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JayAlmeida

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    Just a final post on here guys as I'm done chasing charts for another summer.

    It all looks very predictable to end August now looking at the models and reading tonight's posts.

    Suppose we can't have 2018 and 2022 every year.

    The atlantic does seem to have won even though I wouldn't discount the idea of a more sustained period of HP in September.

    Its par for the course in these types of summers.

    The models have performed really poorly this year and the background drivers have driven me mad. Still waiting for that 20c isotherm and I'll probably be waiting until next July.

    Just wana say thanks for everybody's thoughts and it was nice to discuss the charts on here with you all for another summer.

    I dont do winter chart chasing as our winters are very predictable in the NW and I really couldn't be bothered getting led down the garden path for another 8 or 9 months 🤣

    See ya next year guys hopefully our luck and the model accuracy will be better.

     

     

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    2 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

    Not messing around @Man With Beardit's not looking very nice for the end of the month, however it could still feel quite pleasant out of the rain and when the sun does show an appearance.   

    Think Tamara said it all in regard to the north american mountain torque event and what effect its having.   

    Massive difference on the ensembles from earlier in the week now.

    I really couldn't see the extended HP influence coming off as the models have failed so many times now this summer.

    Looks like we are ending up with maybe 10 days of seasonable weather in July and August that doesn't have rain or a North Westerly/Westerly influence.

    I dont bother chart chasing in the winter but as others have mentioned this summer has had a very wintery influence both in weather and model output verification.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    What about this weekend? It looks okay for many and very decent across central/southern England.

    image.thumb.gif.f2fa1d0ed87228524450116604300fdc.gif
    North west Scotland suffers on Saturday due to a wrap around feature return rain into the region, otherwise most are fine with good sunny spells.

    image.thumb.gif.a59cc72271658e436fb229e21cfd9e11.gif

    Sunday is similar with the north west seeing showers but again the rest of the UK looks decent, average temperatures in the west and above average in central/eastern areas. This just seems like a throwaway comment based on the model output at 8/9 days out that ignores what is happening in the next 72 hours.

    Compared to weather we've had in July and August I'll take it but it's still massively frustrating considering what was previously modelled and the heat across the channel.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    Predictable scenario on the ECM this morning with northern blocking making inroads on Saturday and sticking around until day 10. This keeps any heat pushed down in place over mainland Europe and eventually brings LP over the top of us yet again. July and August are that bad we cant even tap into a plume that would have had our name all over it last summer with the 10c isotherm clipping the south on tuesday now rather than the 15/20c isotherm as shown on earlier runs.

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    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    The GFS doesn't actually look that hot considering the 850hpa temps but I would definetly take it compared to what we've had for the past 6 weeks. If it was the same period in July you would expect mid to high 30s.

    The ECM for next Thursday is looking very similar to yesterday's GEM for the same day. One thing to note is that many of these exceptional runs have been outliers. We are also going into a period where things looked much better at a similar range but have now since downgraded.

    Amazing output it has to be said but it hasn't often translated to amazing weather this summer has it?

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    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    Looks like we have humid volatility and heavy rain this Friday followed by a cooler airmass than was initially predicted for the weekend but at least it looks pretty dry.

    The GEM brings up a plume day 8/9 with some real heat but it doesn't like the idea of the Mon/Tue plume reaching the UK now as a result.

    No real agreement amongst the models about next weeks heat so its currently looking tenuous at best.

    Edit: The GEM 00z was sitting quite high in the ensembles 

     

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    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    37 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

    Bit of an unrealistic sharp temperature gradient for next Monday on the latest GFS I would say.

    Low 30s for the far south east but struggling to get above 20c for Midlands northwards, likely due to rainfall. Just not sure how that would be possible. There is that very hot airmass just across the channel.

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    Definetly a South East only affair with the GFS today due to the pesky weather fronts. 30c could be achieved at a push on Friday everywhere else looks more or less average or slightly above. Mainland Northwestern Europe gets a proper 6 day heatwave on the 12z with temperatures over 30c almost every day from Thursday. Germany in particular is looking very hot into early next week. 

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I know rain charts are notoriously inaccurate at this range but... 

    For Friday the GFS 06z brings the rain in about 3-6hrs earlier than the runs over the weekend. Quite frustrating considering its supposed to be the warmest day.

    Doesn't really matter I suppose as all of the warmth seems to be located on the SE now anyway. 

    It is a massive backtrack on what was expected before last weekend it has to be said.

    I'm dubious about any potential plumes being modelled past day 7 as we have been taken for a ride far too many times this summer.

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    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    6 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

    There's a lot of uncertainty basically in what could be potentially to come on Friday and I suspect it'll be to do with the orientation of the High pressure and the trough.    The ECMWF hovmoller I have to say was encouraging, not a walk in the park settled, but not terrible either.    

    Has the Hovmoller for next weekend changed as much as the models have over the last 72hrs?

    I must admit I don't really understand it.

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    5 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

    Why is it the BBC computer forecasts change more often as we get closer to next Saturday? for a few days every update showed wall to wall sunshine from Wednesday, now it's chaged to showing some forecast updates with rain on just Saturday.

    The forecasts will chop and change quite a bit between now and next weekend. I have even seen them do this the day before at various intervals. Not sure what computer models they use.

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    9 minutes ago, danm said:

    GFS and UKMO continues the trend of recent runs…steadily improving this week, becoming warm and sunny for many. Low pressure then moving in for Saturday before high pressure builds again for the south on Sunday and Monday.

    UKMO on Sunday:

    image.thumb.png.13f4cd101c5b977c58610496717e4ea3.png
     

    GFS for Sunday and Monday:

    image.thumb.png.32e7ac26e17be798f72008d74935c3b6.png
    image.thumb.png.8b50a410239a16c3f4340fae1cb57fea.png

    Its annoying that the low in the atlantic is being modelled so far north now. If it was down in the bay of biscay next weekend would be a different story.

    NM

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    25 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

    This chart seems to indicate to me better weather towards the end of the run according to the GFS 12Z.   

    create_gif.php?model=GFS&member=OP&var=1

    All I can see is the re-emergence of Northern blocking and the GEM has a strong signal for this aswell. 

    To think we where actually debating whether +35c was gona be possible or not a few days ago.

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    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JayAlmeida

    57 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

    GFS 00Z seems to go all HP by the end of the run as the link below suggests but the general theme is changeable.    

    create_gif.php?model=GFS&member=OP&var=1

    The models are not looking great this morning it has to be said.

    The trend now seems for the plume to be pushed too far east giving us a hot Friday night and thats it. The 15c isotherm barely scrapes the south now.

    The strength of the UK ridge seems to have been overestimated as it topples with very little resistance. Then its back to unsettled by the following week.

    This is why it's important to take 7-10 day charts with a pinch of salt even if there's cross model agreement.

    Summer 2023 you have been awful 

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