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JayAlmeida

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Everything posted by JayAlmeida

  1. JayAlmeida
    I would be very interested to see if the GFS 18z re-introduces the plume as it has been missing/subdued for a fair few runs now.
  2. JayAlmeida
    If it's still there on Mondays charts for the 17/18th then we are in business. Still just a bit too far out at the moment.
  3. JayAlmeida
    ECM 12z wanting a noticeable cooldown Wed, Thu. Before doing the plume FI limbo thing again. Wonder if it'll stay in FI forever??
  4. JayAlmeida
    BBC is really underestimating maxima for Manchester on Tuesday if the GFS is to be believed. You guys are usually a degree or two warmer than North Liverpool and the same as South Liverpool/Liverpool Airport. The GFS 12z will probably be 26c
  5. JayAlmeida
    Tuesday is looking very warm nationwide but there is still some uncertainty. Wednesday is even more uncertain which is bizarre considering both are within the 5 day range now. The GFS keeps wanting 30-31c somewhere in the NW of England on Tuesday before dropping back down to 26-28c on the next run. Its currently 4-3 to the 30c option out of the past 7 GFS runs.
  6. JayAlmeida
    I'd take that GFS 06z all day long. Not showing the 40c plume (38c still possible) but much more pleasing on the whole. Would prefer 7-10 days of sustained HP. Not as much of a temperature yo-yo for the North either.
  7. JayAlmeida
    Much more widespread heat for early next week on the GFS 18z. Could be an outlier but i would be much happier with this kind of outcome.
  8. JayAlmeida
    38c in Chester on that one
  9. JayAlmeida
    Bit of a downgrade for next wed-fri on the GEM. 850hp uppers looking much lower as the hot air is pushed back to the continent. 2m temps in Low twenties from Wednesday onwards in my neck of the woods and they dont even hit 30 in the balmy southeast. Hopefully not evidence of a trend developing.
  10. JayAlmeida
    The uppers make a huge difference and maybe the GFS tends to be a little too optimistic in that regard.
  11. JayAlmeida
    The GFS consistently said 35-37c for the south during the build up to last months heat spike and it ended up being 32-33c if memory serves.
  12. JayAlmeida
    GFS going from West (Previous Runs) to East with epicentre of the heat but 41c is hit yet again. Apart from the obvious record breaking heat spike its a pretty mediocre run for those outside of the far SE past next Tuesday.
  13. JayAlmeida
    Sorry guys I spoke too soon...
  14. JayAlmeida
    Plume potential flattened by the model that first picked up on the trend. The GFS is having a massive wobble today.
  15. JayAlmeida
    Dunno if was being Captain Obvious there with that one. Just trying to give a counterbalance to the idea that summer will be over after the upcoming spell of decent weather is over.
  16. JayAlmeida
    Its way out in la la land but interesting to see the heat on offer for much of Europe at the end of the GFS 18z. Surely we could tap into some of that later on in the summer aswell.
  17. JayAlmeida
    UK weather: Brits set for summer sizzler with 41C heatwave as 'Bermuda High' closes in | Weather | News | Express.co.uk WWW.GOOGLE.COM BRITS are set for a summer sizzler as experts predict highs of 41C by the middle of the month amid concerns of a hose pipe ban. The MSM is starting to pick up on the more extreme GFS charts now. It'll be very interesting to see how things work out.
  18. JayAlmeida
    GEM looking decent for the NW so its not all doom and gloom. We definetly need the high to pass eastwards to get the best outcome.
  19. JayAlmeida
    GEM and ICON making the heat a bit more widespread early next week. One fly in the ointment is that the GEM wants to bin the decent uppers by next Wednesday though. Could be outliers just have to wait and see. Much more pleasing temperatures across the model output this evening in the shorter range. Over to you ECM
  20. JayAlmeida
    Call me picky but I dont find 18c that inspiring for July. Considering the pressure on offer and 850hpa temps being suggested by the models.
  21. JayAlmeida
    The GFS 06z is a really bad run for us up norf. Massive temperature difference between Eastern/Central and Western areas and that's just England and Wales. Scotland fares much much worse. The high refuses to pass to the east keeping this weeks pattern going into FI. Supressed temperatures and strong winds in the West with a much calmer and warmer picture for the east. The 00z was a much better run but it now seems like an outlier as the 06z has come more in line with the ECM and GEM.
  22. JayAlmeida
    Looks like summer is on hold for another week up here in the NW Might be time to dust off the BBQ once we finally reach 20c on Saturday Fingers crossed
  23. JayAlmeida
    Matt Hugo seems hell bent on a terrible summer and is now predicting that the La Nina standing wave is going to hinder any sustained rise in AAM throughout July. Everyone seems to have their own wildly differing opinions of what's going to happen based on their interpretations of the data.
  24. JayAlmeida
    Don't you have to add a degree or two with the GFS? So 43c possible in the SE then? What has the GFS been puffing on the last week or so!? 45c+ for multiple days over on the continent.
  25. JayAlmeida
    The GFS can be thoroughly frustrating at times. In the summer It will come up with a recurring scenario run after run (usually HP oriented) around 14 days out then spend 2-3 days going around the houses before reverting back to the original scenario.
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