JayAlmeida

All I see on this thread is MOGREPS this and MOGREPS that. This image springs to mind when I hear the words mog reps...

Short lived plumey thing a week tommorow? ECM, ICON and GEM seem to think so...

After a day of decent runs in FI the GFS 18z turns things unsettled again for the end of July. Definetly an outlier for today but could be a more prominent solution over the coming days. Only similarity with the NOAA charts is HP out to the west so thats a plus in my book. The low just sits in place from Monday to Friday which is pretty meh...

Evening all First time I've posted in this thread as you can usually find me posting charts in the model output thread. Very Interesting few days to come for the NW. Can't believe the 34.5c record has stood for so long when you think of all those classic summers and we never got close. Think we mite be levelling up!!

Just for fun went back and looked for the first 40c chart (of dozens) That range is pretty impressive by the GFS. Its definetly the trend setter.

Looks familiar to me and an indicator for Tuesday evenings weather perhaps...

Saw Gavsweathervids long range JMA Update last night and it had a HP dominated August so fingers crossed. Really can't be doing with a typical British August like last year.

All of the 00z runs seem to have dropped the idea of a smaller plume event from next weekend onwards. Things are looking pretty slack and uninspiring for the final part of July.

The 18z has gone nuts! Never thought I'd see 41.4c for Knowsley. Madness.

Panic on the streets of humberside

A few of todays GFS runs seem to be wanting to create a weaker plume scenario in 10+ days time before the atlantic finally breaks through. I know a lot of people are desperate for something cooler ASAP but I really hope the breakdown doesn't last too far into August once it gets going. Last August was an incredibly frustrating month. On a side note I never thought I'd see chart after chart with temps above 34c or above for the NW. We are about to see an unprecedented spell of summer weather.

GFS now struggling to hit 40 now in the south but steadfast in bringing more widespread heat to England. In the NW the GFS 00z is showing 37c possible next Monday and 38c possible next Tuesday. The likelihood of those temperatures is still pretty low but interesting nonetheless (especially with today's wobbles). Those temps would smash the current records for Liverpool (34.5 in 1990) and Manchester (33.7 in 1976). All the amazing hot spells we've had over the years and those temperatures have stood for 32 and 46 years respectively.

Prefer a red bullseye to the usual green ones we get this time of year And bully's special prize...

As others have mentioned the ECM could be setting up a rinse and repeat high at day 10. HP to our west with another swirling low west of Portugal and I think we can all guess what happens next.

Crazy times when a single day high of of 40c is considered a downgrade. GFS OPS didn't get anywhere near that temp yesterday on the 17th/18th.

Most northern temperature records would be toppled if that 18z run was to come off. much more widespread heat throughout the UK. Massive downgrade for the south My my how the tables have turned *sarcasm*

Really quite surprised at the temps today vs what was predicted by the models even yesterday 3-4 degrees difference in some places.

Today and Monday are probably the best for the NW. The lack of rain is a welcome bonus considering how much we tend to get. Whatever your opinions on the accuracy of the GFS cloud forecasts its still looking cloudy on Tuesday. More sun Wed and possibly Thu but those temps are definetly 'as you where'. On the Friday just gone (8/7) the GFS had 30c on 3 out of its 4 runs for Manchester for the 12th and its been on the slide ever since. Todays GFS 00z is even more of a temp downgrade from yesterday's runs for tue-fri in the NW. Max temps are: Tue 23 Wed 20 Thu 18 Fri 23 I get what your saying about next weekend but there's still so much uncertainty IMO.

The irony of your username juxtaposed next to this chart.

Yay we might finally get above 30c in the North. Really can't see this happening if the GFS struggles with temp accuracy 5 days out. The GFS 18z always seems to take that days trend and turn the volume up to 11

Nothing particularly inspiring for those North of Birmingham over the next 5 days looking at the GFS and ECM today. This supposed heatwave is now beginning to look like brief spike of heat on Monday which breaks down to become slightly warmer than normal on Tuesday then it's as you where until next weekend. The cloud cover being shown on the GFS is a nuisance aswell. I'm pretty sure we got a more sustained spell of decent weather during the heat spikes in June.

I hope your right There was also a slight downgrade on the 00z. It seems keen on bringing the clouds back aswell now. Could possibly be a consequence of a lower jetstream

Next Tuesday looking only slightly above average for the north now. Massive downgrade on the max temps of about 7c for NW England on the GFS 06z compared with yesterday's runs. Looks like we'll be getting 1 day above 25c now in the reliable. South still looking very warm/hot throughout. Fine margins I suppose.

Two consecutive days in the high 30s not something you see every day at this range.

And its back like a bad penny Not as blisteringly hot as prior runs with a maxima of only 38c. Just the GFS doing GFS things I suppose