JayAlmeida

Just a final post on here guys as I'm done chasing charts for another summer. It all looks very predictable to end August now looking at the models and reading tonight's posts. Suppose we can't have 2018 and 2022 every year. The atlantic does seem to have won even though I wouldn't discount the idea of a more sustained period of HP in September. Its par for the course in these types of summers. The models have performed really poorly this year and the background drivers have driven me mad. Still waiting for that 20c isotherm and I'll probably be waiting until next July. Just wana say thanks for everybody's thoughts and it was nice to discuss the charts on here with you all for another summer. I dont do winter chart chasing as our winters are very predictable in the NW and I really couldn't be bothered getting led down the garden path for another 8 or 9 months See ya next year guys hopefully our luck and the model accuracy will be better.

Looks very similar to the June setup with HP anchored to the NW.

Massive difference on the ensembles from earlier in the week now. I really couldn't see the extended HP influence coming off as the models have failed so many times now this summer. Looks like we are ending up with maybe 10 days of seasonable weather in July and August that doesn't have rain or a North Westerly/Westerly influence. I dont bother chart chasing in the winter but as others have mentioned this summer has had a very wintery influence both in weather and model output verification.

Compared to weather we've had in July and August I'll take it but it's still massively frustrating considering what was previously modelled and the heat across the channel.

Predictable scenario on the ECM this morning with northern blocking making inroads on Saturday and sticking around until day 10. This keeps any heat pushed down in place over mainland Europe and eventually brings LP over the top of us yet again. July and August are that bad we cant even tap into a plume that would have had our name all over it last summer with the 10c isotherm clipping the south on tuesday now rather than the 15/20c isotherm as shown on earlier runs.

Sums up our luck since the end of June.

Realistically where does the GEM fit in the pecking order these days is it still in 3rd place? When it throws up runs like the 12z it does make me wonder.

The GEM always makes me smile Cutoff high

The GFS doesn't actually look that hot considering the 850hpa temps but I would definetly take it compared to what we've had for the past 6 weeks. If it was the same period in July you would expect mid to high 30s. The ECM for next Thursday is looking very similar to yesterday's GEM for the same day. One thing to note is that many of these exceptional runs have been outliers. We are also going into a period where things looked much better at a similar range but have now since downgraded. Amazing output it has to be said but it hasn't often translated to amazing weather this summer has it?

Looks like we have humid volatility and heavy rain this Friday followed by a cooler airmass than was initially predicted for the weekend but at least it looks pretty dry. The GEM brings up a plume day 8/9 with some real heat but it doesn't like the idea of the Mon/Tue plume reaching the UK now as a result. No real agreement amongst the models about next weeks heat so its currently looking tenuous at best. Edit: The GEM 00z was sitting quite high in the ensembles

Saturday has a lower temperature profile now apart from the far SE aswell which is frustrating

ECM looking like a washout for Friday this evening once the rain arrives. Timing still TBD but it'll feel very wet under that strong August rainshine

Definetly a South East only affair with the GFS today due to the pesky weather fronts. 30c could be achieved at a push on Friday everywhere else looks more or less average or slightly above. Mainland Northwestern Europe gets a proper 6 day heatwave on the 12z with temperatures over 30c almost every day from Thursday. Germany in particular is looking very hot into early next week.

Dreadful torrential conditions on and off here in Liverpool from about 9am this morning. Shame that the majority of high summer has been and gone under these conditions. Nicer weather to come as the week progresses but no heat for our region by the looks of things now.

I know rain charts are notoriously inaccurate at this range but... For Friday the GFS 06z brings the rain in about 3-6hrs earlier than the runs over the weekend. Quite frustrating considering its supposed to be the warmest day. Doesn't really matter I suppose as all of the warmth seems to be located on the SE now anyway. It is a massive backtrack on what was expected before last weekend it has to be said. I'm dubious about any potential plumes being modelled past day 7 as we have been taken for a ride far too many times this summer.

Has the Hovmoller for next weekend changed as much as the models have over the last 72hrs? I must admit I don't really understand it.

The forecasts will chop and change quite a bit between now and next weekend. I have even seen them do this the day before at various intervals. Not sure what computer models they use.

Its annoying that the low in the atlantic is being modelled so far north now. If it was down in the bay of biscay next weekend would be a different story. NM

It'll keep the jetstream right over the top of us sandwiched between the HP to the north and the south

All I can see is the re-emergence of Northern blocking and the GEM has a strong signal for this aswell. To think we where actually debating whether +35c was gona be possible or not a few days ago.

September will be hot just as the kids go back to school bet your bottom dollar.

The models are not looking great this morning it has to be said. The trend now seems for the plume to be pushed too far east giving us a hot Friday night and thats it. The 15c isotherm barely scrapes the south now. The strength of the UK ridge seems to have been overestimated as it topples with very little resistance. Then its back to unsettled by the following week. This is why it's important to take 7-10 day charts with a pinch of salt even if there's cross model agreement. Summer 2023 you have been awful

Looking at the GFS18z its quickly turning into a carbon copy of this weeks "warm up" Wed-Friday look decent with the weekend looking typically divided NW/SE Then back to the dreaded northerlies.

Not necessarily ECM is known for overdoing rain especially at that range.

Saturday looking very wet for most of the UK on the ECM