JayAlmeida

Looks like everywhere but the SE will be below average next week again for the 3rd week running looking at the GFS 00z. Not seen more than a day or so of temps at or above 20c for a while now and thats not changing anytime soon. Haven't looked at a chart since Monday and nothing has really changed in the meantime. Feels like groundhog day

Cant believe it's going to be another 3 weeks before any significant change occurs after what was originally expected to be a brief blip during the first 7-10 days of July this time last month. Whichever way you slice it that would be one of the longest periods of consistently unsettled "summer" weather in the last few years. Hopefully things will improve before then

Had few days off from chart chasing and I feel much better for it. Doesn't look like there has been much improvement looking at some of the posts on here. So far in July any improvement has been pushed back from today (20th) until the beginning of August and looking at some other posts am I right In thinking the overall improvement could be the middle of August now?

Lovely sunshine today but the strengthening NW winds really make it feel like April or May and not the third week of July. Could feel it even more on my bike ride as the path I use can feel like a wind tunnel. Quite chilly

Today definetly looks like a deluge. We are in an extended spell of really poor weather up here. This July feels like payback for June and will go down as one of the worst. It does look better from tommorow but those temperatures are awful for mid July with a cool 17-18c. It was 36-37c up here this time last year. Really hope things improve in August but by then we will have had 5 weeks of changeable weather smack bang in the middle of summer.

A loosening of the current vice grip that low-pressure has on us would be a start and then take it from there. Maybe the Metoffice isn't too keen on the AAM rise impacting our weather in an overly positive way. They can be quite bullish trying to predict anything past 2 weeks anyway. "Starting the period.... we have a low confidence of no certain pattern emerging but more showery especially in the North and West. Potentially locally hot in the South East....etc"

Checking every model output run is as masochistic as playing Mr Bobby's eponymous No.1 single on repeat at the moment.

With AAM on the rise from now until the beginning of August I would expect a positive response from around the 26th of July. It looks like AAM will plateau or fall again from August 1st so things may have actually started to turn unsettled again by mid August. If you look at the charts provided by @MattH the current weather pattern correlates well with trajectory of the AAM. Just have to wait and see though.

Not sure about the stats but as I keep saying the July of 2020 was very poor and lack of sunshine was a key factor especially in the NW. Just checked the charts this morning and the models really have doubled down on the unsettled theme since Friday. The ECM and GEM consistently had HP at day 10 last week but its all gone now. The GFS has been the most consistent model throughout this summer. We could be 7-10 days away from the models showing any improvement within a reliable timeframe. That means its probably going to be at least 10-14 days before that improvement actually happens.

Had a quick look at todays charts after a few days off and I'm glad I took a break TBH. That awful ECM 12z from Friday seems to have set the trend for next weekend. We're irrevocably Stuck in a weekend trough-monday to Friday improvement-weekend trough pattern and we're now going into week 4 of said pattern. I will Probably check the charts in the morning one more time and then have an even bigger break until next Friday. Its a waste of time checking every day as we seem to be a long way from any improvement. Forgotten what high pressure over the UK looks like now.

Yeah I think that tug of war will continue over the next few days. I'll be skipping the models until Monday when then the final week of July will be in the reliable. One thing is certain any tangible improvements seem to keep being pushed back again and again.

ECM 12z looking like a northern blocking groundhog day but there's no real consensus on the progression/retrogression in the 7-10 day period between the big 3 models and as such all of 12z runs arrive at different locations @+240hrs.

As previously posted the Metoffice 10 day update video had a NW flow as the most likely trend til months end so it must be on the money.

I admire your optimism and steadfast dedication to the idea of summer returning. I also admire the attention to detail and overall scope of your post(s) I Just hope it gets a move on sooner rather than later.

Coming up to three weeks of this weather pattern on Monday with no concrete signs of improvement on the models. Most of us wouldnt have minded 7-10 days but its really outstayed its welcome now. The LP just seems stuck to us like a magnet. Its funny that a few of the long range models predicted a scandi ridge for July but we're going to end up with a scandi trough.

June was really good up here but as anyone knows a good june rarely leads to a good summer overall unless its a classic. The way July is shaping up this summer is anything but a classic. Kinda beginning to run out of positives to be fair after three weeks of this dross. If we're waiting for August to swoop in and save summer anyone who lives in the UK knows how that usually goes down

The GFS is really keen on keeping the unsettled theme going in the reliable with all improvements being meagre and only really being positive if you compare them to what we currently have. Summer doesn't really get a foothold until the final frame. The ECM and GEM keep showing tentative signs of improvement but it always seems to be at @+240 hrs with each run. This generally means any improvement is stuck in limbo. Earlier in the week it was looking like things could start improving by the 20/21st but its been pushed back every day since until the 24th and I wouldn't be surprised if this push back continued.

Models have had a bedroom accident overnight but the only thing that's certain at day 10 is uncertainty. The reliable looks better than what is coming up over the next 5 days. More runs needed as you lot say

That looks to me like the start of a bit of a ridge if the Low pressure to the North and East plays ball. Once that 10c isotherm comes in it will feel like a massive improvement compared to what this week has in store. Especially for us in the North.

Lets agree to disagree then I'm pretty sure it'll be an outlier anyway.

Compared to now i would say its definetly more summery than these on again off again old dudes prostate showers we currently have. A.K.A The Hans Moleman pattern

I'm guessing the ECM 12z is a massive outlier as its...well....erm....summery by day 10.

The models are definetly showing signs of improvement even if it is all @240+hrs. We will see a few curvevball runs over the coming days (that's just the way the models are) but we are moving in the right direction. The 40c heatwave last year ended around the 20th of July so maybe that date could be the beginning of a better spell of weather this year

As always the ECM is very generous with the precipitation

I think we'll have to suffer a few more days of amazing azores ridge dominated charts @+240 that don't verify but we'll get there in the end. I've got a gut feeling (the most accurate model BTW) the last 10 days of the month could be the time for change. The 20th isn't in the reliable timeframe until this coming Thursday so its all to play for. I had a sneaking suspicion it may have been