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Mark Smithy

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  1. Mark Smithy
    Well spotted! I missed those! In terms of whether GFS has been exaggerating maxima, this will be interesting today. Given that it was already 26C at 10.00 today I would judge that their 31C (couple of 32's I notice) maxima for today will easily be reached and probably exceeded:
  2. Mark Smithy
    Thing is, it doesn't quite make sense to say they only use ECM because they have touching 41C on Monday which is a good 4C above ECM's raw figures.
  3. Mark Smithy
    Oh really? I didn't know that. They don't touch GFS / UKMO?
  4. Mark Smithy
    Curiously the BBC / Meteo Group are still going for Monday as the hottest day: 40C 'or even potentially touching 41C'. This certainly isn't borne out by the GFS etc. which has Tuesday as the hottest.
  5. Mark Smithy
    Yep Azores High is knocking on our door again but as we know there's a huge difference in those 200 miles. One is warm and sunny, the other allows Atlantic fronts over the top.
  6. Mark Smithy
    Curiously the BBC Meteo Group forecast from 10 hours ago had Monday as the hottest day on 40C and Tuesday at 39C. I don't think they're right about that. But they did say the UK record "will be obliterated" - their word. BBC Weather - Home WWW.BBC.CO.UK Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.
  7. Mark Smithy
    Yes indeed: good points. Maybe also RM Chivenor which, as you say, is right in the low ground coastal spot between Bideford and Barnstaple
  8. Mark Smithy
    Morning Roger. Given that the heat is pluming from the south across land mass I have no issue with that kind of temp showing up in Brittany but I do agree about the oddity of some of the temps. If you look at Devon, you can see a 22C on the south coast at the same time as 39C just 40 miles away on Exmoor. And if those Exmoor temps are correct then I can't quite see the logic of it not being in the Red zone.
  9. Mark Smithy
    Ah okay. I meant in the sense of the record being 38.7C so the fact that we are expecting that to be broken, smashed even, means we are breaking historical records.
  10. Mark Smithy
    Interesting! ECM is out on a limb compared to most of the others but history would be on its side.
  11. Mark Smithy
    So are you saying Darren looking at all the models that you don't think 40C will be breached anywhere on either day?
  12. Mark Smithy
    If this was a cold-snow event we would probably now all be saying that it was 'nailed on' I think? Inside 48 hours and all that. I'd say it's over 80% that 40C will be breached on one of the two days, probably as early as Monday. I would love to see the models show a good breakdown with rain and I'm hopeful that rising humidity on Tuesday will set things off. I look to ECM precipitation charts with forlorn hope!
  13. Mark Smithy
    They weren't 'so poor' though to be honest. I think you're being pretty selective there and may have come in with a preconception that they were going to be out, then hunted down erratic readings, still well before final temps for the day have been verified by the French met office. GFS was accurate today for the UK and I see no evidence-based proof that they were inaccurate for France.
  14. Mark Smithy
    So GFS 6z projected maxima for the UK today compared to reality look just about spot on to me. Maybe a couple of stations a degree high but also some a degree low. I can't really see any evidence to take a pop at them for today at any rate and I was approaching this with an expectation of exaggeration. Evidence doesn't support that.
  15. Mark Smithy
    Yep I still think Darren is jumping the gun. It's better to wait a few more hours and get the final verified figures. SW France figures by GFS don't look too far out and that's where the plume is.
  16. Mark Smithy
    Nothing wrong with doing a comparison. I think it's a great idea. But you're assuming the final score at half-time
  17. Mark Smithy
    The BBC - Meteo Group modelling is now for 41C on Monday. And although they have printed 40C on Tuesday they think it may reach 41C on Tuesday in East Anglia. Notice too the warnings about rising humidity. And a very uncomfortable night on Monday
  18. Mark Smithy
    That's extraordinary isn't it? Astonishingly good model forecasting.
  19. Mark Smithy
    This is a bit wild. The GFS is not out on a limb here but has support from UKMO and a number of other models. In fact, it's the ECM which is more out on a limb. Just hold fire a bit. You may be right but ... wait!
  20. Mark Smithy
    KW you may be right but you are jumping the gun and getting a little over-excited, if I may so. As of now, which is 14h00 zulu time, the GFS 6z looks like it is going to be pretty close to spot on with today's UK 15h00z max temps. We can confirm in about 90 mins.
  21. Mark Smithy
    I'm keeping an eye on how the GFS 6z max temps compare today with the reality: Meanwhile I've just noticed that GFS is suggesting that the hottest place in Britain tomorrow will be ... Exmoor at 34C. That seems quite extraordinary to me? And then a 39C over Exmoor on Monday. Really?????! Edit. In fact, today as of 13.30 RM Chivenor, edge of Exmoor, is the hottest place in the UK so maybe they are onto something.
  22. Mark Smithy
    That's a really good idea to check model accuracy, albeit clearly there are some differences with the UK plume event. Can you keep us posted on this KW? Particularly interested in temps at, say, 12z, 15z and 18z for comparisons. p.s. And I assume by 'z' you are on the exact same zulu time as France i.e. not one hour out?
  23. Mark Smithy
    That's extraordinary! Has there ever been such a persistent outlier operational in FI?
  24. Mark Smithy
    Thanks for posting this. Seems to be a definite trend with UKMO and GFS, which means two consecutive record breaking days are now on the cards and a hot night in between.
  25. Mark Smithy
    Unlike most holiday destinations and indeed many countries abroad, there's no relief from the heat at night with aircon. This puts considerable added strain on the body: UK heatwave: Why 'tropical nights' could be deadly NEWS.SKY.COM Britain could hit 40C during the day next week, but night-time temperatures may also break records. A Sky News analysis shows how often 'tropical nights' have occurred in the UK over the decades, and why they are...
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