JayAlmeida

I dont think the majority of the more "negative" posters are enjoying the fact that the current pattern has persisted nor are they trying to undermine the efforts of elite posters like yourself who try to offer some insight into the bigger picture. There just comes a point when you have concede defeat when we have been stuck in a poor pattern for so long with no improvement in sight within the reliable.

Here are a few snippets from Accuweather's summer 2023 forecast. Seems as though July has turned out a lot differently than was expected will August stick to the current pattern? Seems more like a June only forecast

Looking at the models today it appears that the GFS was having a wobble earlier in the week when it was hinting at an improvement. We could potentially end up with at least 6 weeks of this dross now smack bang in the middle of summer. Certain members have told us to not write off summer since the beginning of July but with false dawn after false dawn it's becoming harder and harder to stay positive. This chart pretty much sums up our summer since the end of June.

Last 5 summers. The longest period of bad weather for my area in that time has been 4 weeks. We are now in week 5 of a possible 6 out of the three summer months.

Nice to see you bring some better news. This is now the longest spell of unsettled summer weather in recent memory.

Pretty dissapointing set of runs today from all models apart from the GFS. There's definetly been a higher frequency of more favorable runs from it as of late with no wider support. Could it be having its first real period of inconsistency this summer or could it be on to something? Time will tell and time for another break until Friday for me. Cant wait for this horrible month to be in the history books now. What a stinker

Wow that was like an academic paper. Nice to get a mention aswell even if it was only to get a slap on the wrist

That looks like a chart from last summer The 18z had a similar pattern last night. It will be an outlier but its still positive to see charts like this after so long in the low pressure wilderness. The GFS has been the trendsetter and most consistent model so who knows. Have to wait and see

I'd take this (obviously outlier) operational run tho. Its day 7-9 and an 18z so on the borderline. Its been raining here for at least 8 hours now aswell

I've seen too many sandwich references on this thread now Still waiting for the other slice of bread to appear after July has been such a filling

Its the worst July I can remember with this weekend being the pièce de résistance. Endless rain today.

Cant be any worse than today up here in the NW. It's like a monsoon. At least France, Belgium and Netherlands are joining in now! You love to see it.

That red line does appear to be moving in the right direction.

Too jaded for day 10 charts now been led down the garden path by the GEM and ECM too many times

Long range ECM performance has been poor this summer so these charts could actually be seen as positive.

I've gone from checking the models everyday to just checking them Mon and Fri now The weather hasn't been good for a long time and its not looking particularly good going forward according to all of the data,models and anomalies. Weve had drizzle/heavy rain or sunny spells with very cool NW winds making it feel like early spring. Its not unreasonable to become fed up at this point. I expected a 7-10 day blip at the start of July before things started to improve. We are now 2 weeks beyond that with nothing to show for it. One slither of positivity to be gleamed is that this summer can't be as a bad as 2012 as a whole due to the good June.

The GFS has been top dog for most of this summer now unfortunately. From the 11th through to the 13th of July the ECM and GEM had day 10 charts with HP building for this weekend but the GFS was having none of it. We know how that has now turned out or should I say washed out.

That's better news and a very welcome addition to the rather lacklustre model output today has provided.

It feels like there's been positive signals for weeks now with no real improvement materialising in the reliable. This summer improvement train needs to get a move on as we're running out of track.

The NOAA charts are pretty awful for the 8-14 day period aswell. These have been LP dominated for almost a month now and have been spot on unfortunately.

Gotta say those 12z runs are all awful at +240 hrs. Only question is the positioning of the low and how deep the trough is going to be. Low pressure still very influential as we head into August. Won't be checking the models til Monday now. Pick your poison guys

Surely a negative CET is now on the cards for July if the model forecasting for the next 10 days verifies.

So stuck in circle of doom = summer over

That may be the case but I'd take 21c over 17c any day. Looks very cool even for the SE on Wednesday aswell. Suppose it won't matter under all that cloud and rain anyway.

Not really knowledgeable on background drivers but is that why mid/long range accuracy for July was so poor? Based on MJO predictions?