JayAlmeida

Back to no man's land this evening...

A certain song by Crowded House springs to mind.

Surely this can't be right? I thought London was staying dry until October?

Our winters are pretty meh in NW England. They are almost always grey, sludgy affairs with next to no snow. I think folks over the pennines fare much better with regards to seasonable wintery conditions.

That GFS 12z is incredibly deceptive at first glance. The 10 degree isotherm does a merry dance around the UK for most of it without really settling over the top of us for very long. Most of the heat is over France and the low countries which means us folk up north get the worst deal. Dont forget that the SE has barely been below 25c the last 5 days. Its frustrating but they just get the best deal. Its only one run and things could improve for us as we get closer. I feel as though the GFS struggles with our temps anyway especially this far out.

GFS looking 50/50 again with the 06z trending back to HP. We'll probably get a troughy 12z and a ridgy 18z to further confuse things. Second half of this upcoming week looks good so thats something.

Definitely in a the typically British phase of summer since the heatwave up north. Cloudy but dry Wed and Thur with Fri and Sat being pretty wet. More rain forecast for today and tommorow also. We seem to be getting 3-4 day weather patterns so far this summer. Was hoping for something a bit more sustained (in terms of decent weather) in August but its August in the North of England. I would definetly sacrifice 3 days over 30c for 10 days of sun at 23-25c if I had the choice. The record breaking temps where great but I would have preferred a month similar to June of last year. The upcoming week gets progressively better so I suppose there's something to look forward to in the shorter term.

Pretty grim GFS 00z past day 8 it has to be said even for the SE and Northern France. Atlantic domination for the first 10 days of August.

Whats up with the GFS 12z on wetterzentrale? Its been stuck on the same frame for 2 hours.

Just been perusing the way off fantasy land of the GFS 18z extended and there is a fair bit of heat at various points in August. Just for fun obviously

Some decent summer weather from the middle of next week on the GFS 18z. Temps back into the high 30s in early August for the south aswell. A bit of a scandi high developing which has been notably absent for most of this summer.

Latest NOAA squeezes the HP ever so slightly from the north in the 8-14 day range. Correlates fairly well with todays model output. Any heat will be over France (if any). One thing for certain is the ridge itself with the exact positioning still up for grabs. At this range expect much chopping and changing.

GFS 06z breaking the boredom with the return of a familiar setup. Won't be as hot but much more pleasing to heat lovers...

More changes on the NOAA 8-14 day chart. Some trans atlantic ridgy-ness occurring.

After a decent build of heights towards the end of the ECM 00z it now wants to flatten the HP at day 10 before it can fully assert its influence on the 12z. Could be a case of 2 steps forward 1 step back for the next few days. Shouldn't really complain after the amazing spell of weather we've had but I feel like its back to chart chasing for the moment. There does seem to be a lot of of heat building over Spain and Portugal again on the model output. It would only take one decently placed low to tap into that heat once again. Swings and roundabouts I suppose.

Strange chart

Oh dear next Wednesday is looking very chilly even for the SE on the GFS 06z.

Another day another 8-14 day NOAA chart. More movement on what is usually a pretty static pattern on these charts. Seems to be in line with other models predicting a build up of HP on the East Coast of America compared with yesterday. Little blob of HP just into ireland with a Scandi high still notably absent

Not if its past 7-10 days out

The GFS seems to have amplified the heat potential of the plume and extended its influence into Monday. The rest of the run is pretty bad but not to be taken as reliable at this point IMO.

Interesting development on this evenings NOAA 8-14 day. It moves the LP troughing ever so slightly to our NE leaving us in a bit of a no man's land. I dont claim to fully understand this chart but it seems as though the Scandi low is less influential?

There are massive variation(s) between the models with the only thread being a plume of some nature. Timing, duration and trajectory of the associated low(s) are all up for grabs at this stage. Even the three GFS runs today handle things differently. Looks as though this current plume has fried their efficiency at predicting the next pattern. The models are back to struggling with anything past 5-6 days.

Amazing GFS 00z for heat/summer lovers. The other models all push the plume east with LP moving in before the plume can establish over the UK.

GFS 18z wants Tuesday as the hottest day whereas the BBC is adamant that the peak is tomorrow. Much more widespread heat all the way up the North Sea coast.

As others have pointed out previously the GFS is pretty bad when it comes to cloud forecasts even a day out.