JayAlmeida

Tonight's 12z runs are pretty meh with the heat of previous runs all but gone for next week (ECM was never quite convinced anyway). The GFS doesn't want to get a proper ridge going until the 27th now and the less said about the ECM and GEM the better. The ICON seems to be the only model flying the flag for a decent ridge developing after day 7 but its firmly in the minority.

Well after it's two run wobble the GFS seems to be back on track with a build of HP at some point next week! Dont like that lingering low sticking around on Monday and Tuesday but we could see better weather as the week progresses . The ECM looks pretty meh and lacks any sustained heat and the GEM tries to build heat from day 8. After a few model wobbles we could end up with summer returning as predicted even if the ECM isn't quite convinced just yet.

The GFS 18z looks pretty grim and intent on keeping the recent green swirly snot going. Luckily it's in the minority of today's other GFS operational runs. One thing that's certain is that there's not much time left this summer and it would be nice to go out on some kind of high note.

So the ECM 00z is getting its massive 1025mb high pressure gazonga's out and shaking them right in our face!? Thought the GFS was the biggest tease!? Nice to see more positive permutations from the ECM this morning after the doom and gloom yesterday. That GEM run looks pretty dire though and at this point its completely up for grabs. Edit: The GFS has something closer to the GEM in the 00z with the 06z looking closer to the ECM. So we are looking at 2 potential scenarios for next week.

The GFS runs are looking really bad today from start to finish. They seem to have backtracked on the HP domination we saw over the last few days (especially FI range). The 00z GEM and ECM are looking way better but any sustained HP is past day 7. The model output is really struggling to predict a consistent improved pattern for mid month and beyond.

Summer aint been too bad up here and during the decent spell in July it was blue skys all the way for about 7 days. Feels like the overall impression of a good summer can be very subjective and localised so my condolences if you live in the south. The models continue to frustrate and are now intent on cutting off any feasible build of HP next week for the familiar return of cutoff lows by weeks end. The worrying trend is that any sustained ridging is being pushed back further and further on the GFS OP runs and it has never really been within the ECM/GEM range.

GFS giving us the blue balls again? Don't get too excited guys

Well after taking 6 days break from model watching due to being on me hols it's safe to say that not much has changed. Glad I missed out on the GFS nonsense over the last few days as it now appears to have corrected it's optimistic machinations for a more predictable August pattern. Mid month could still be more exciting as tonight's GEM suggests but we shall have to wait and see. The GFS has really proven itself to be number 3 this summer way behind the GEM and ECM

Heavy rain and weak thunderstorms breaking out this afternoon in Liverpool. Looking at the weather apps its going to last all day aswell. A warm and muggy 23c before the deluge now temps are 19c. Hello Mr LP oh how I loathe thee

Well looking at all of the model output this morning I think the weather is pretty much nailed on until the 5th/6th now and its not looking good A nasty little cut-off low swirling from now until this weekend with a brief reprieve until the middle part of next week when a proper trough develops and...well...you know the rest. Gona have little break from these charts now as mid month seems to be the target for project summer to resume. By that logic any positive changes won't be in ECM/GEM range until early next week and the GFS will just give us four different scenarios a day in the extended range until then. Make the most of any sun we manage to get for the next 10 days like Knight Solaire.

ECM adding to the flood woes if this verifies next week but @240 hours out there is still hope that it won't. I would be moaning if the HP was in this range saying it wont verify so I can use the same logic to remain positive but the signals are not looking good.

The ECM 12z looks interesting tonight with the low pressure not being as close to us from friday into next weekend. Hope this comes off as I am on staycation in the south east. Probably an outlier but still shows that we are yet to reach a consensus for next weekend.

The contempt part wasn't aimed at you. ✌ I was merely re-phrasing my original post so it sounded closer to 70/75% of gospel.

As close to gospel as can be gotten then is that better? And any disagreement with said assertion shall be met with contempt. Something like that...

Totally in agreement with this Makes me laugh when people take anomaly charts in the 8+ day range as gospel and then proceed to get highly defensive when you point out that anything beyond 7 days is speculatory at best.

I'll take your word for that

I'm sure the accuracy of these anomalies is about the same as the model output at 8+ days range so nothing to be overly concerned about just yet. There does seem to be a rather grim pattern emerging in the mid/long range output just hope they are wide of the mark.

To be fair the CFS predicted a boiling hot start to July this time last month so pinches of salt n all that.

Just lifted these CFS charts from gavsweathervids. I know the CFS is a joke but it's still rather worrying beyond next week. Long range consensus is pretty

Thats a long way off so we'll see. Did these clusters pick up the current HP domination at a similar range a few weeks ago?

The Manchester fume is palpable

Love that 29 degrees smack bang over Liverpool pity I'm working until 6. Might have to have a post work bike ride to celebrate.

I like that things are starting to look up now! Think the ECM has proven itself to be top dog over the past few weeks. Was expecting a decent first half of July as our weather pattern this spring/summer very much went against the grain (Cold dry April, cold wet May, warm sunny june) I know that down south had a wet second half of June but its usually the other way around. We seem to now be settling into the conventional July/August pattern. Just hope August isn't as disappointing as usual.

Backended would mean a pretty good summer here in NW england overall as June was probably the best since 2018.

After a miserable start turned out pretty good up in Liverpool. Decent amount of sunshine and strong winds appear to be subsiding. Bit of a strange thing going on with my two weather apps with regards to temperature tho: Weather.com says 19 degrees Accuweather says 24 degrees