JayAlmeida

Wow its all looking a bit despondent in here now. I think we're gonna see some pretty nasty charts as we move into the reliable timeframe for the upcoming breakdown. Its always the same way when a pattern change locks in. Doesn't mean they'll verify especially past day 7. Just have to see what the models are saying next week. On the plus side the long range is looking pretty good as others have mentioned.

The GFS 06z was very similar not sure what its playing at. Others have said the 00z and 12z runs should be taken more seriously than the 06z and 18z when it comes to the GFS.

Rumors of a green blob a thon next week have been greatly exagerrated. Like the GEM the Imperious NAVGEM is here to save summer (sarcasm alert!!!)

Wonder if the Ec46 will change its tune tommorow with more LP for July? The ECM has been the most low pressure dominant model over the last few days.

Wow those temps are restricted to the E and SE only. 3-7 degree downgrade on temps for the West now compared with a few days ago. Suppose its fair enough as we have had the best of the weather for most of June. Feels like a period of chart chasing will begin from next week now as we wait for the summer to return.

GFS and GEM 12z flipping yesterdays meandering atlantic influence to a bit more of a ridge by day 8 as i said yesterday next week is still up for grabs. Will the ECM agree though?

I think the the only thing todays runs prove is that Monday onwards is still up for grabs. It could go a few different ways TBH Just have to wait and see what the ECM 12z has in store.

The GFS 12z is one for the bin and doesn't bare any resemblance to the 00z and 06z in the 7-10 day period. Maybe an outlier perhaps? instead of sweeping the heat away like the ECM 00z it slowly erodes the HP over the course of next week with any decent warmth staying across the channel from next Monday.

The GFS 00z providing a little fly in the ointment this morning via a pesky blob of LP amidst the high which produces some heavy downpours. Wonder if the other models will pick up on said feature.

The ECM is getting on the ale a bit early but it is Saturday night so i suppose it can be forgiven.

As doom and gloom as it's been with peoples interpretations of today's data the ECM clusters provide a little bit of positivity this evening

Bit of a wobble from the operational output with the GFS in particular being the worst this morning. It ditches the HP past 240hrs on the 00z and the 06z. Its a massive contrast to yesterday's runs. Below is the GFS 12z from yesterday and 06z from this morning both at 240hrs

Way out beyond FI but the GFS 00z showing more signs of record breaking heat.

Nice to see some more positive summer predictions. A few of the YouTube weather peeps are predicting a mixed July and a wet August due to the warming of the Atlantic and the developing El Nino. Mark Vogan in particular reckons the LP over the med will shift north in July and create a block. Very similar to the pattern that developed in 2021. Long range predictions are always tricky

ECM 12z moving towards the GFS and GEM now bringing that low in off the atlantic . Heat all week then finishing with a bang in FI.

GFS 18z and the ECM 12z bringing back hints of retrogression by day 10. The models have been hinting and pushing back this outcome for a while. Reminds me of the times in the summer when we have sustained bad weather and the HP is always stuck at day 10. Nice to be on the other side for a change. ECM 12z GFS 18z

One thing that has confused my non weather expert brain with regards to the upcoming spell of weather is how are the temps going to be as high as the models are predicting? All of that cloud and rain would usually mean suppressed temperatures rather than mid to high 20s.

GFS 00z and 06z pushing for widespread heat for most of England and Wales with no support from the others. It would only take a small adjustment on the 12z runs for the other models to follow suite tho. Funny how much of a temp change a lil nudge in the positioning of the 850s can make. Only certainty is that Models are continuing to struggle when it comes to doing their job past 5 days.

All the models seem to have settled for a typically average outlook now in the reliable. No real warmth but nothing particularly catastrophic either. Signs of high pressure and heat building for the first week of September. Cant help but feel a little underwhelmed as we head into the final ten days of August. Back to clouds and 19c for the foreseeable up here in the North. Edit: Just looked at the GFS 00z and 06z and most days are in the mid twenties so my moaning was a lil bit OTT As a man far wiser than me once said...

Massive East/West split on the GFS 12z (that's just England and Wales) max temp differences of around 10-18c most days. GFS favored this setup at FI range for the July heatwave and it didn't pan out that way. Some runs had 41c for the SE and 22c for NW England. It ended up being 40.3c (SE) and 36c (NW) GFS always seems to favor this extreme split only to spread the temps more evenly closer to the time.

You called it a few days ago mate when the GFS was producing horrendously unsettled charts.

Its progress after the troughy 6-10 day charts being thrown up over the past few days. I think that chart sets things up quite nicely for the final week of August. I know the south is parched but I for one would like to go out with a bang and not a whimper this summer. Getting used to this weather now. Hopefully we can conjure up some rain for the SE between now and then.

¡Ola Senor Azore!

ICON still not keen on a breakdown on the 12z. Pity its the ICON and it does tend to lag behind a bit with trends. Always nice to get a 4th or 5th opinion tho... EDIT: sorry to rehash the above post beat me to it by mere seconds feel free to delete.

The GFS 00z is exceptionally grim this morning and it has been the trend setter. The ECM looks better with more of an azores influence by next weekend and the GEM is firmly in between IMO. Looking at the end of the GEM you would expect the azores to ridge in from the 22nd.