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JayAlmeida

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Everything posted by JayAlmeida

  1. JayAlmeida
    Whenever I hear the words jungle music I cant help but think of this guy
  2. JayAlmeida
    ECM ending on a bit of sour note with the heat not really establishing over the UK Fri-Sun. Quite a bit of divergence between this evenings 12z runs. Weakening Scandi ridge and pesky northern blocking to the NW Mainland NW Europe looking hot its still uncertain for us
  3. JayAlmeida
    Is tonights GEM an outlier? More than likely but it still looks nice for this time next week.
  4. JayAlmeida
    Do cold winters tend to follow cool/wet summers in a weak nino type setup?
  5. JayAlmeida
    Definetly a new trend developing today it seems. Will it lock in tommorow or will the models conjure up something new?
  6. JayAlmeida
    Looks like Fridays yer lot if your after heat and don't live in the SE. GFS 18z seems to now be following the other 12z runs by pushing any warmth away fast to be replaced by showery interludes by the 21st. Scandi ridge never really gets going on this run. What a massive dissapointment
  7. JayAlmeida
    Haven't seen MOGREPS since the summer thread last year. It was the go to for a few members on here during the heatwaves in July and August last year. Its always nice to get a different perspective.
  8. JayAlmeida
    Just have to see where the 06z falls in the ensembles. Massive contrast to yesterday's 06z run. My guess is we will end up somewhere in the middle.
  9. JayAlmeida
    Which three days though? this mornings GFS runs cant quite make their mind up
  10. JayAlmeida
    After weeks of sunshine and showers with suppressed temperatures we are now one of the warmest regions in the UK. Love it
  11. JayAlmeida
    I was going to wait until Friday to check the models but I just couldnt resist checking today. Pretty unanimous agreement on a plume later next week amongst the big 3 on all current runs. First time I've seen that in a long time. We've had so many improved 7-10 charts that haven't verified since June so I'm trying to keep my expectations in line. Exciting stuff nonetheless.
  12. JayAlmeida
    Saw a few runs like this for the 19th and 20th last weekend on the GFS and now they seem to have resurfaced. It is encouraging but as we have seen with the upcoming 2 day wonder (which downgraded) reality will usually fall short of expectation this summer. Would be nice to go out on a high after such a prolonged spell of cool and wet weather.
  13. JayAlmeida
    Looks pretty flat this morning in the reliable not going to lie. Last nights 18z was much better for next week. Seems as though there is heat on offer but its not going to the cross the channel. Tentative signs of something significantly warmer on the 19th/20th but thats too far away at this point. Apart from June summer 2023 will be remembered as a North Westerly dominated one.
  14. JayAlmeida
    GFS 18z joining the trend for next weekend now. If you could use one image to sum up our summer since the end of June
  15. JayAlmeida
    Just skimmed through tonight's comments and...Wow guys way to kill my enthusiasm The way the ECM has gone today wouldn't be surprised if it pushed the heat away on Wednesday night on tomorrow's 00z. Why can't we seem to catch a break this summer!? Cant wait until its over TBH. Bucketing it down or cool NW winds with temps in the hight teens for the past 5 weeks. With any optimism for next weeks warmup being reduced with every run now.
  16. JayAlmeida
    GFS 18z at 168hrs is like welcoming back an old friend
  17. JayAlmeida
    After a day of wobbles the GFS has reverted back to Mondays pattern for the 18z run. All to play for at this point just have to wait and see what the models decide over the coming days.
  18. JayAlmeida
    How's that for NW/SE divide?
  19. JayAlmeida
    Down to the ECM now I fear it will stick with the climbdown that was present on the 00z. Today feels like a bit of a reset in terms of the overall trend that appeared during the previous 48hrs. Still plenty of time though so I am trying to stay positive in spite of the jaded state these models have left me in over the past month
  20. JayAlmeida
    Just hoping a GFS 12z scenario doesn't occur with all the heat across the channel....again.
  21. JayAlmeida
    GFS 12z backing down even more it seems it has really let itself down as of late. Can we please disregard the GEM forever this is getting silly now. How many times has the heat been restricted to mainland NW Europe since the end of June?
  22. JayAlmeida
    The GFS 00z and 06z has backed down to a 2/3 day wonder and the ECM is the worst out of the models. We are 8/9 days away from the start of the change so plenty of time for firming up on the exact detail. Other posters like @johnholmes and @mushymanrob not convinced in their analyses yet so all to be resolved. Surely things have to improve at some point. Its just the level of improvement we need to figure out. Whilst the GEM is just doing what is usually does in this scenario
  23. JayAlmeida
    Haven't seen a NOAA 8-14 like that in 5 weeks Decent apetite for change within today's runs amongst all of the models looked like all was lost on Friday for the foreseeable. Will we get the day 10 push back on tommorows runs or will the HP come into day 8/9?
  24. JayAlmeida
    Another weekend in July another chart like this.
  25. JayAlmeida
    Disregard my previous post 2021 was a stinker of a summer from the end of July until the end of August. I thought it was a chart from July 2020. The June of that year was exceptional in NW England. Not so much for the south
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