Summer8906

*Stormforce~beka* Yes, odd the way the cloud stayed static all day and is now rapidly moving in. Guessing that it was a westwards-moving warm front (keeping it away) and now it's become an eastwards-moving cold front?

Scorcher Mind you, I'd guess it would be 25C a few days later. Put it this way, for me, far rather June 1975 (with its snow and sun) than June 2016 (with its damp drabness and unremarkable temps).

cheeky_monkey Don't worry, I think we'll all be jealous when it's high teens, cloudy and damp here in July while it's 25-30C and sunny with you...

danm Ah but as it's Canada one might imagine the temps will be right back up in a few days, and wouldn't mind betting the coming months will be considerably sunnier in Edmonton than anywhere in north-west Europe. I think I'd take end-of-April snow if it meant better summers.

Well it was very nice here, unexpectedly so, until around 15.30. Through the day there was a mass of cloud out to the west, but it wasn't moving any closer. There was also another area of cloud to the east, further away, and that too was moving very little. Shown on that satellite picture above quite clearly. All of a sudden though the cloud to the west has started advancing in (without warning) - so I guess that's it now for sunshine - oh well, it was nice while it lasted! Quite odd in a way as I thought the synoptics were showing more of an easterly developing mid week, with systems moving in from the east - yet the system to the west seems to be the one making the biggest push at the moment.

It wasn't atrocious, just generally unsettled with damp, humid air and fairly frequent light rain or showers - and with a constant nagging SW-ly breeze - aside from the first 3 days and the hot spell of the 19th-26th. I was out of the country for August 2023 but it does sound like the two months were very similar: August 2023 was cooler and wetter than normal here but that wasn't the case everywhere. August 2023 lacked the hot spell, of course, so would be worse overall. We generally do better in straight W-lies as long as it isn't too cyclonic. For example, July 2020 was better here than some other areas, and that was, IIRC, a straight W-ly month. It wasn't great (still cloudy, due to cyclonic conditions early in the month) but had a relatively pleasant second half, aside from the dismal final weekend.

Have to admit I don't remember that, fairly sure the last two days of April were wet and not especially warm but might be wrong. The May Day holiday was earlier last year (April 29-May 1), but I'm fairly sure that the Mon - and then only the afternoon - was the only decent day of the weekend. Then the Tues and Wed were quite sunny before the Coronation gloom fest...

Scorcher Not so sure as warmer and unsettled normally means more cloud, more humidity and more pervading damp with high-DP air. Colder and unsettled normally means some relatively pleasant dry, low-DP air, between the rain bands.

Alderc 2.0 Yes, GFS 06z op is non-stop unsettled until next Tuesday but I guess the 00z being better means there's still hope. In better news (for some), the return of changeable conditions for the week of the 13th takes a different form to recent runs, being a northerly rather than a full-on Atlantic onslaught. Should at least mean less wet and sunnier. raz.org.rain Not one you have to take though, look at 1989. Dismal Feb-Apr (though much less bad than 2024) then the weather literally flipped on May 1st. If only the same could happen this year.

Mind you I'd prefer dry with cold nights and average days than dull and damp with warm nights and slightly-above-average days! Hope this isn't a case of the dreaded "at least it will be mild" !

April to August nice but September to March pretty gross, a sequence of mostly grotty, damp southwesterly months. Interesting that the dull, damp and unsettled March 2017 was warmer than much nicer and much sunnier Marches such as 1990, 2007, and particularly 2012. Again it shows the effect of warm nights.

*Stormforce~beka* It definitely did feel humid earlier in the day, less so no. Perhaps because the RH and DP are higher today than they've been for some time, so consequently it has felt much more humid than I'm used to. Plus, last time we had SW-lies, the absolute temps were lower (being closer to winter).

Here I'd take May 2023 over May 2022 anyday! May 22 was mostly cloudy, humid southwesterlies with temps varying little day to night (extremely warm nights, slightly mild - but not warm - days) though we did get lucky with many of the weekends. May 23 featured 18 sunny days out of 19 from the 13th onwards.

Sun Chaser Mind you, isn't it just today and tomorrow when the west is worst? Isn't the second low pushing in from the east, thus making the west drier and brighter than the east later in the week? Not sure but that's my interpretation of the models.

Here, oddly, the weather has improved as the day has worn on. Currently mostly sunny, at the time of day which ought to see peak cloud as the moisture off the sea is joined by land-based convection. And yet it was overcast between 7-8am, when it ought to be clearer. Most odd. That said I think we are lucky, we're on the eastern edge of a clearer area. Masses of cloud visible not too far to the west.

On the other hand double-digit lows with not-especially-warm daytime temps suggests cloudy, humid and oppressive weather. May 2022 type stuff - a month I regarded as unpleasant. Clear, settled weather should maintain lows well down into the single digits this time of year.

Alderc 2.0 GFS 00z isn't quite as bad, to be fair.

It would probably be a better year than Jul 2023 - June 2024 is likely to be, arguably. The "cold year" above had a terrible summer - but some interesting winter months. May 1996 was also by no means the worst May of recent times: 1981, 1983, 1984, 1994, 2007, and 2021 were far worse. Likewise, reading about October 1974, it looks like there have been many far, far worse Octobers - including, arguably, all of 2019-23. In that "cold" year I'd rate the Jan-March, May, and Oct-Dec OK - which is 7 months out of 12. June 1972 doesn't look like the worst June ever, either, with slightly below-average rainfall in SE England. The bad weather would be concentrated on the Jul-Sep period: I do agree that those three months are amongst the worst on record. I'd be more inclined to leave the country if we had Jul 23-April 24 conditions every year until the end of time!

Nick L Never mind 21C, when will the first two-week-plus settled spell arrive? Now that really will be amazing (but again, it really ought not to be...)

stainesbloke You might get lucky as in this kind of synoptic London is always significantly better while we get constant damp and humidity off the channel - in addition to being further west and thus closer to the low. See many previous discussions on August 2019 (which was full of these kinds of synoptics) here vs London for example...

Been outside now. Very, very humid, sticky and oppressive today. Not nice at all. This week does seem to be one long low-fest. This low hangs around today and tomorrow, there's perhaps something of an interlude on Wednesday before another low moves in from the east this time on Thursday, all the way across the country before slowly retreating eastwards again through Friday and into Saturday. In better news the GFS 00z is killing off the weekend low, with something of a weak ridge across the SE. Still something of a SW-ly (albeit a slack one), so probably not clear blue skies, but at least it might well be dry. Next week continues to look ok, but most recent GFS runs are showing a return to a cyclonic rainfest of one sort or another for the week of the 13th. When will we get a prolonged settled spell? March 2025? Beginning to wonder...

As expected, southwesterly grot is streaming in and it's a pretty miserable start of generic low-ish cloud streaming in off the Channel. If you want an explanation of why most summers here since 2015 have been pretty miserable, today is it. This is the typical summer day of the late 2010s and early 2020s here. Southwesterly grot, generic dishwater cloud, and damp air. Not a lot of rain, but perhaps some passing light showers. August 2019 was very like this here, and sums up why I considered that a poor summer month.

Nick L Possibility of another 5mm+ today and tomorrow to get you over the 100mm?

Alderc 2.0 Both of them finally clear the unsettled weather on Tues 7th... couldn't make it up. WYorksWeather So only 10 or 11 here by the looks of it. It actually felt rather warm around 3 or 4pm, incredibly! As I said, it's not the temps that are the problem, it's the 10 months and counting of endless unsettled weather. I suspect the mid-year to mid-year period Jul 23-Jun 24 is practically certain to be wettest on record now. Doesn't look like May will be especially dry (though may avoid being wet), so perhaps only a bone-dry June poses any risk to the record I suspect.

baddie Start of 2013 perhaps, bluebells still out on June 2nd which was unprecedented in my memory.