Summer8906

LetItSnow! Here I think we're certain to be in the wet category. Whether we progress to very wet depends on whether any of the slack lows or troughs produce further prolonged spells of heavy rain in this area. Sadly we tend to miss out on the diurnal heating type of convective activity here, so doubt that will contribute much to the eventual total.

LetItSnow! 1967?

LetItSnow! Correct!

Alderc 2.0 Certainly ironic that there was nothing yesterday, despite a big temperature gradient. Often seems to be that the most active fronts, even in the summer, are those with little temp contrast.

danm Here most of that period was sunny dawn to dusk - though we got about three days at the very end of May and start of June where it was cloudy until around 1100 or so. Mostly early spring and summer yes, though that is mostly, I think, because we just don't get NE-lies in July and August much anymore. I do remember some instances of the same phenomenon in September.

I guess when we get anticyclonic NE-lies in the summer we often get something a bit coastal California-like, as the North Sea is relatively cold. Alderc 2.0 Most of my time in the area was in spring, so temps were moderate anyway (absolute max perhaps 20 or 21) though I did also visit the LA area once (in 2004) for a short visit in early August and even then, temps were moderate (would guess around 23-25) due to the maritime influence. This was Long Beach area so even more maritime than downtown LA.

In Absence of True Seasons Not so sure, cloud build up during the day leading to showers and thunderstorms and an evening clearance is quite common in many climates, including, IMX, parts of continental Europe. The "grey mornings" pattern is typical of Mediterranean-latitude climates with a relatively cold sea - coastal California being a particularly good example including LA and its well known "June gloom". When I went there in March/April 2002 (not June admittedly) the weather was very like that, cloudy mornings with sunny afternoons and cloud rolling in again after dark.

raz.org.rain Mind you, I suspect high May CETs require sunny weather more than high CETs for the autumn, winter and early spring. With rather changeable weather being progged on the models I'd be very surprised if we challenge such years as 1989, 1992 or 2018. First 6 days of the month here were mostly cool by day, too (aside from the 4th) - as has been today. So at this location, 6 out of 13 days have probably failed to reach the mean max for the season, so far. True, we had 6 consecutive warm and sunny days but plenty of other years have had that, and 27C maxes in the first half of the month. It doesn't seem exceptional here for temp - "mild" rather than "warm" is the overall impression.

In Absence of True Seasons Surprised the sun is appearing with you, it's only got worse here! Reminiscent now of a bad day in August, too much light for it to be October-ish this time of day.

cheeky_monkey Lucky guess... somewhere in the back of my mind I thought I'd remembered 1941 as a front-loaded summer also.

cheeky_monkey Not something from WWII is it? I know 1940, 1941 and 1942 all had cold winters. Doesn't sound like 1940 so I'll say 1941. I say that as I can't think of another cold Jan/Feb combination since the war with the rest of the year matching your description.

OK here's one which I don't think has been done. January was mostly mild and wet, and Atlantic dominated. There was some particularly mild weather in the first week. A short coolish dry spell intervened around the 10th and the weekend of the 24th was also coolish and dull. Pressure was higher towards the end of the month. February was changeable, westerly, but not overly wet and often on the sunny side. It was also rather mild. March was mixed with some good warm sunny spells mixed with more changeable periods and was mild, and April was on the warm side as well as being dull and changeable but did feature a short cold spell with snow in some areas and warm, sunny weather at the end. May was warm but changeable with some notable thundery events. June was somewhat dry but also fairly cloudy and featured notable thundery activity on the night of the 1st. Really warm weather was limited to a few days in the second half of the month though there were a number of pleasant, dry and bright days at other times. The sole warm spell was followed by a thundery breakdown followed by a rare immediate change to a bright and fresh NW-ly, before dull and unsettled SW-lies arrived the following week. July started thundery and then was predominantly dry, warm and sunny, hot at times (especially at the end), with brief cool spells. August saw a gradual breakdown in the opening days to very wet weather via a sequence of frontal systems though it was initially hot. The month continued mostly changeable or unsettled with only brief breaks, though turned warm and sunny at the end. September started sunny and warm to hot but became dull and very wet in the second half. October had an unsettled start and end but lengthy fine spell mid-month. November was quite similar to October in some ways, while December was mild, wet and Atlantic-dominated but did feature brief cold spells, one producing lying snow in South Hampshire. It was stormy at times but could have been a good deal worse in that respect if certain low tracks were slightly different.

LetItSnow! Yes, I did think 1957 briefly but that, AFAIK, had a mild December. Will think of one myself but will just go back up the thread to check what's been done already.

LetItSnow! Hmmm.. had to think about it and considered a number of other years before coming to a decision. 1950? I know of the April snowy spell, the hot June and the cold December, and can't see anything which would contradict.

Catbrainz Re the Alaska location: overall, it looks a bit like our climate in some ways, but much wetter, but with temps around 3C lower in both summer and winter.

baddie Less here. I would restrict it to 6th, 7th, 8th, 23rd, 24th and 30th. One of these was bright with hail showers (23rd) but arguably that counts as spring-like, at least for the first half of spring.

AWD What will probably help in terms of rainfall totals is that the low is generally centred W, SW or S of us, so the winds will be less southwesterly than was expected a few days ago. This will likely lead to less rain but agree it doesn't look overly sunny. Nonetheless, looking at the models it's never really settled right out to FI. There always seem to be lows quite close by, albeit not especially intense, and with winds from an easterly point at times. It looks like there will be further spells of quite heavy rain every few days, admittedly with calmer conditions in between. Another month which is both cloudier and wetter than normal is still my bet, even though it won't, I suspect, be dramatically wet. But still waiting for a month that is drier and sunnier than average...

richie3846So do you mean higher or lower for London? Charts show a somewhat-cyclonic easterly which could mean either warm or cold this time of year.

An odd breakdown here. Yesterday saw Ac Cast at times and almost looked thundery, but as is typical for this area in these kinds of setup, no thunder appeared. Indeed the fairly small amounts of cloud dissipated in the evening to leave clear conditions by sunset. Then, oddly, sometime towards midnight, low cloud came in apparently from nowhere. There was no sign of it around 9pm. This has remained throughout today and has recently started producing light or moderate rain. Not even interestingly convective, more like a rough day in October. Is it too early to use the A-word? Not the first time this time of year, either. The Coronation Monday (May 8th) last year was distinctly Maytumnal. Whatever, not especially welcome, even though since Friday I've been expecting a poor spell of weather. We've already had way too much of this kind of weather for the past 10.5 months.

Indeed, basically a spring-less spring. This week has been more like summer than spring (not complaining though) but aside from that, the only period we had consistently spring-like weather in the spring was around April 11th-21st.

cheese Guess that's the effect of the Pennines filtering out a lot of the moisture - still surprised it would reach 20C on Wed though as it looks distinctly cyclonic. I'd have guessed temps would be around average for mid May. WYorksWeather Locally, here. Definitely felt warmer here than the last two or three days.

Probably the warmest day of the year so far, at a guess. Already seeing the start of a breakdown to the west with some "frontal" mid-level cloud - one day earlier than I expected. Does this indicate tomorrow will be unexpectedly cloudy or will the influence of the high push back west for a time?

B87 Distinctly mixed, though August would be a refreshing change from the norm. July sounds pleasant enough, too, as does September. October looks just like the last few (mild and wet), November looks typically dire - but December looks a really refreshing change from the mostly dire Decembers of recent years. I'd probably go with a good deal more than 45mm for May, though. May likely to be mild and wet, if only because the first 6 days were so wet and the 13th-15th, at least, seem likely to be very wet. A chance May could avoid being dull if high pressure appears beyond the 20th, I guess.

LetItSnow! I wouldn't call 2020 a classic even down here, I'd rate it as poor-ish but down here, we did get one dry month in the form of July (cool and dull first half, warmer with average sunshine in the second). Down here the real stinkers of recent years were 2021 and 2023. Of 21st century summers, only 2007 and 2012 were clearly worse than these two, though 2008 and 2011 would be about the same. Then 2015, 2017 and 2020 all about the same, followed by 2019 very slightly better, then 2016, and finally 2018 and 2022. All except 2018 and 2022, and perhaps 2016, I would rate as below-average, though.

WYorksWeather Won't happen, but.. it has been a while since a distinctly hot end to May, of the May 2003 type, for example - or, to a lesser extent, May 1997. So perhaps we are overdue a 29C maximum in May this year. I'd swap out the first 6 days of May 2024 for the first 6 of May 1990, though - or perhaps the first 6 of May 1995. Those two years still stand out above all others as having particularly hot starts to May. Would hazard a guess that those two hold the top two spaces for hottest first week of May on record - but perhaps cooler nights mean they don't, in a similar way to how July 1990 is surprisingly far down the rankings despite being phenomenally sunny and warm-by-day in this area.