve got more chance of predicting two weeks lottery numbers correct 

 

I’ve got a feeling the models will be nowhere near right on the trajectory of this low at this stage. Feel it in my bones.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

Worth noting by the way that the low that becomes our Shannon entropy amplifier is currently in the process of trying to become a subtropical storm.

Just how successful it is on that front will have significant ramifications going forward and isn't something you can usually expect the dynamical models to be very precise on. So it's really no wonder that we're seeing such a wide spread of velocities and trajectories down the line.

More twists and turns to come.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thank you. That low certainly giving models something to think about. Just do  one I say. Less complicated.

If we could see the next few days it looks like it’s a temporary blip. Keeping my focus on the reliable timeframes.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

My milk bottles are going to be frozen aren’t they.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM solution this morning starting to look a bit cleaner than recent model runs generally at T168:

Looks like the low will slide with cold air in place.  

The fabled Christmas turkey pv, with a GLH delivering the stuffing!

 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Right, that’s it, stop the models. We’ll take this one thanks very much!

Please can we lock in D 2-8 now! Please!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Just a little bit messy.

It’s like someone walked into a weather shop and said “I’ll have one of everything please”.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Fantastic update on the 12z guys  been away most of the day and tomorrow as well but back for now my minions!!!!!clearly missed some wiked cold runs this evening!!after viewing the ecm what a run up until 216 hours!!!!that is one huge outlier and i mean massive!!not worried one bit as it will come around in the morning!!!enjoy the snow and cold as we are now 2 or 3 days away from the start!!!!

Hope you’re ok mate means doing you proud at the mo.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

What a great set of ens apart from the op and control  infact this is one heck of an upgrade isn’t it

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Just now, E17boy said:

Morning peeps,

here we go another day I am so weary when I come in here in the morning. Would still me one please tell me there’s been no downgrades and it’s still on .

My dads second death anniversary tomorrow so the mood is s bit low just need the models to cheer me up.

have a great Sunday all

We are very much in the game. My condolences to you for your father.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 minute ago, Malarky said:

That is beautiful.

And surely closer to the anomalies we’ve been seeing?

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem ends with a super long fetch northerly from Asia, 

One thing I will say, is ukmo, gem and GFS, all have different ideas by 144, but all of them cold at the moment.

That is beautiful.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Cold still, the low less of a monster on this run 

Signs of colder air being wrapped around underneath us to our South East at day 8? Increased margin for error?

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Imagine a slider with a hurricane/severe storm  - blizzard central 

All under 10 days away.