JayAlmeida

The GFS 00z showing some more signs of summer in FI for the first time in a few weeks. Hopefully its moving in the right direction and it has been the trendsetter so far. The other models don't agree and seem to strengthen the northern blocking. It is Probably a massive outlier but I'll take anything as Friday's one day wonder was such a massive tease

Not sure it is day 10 aswell so pinch of salt and all that. It wouldnt take much shunt that heat our way though.

Brexit conditions @day10 from the GEM. Pretty much sums up July so far.

The long range ECM performed really poorly trying to predict the pattern for July at a similar range so I wouldn't put too much faith in these. Maybe the opposite pattern is more likely.

July 2020 was a real stinker in these parts until the final week 100% cloud coverage and suppressed temperatures.

I took a break on Monday TBH it just gets to that point where you have to. Theres nothing to be gleamed but misery if you want heat and sunshine. Upon returning to the charts this evening nothing has changed apart from the ECM rainfall totals which are ridiculous. I get to the point where I just check every 3-5 days for the sake of my mental health At least there's nobody moaning about how dry it it is now Silver lining's and all that

If the models can't agree on the exact position of trough @day7 i wouldn't worry about anything being nailed on beyond that. GFS had some half decent FI runs yesterday and it probably will on the 12z and 18z today. The Models seem to be struggling

Yeah it's rained all morning here and the charts look like more of the same beyond Sunday now. It gets to that point where its time to take a break from chart chasing and concede defeat in the shorter term. Gona take a break for a few days myself and hope some signals of improvement start to appear later in the week.

I think the long range ECM in paricular can be disregarded if you want accuracy at the range it provides which makes these charts not really that worrying. Its was predicting HP and way above average temps for most of July up until recently now its just amplifying the current trend by the looks of things. We seem to have our short/mid range patrern now anything beyond that is hokum

I think we have to give the GFS some credit this morning. It predicted a very brief building of heights with a return to unsettled conditions by Monday run after run with no wobble or deviation. The GEM and ECM both had runs where the low was kept west allowing HP to build and a plume to develop in previous days. Now they're all singing from the same hymn sheet for day 6. And we all know how what happens next. Days 7-10 look pretty awful on all of the models. After a week of pretty unsettled weather here in the NW the next 10-14 days aren't looking like much of an improvement. That would be 3 weeks of dross smack bang in the middle of summer.

The many faces of today's GFS runs @day 8. No real certainty of the actual patrern other than varying degrees of troughing in various positions. Could there be room for improvement over the next few days? 00z 06z 12z 18z

Its interesting to see how all the other models have caved in and showed at least one similar run to the GFS now. The GEM 12z is virtually plume-less.

Massive heel turn from the GEM between the 00z and 12z. Very romantic with the heart shaped low aswell.

ICON always mirrors the trends of the other models but a day or so later. The other models have backed away from this scenario today. Theres always tommorow and at that range we won't know the final pattern until mon/tue.

Wow some of the recent GFS runs are horrendous from start to finish out until the 18th. Wonder which model will be victorious.

Those clusters are pretty grim It's good job they're way out in FI. Looks like we have this pattern out til mid month with a very brief transient ridge of HP next weekend. With all of the outliers in the OPs runs its hard to pin down exactly what will happen.

After spearheading the HP recovery over the past few days the ECM crashes its own party from day 7-10. I'm going to assume (hope) this is in the minority of the ensembles.

Today's GFS runs are amazing with the 12z being the most ridiculous. Spot the difference in the two charts. One is 240hrs and the other 318hrs. We really have hit rock bottom Both are thankfully way out in FI.

Tentative signs of improvement on the ECM 00z from day 8 with the low edging just a little bit west from previous runs allowing heights to build temporarily. By day 10 there's a lot of heat over in mainland Europe. Looks as though that low will roll around over the top of us again. Isn't it nice of us to suffer so they can have a long hot summer. We are the atlantic buffer zone

Agreed. Both 2007 and 2012 had terrible June's so we've already had a much better summer and there's 2 months to go. The first half of July is notorious for producing meh weather. Lets see what happens

July 2020 was pretty horrendous especially for the north.

I dont think its really that productive to check the long range charts every day as they are very low accuracy to begin with. I check most of the model output runs each day so it easier to just check Mon and Thur ECMWF 46 to give a long range overview I like to see the beginning and end point rather than the journey itself. Thats what the short range models are for.

That looks like a pretty big downgrade. We've gone from the 7th to mid month now.

The ECMWF 46 is starting to push back the recovery now compared with last Thursdays charts. Not looking good if the long range is starting to follow the trend aswell. Note that the temp anomaly is a lot cooler than it was. Thu 22 Mon 26 Thu 22 Mon 26

Shows how bad things have gotten when this fairly average run is the majorly positive outlier