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JayAlmeida

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Everything posted by JayAlmeida

  1. JayAlmeida
    I have to agree! The ECM 12z downplays the breakdown and looks like a quick rebuild of HP from +240 hours. Can't believe I'm hanging my hopes on the ECM after that awful GFS12z run
  2. JayAlmeida
    The GFS 12z a bit of the old horror show this evening as Alex DeLarge would say. GFS looking more like the ECM output as of late. Still feel like there's wiggle room between now and Mon/Tue when we will be in the more reliable timeframe. Just hope this chart is a distant memory by then
  3. JayAlmeida
    These models are guna flip until they have to make their mind up on how these troughs play out. Probably won't be resolved until early next week.
  4. JayAlmeida
    Little Sunny Sanctuary in Northern england on Wednesday Makes a change
  5. JayAlmeida
    Can the UKMO ever be trusted again after this doozy?
  6. JayAlmeida
    The GFS 12z has a similar scenario to this with the initial cut off low threatening to join up with the atlantic trough over the top of us. Really hope this doesn't come off.
  7. JayAlmeida
    The 00z and 06z look much better if you like HP so its 2 - 1 to high pressure at 240+ hours with the GFS today so far......until the 18z
  8. JayAlmeida
    Feeling hot, hot, hot in the far away fantasy land range. Maybe hints of a Spanish plume teaming up with a scandi high? Probly not but its nice to hope. GFS looking much more pleasing in the long term today.
  9. JayAlmeida
    Looking like the coldest place in Europe today folks. 15 degrees with a Brisk northerly in Liverpool. Feeing cooler than that and pretty autumnal. All change from tomorrow tho
  10. JayAlmeida
    Thats the problem
  11. JayAlmeida
    The ECM is determined to target us with those lows. Frustrating as most other parts of Europe are under the 10 degrees isotherm or above.Its still singing from it's own hymn sheet but the GFS may also come to the same conclusion over the coming days if today's trends are anything to go off.
  12. JayAlmeida
    The GFS 06z is my preferred outcome in the fantasy range and 3 out of 4 of the GFS runs had a similar patterns yesterday But it looks like LP wins out in that range today. I know the 240+ range is really unreliable but it tends to give a general flavor of what the models expect to happen. Just have to wait and see.
  13. JayAlmeida
    Your welcome Just using the charts in front of me. I've only been here about 15 hours so you win when it comes to seniority. Well done.
  14. JayAlmeida
    Just as the GFS changes its mind again the 00z was pretty unsettled during the second half of next week and the 12z looks horrible past 174hrs and at 240hrs it's game over. I love your optimism but the models are really struggling with the cutoff lows. We see charts of boiling heat interspersed with green blobs deluge patterns.
  15. JayAlmeida
    Evening all, Would like to just say hi as I've just joined the forum after being a long time lurker and weather fanatic. The model output has been crazy the last few days with the GFS finally coming around to the ECM's way of thinking today just as the ECM changes its mind again. It was so adamant about HP way Into next week whilst the GFS was throwing up about four different scenarios per day cant wait to see what happens over the next few days.
  16. JayAlmeida
    That low is a real pain and is causing havoc with the forecasts as of late. We tend to see what we want to see and the GFS 00z and 06z look much more pleasing to my eye in the extended range. All to be resolved as anything past 7 days can only be taken with a pinch of salt with the current level of uncertainty.
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