Summer8906

raz.org.rain Ah, but is it fine weather or "at least it will be mild" weather?

ChannelThunder It did come here... for a time. Blue skies and small Cu clouds around 1400-1530 or so. However (and completely unexpectedly) dark, heavy clouds moved in from the SW and a spell of heavy rain passed over around 1700. Got thoroughly soaked as a result as in this kind of synoptic situation (cyclonic northerly with low moving away to the east) if the sun comes out later in the day, it normally stays dry. Certainly no sign of heavy rain around 1530 when I went out... the Cu clouds in the clearer air were not building fast so it didn't look like general showers were on the menu. Still rather cloudy now. Did anyone else get the heavy spell of rain this afternoon? What caused it? I would guess a trough that unexpectedly formed, it was certainly very trough-like in character.

Also it looks like the weather was unsettled as well as warm, which meant it could well have felt oppressively muggy and humid. 21C with a fair amount of cloud, and rain around, probably would feel oppressive at this time of year. On the other hand 21C with clear blue skies and low humidity would not.

I'd actually say the morning felt more like the end of winter, perhaps late Feb or very early March, due to the relatively dry airmass and N/NE winds.

*Stormforce~beka* I don't think this coming week was ever going to be settled as such, but the forecast seems to have downgraded compared to yesterday due to the lows being closer by. At one point that low to the SW was forecast to keep further away, meaning Tues and Wed might have been OK, with only the second low (from the east) influencing us. Still looks like settled from next Monday (GFS), perhaps - or even next Saturday (Met Office) if we're lucky. By far the best spell of weather here all year was the sunny period we enjoyed from around the 15th to the 21st, which was good enough to put laundry out due to the sunshine and dry air. But even that wasn't as settled as the models were suggesting, the high sticking further west. ChannelThunder That's the IoW? Hard to believe as I'm not so far away...

Wimbledon88 Yes, Tues-Thur looking a bit of a washout according to the Met Office: The dreaded "showers merging into longer spells of rain" by the looks of things, which is always a sign of pretty foul weather. One-or-two-hour periods of heavy rain separated by dry but dull and damp interludes. And coastal fog suggests a really, really grotty moisture-laden airmass. A really unpleasant midweek according to that forecast. Same idea as this weekend, but milder, and consequently more claggy, humid, oppressive air with pervading damp. Horrible, horrible, horrible. As I said above the one saving grace about the last couple of days has been the dry, low-humidity air when it hasn't been raining. Next weekend "could" be OK though, some models say no (GFS), some say perhaps (Met Office). So perhaps the worst of the weather will co-incide with the working week.

Puzzled as to how it will get up to 18C in all honest, the airmass doesn't really change - the wind direction changes but this is in advance of the low moving in, so it'll presumably be the current cold airmass moderated by onshore winds. I suspect it will be another day where it's rubbish on the south coast and acceptable in London, Kent and East Anglia, though. Anticipating a dull, breezy day here with frequent drizzle showers. Would guess a max of around 13-14C. So typical for Oct, Nov, Dec, late Jan, Feb, Mar and early Apr just gone...

Depends on the time of year. Overall easterly, but from November to February, northerly. Least favourite southwesterly as 9 out of 10 times, it produces grot.

Shunter It's presumably the cold north winds on its western edge, I guess. So the air isn't coming from the south, it's more a case of a low moving south-north to our east has provided a period of prolonged heavy rain without changing the airmass. One good thing about this colder air, though, is that at least it feels relatively dry when it's not raining. It lacks the pervading damp you get from mild and wet airmasses. For my tastes, the coming week will probably be worse - just hope the change to anticyclonic weather for the week after actually happens.

OK, will go with 12.5 and 60. Still can't call it but I guess it's typical for a month to be above average nowadays, so going with +0.8 above the 1981-2010 mean. Perhaps I'm being optimistic but I'll go with the month being marginally drier than the 1981-2010 mean. An 11th consecutive wet month would be remarkable.

danm Bit concerned about that col though, does that indicate a possible slow moving front?

At least one could argue this unseasonable cold is interesting in a way.

Downgrade on the GFS 00z now sadly, looks like every single day this coming week, up to and including Sunday, will be rather poor. Tomorrow has troughing in the isobars and thus will probably an overcast, breezy day with frequent drizzle showers - basically the same old cyclonic SW-ly stuff that we "enjoyed" for 9.5 months from end of June last year to a couple of weeks ago. Then the cyclonic SW-lies are replaced by cyclonic NE-lies, and then finally, next weekend, cyclonic SW-lies again. Utter joy. Probably the worst week since April 1st-7th. Low pressure influence every single day. Then, in perfect timing, settled weather starts to arrive on the Bank Holiday Monday (but not fully) and more properly arrives on Tuesday 7th. Don't get me wrong, better late than never, but...you couldn't make it up (from the POV of the Bank Holiday weekend).

midlandsun Should at least mitigate the risk of drought and fires in Spain this summer - hopefully.

TwisterGirl81 Greece is one. Too dry, too sunny and too warm there on the whole (hot summer followed by extremely mild and very dry winter, and unseasonable warmth this month), interrupted by very, very occasional extremely destructive rain events (Storm Daniel being the main example). What this summer needs is a mean easterly or northeasterly flow across Europe, high pressure to the northwest and low to the southeast. Essentially early June 2023 synoptics (the very dry first 9 days or so, with moderate temps) persisting all summer. Should even things out a bit with northern Europe getting a sunny summer and southern Europe a relatively changeable one (though still warm and sunny by our standards).

Weather Enthusiast91 I'd swap Sep 1993 for 2000, as the first 6 days of Sep 1993 were sunny and there was one sunny weekend later in the month (18th/19th). The 12th-15th or so and last few days of the month were, admittedly, perhaps the worst September weather I've ever experienced, though, along with just after mid-month in 2000. Interestingly I can't think of a single truly, truly dire September, 2000 being the closest match but even that had one or two short dry spells in the first half. Perhaps 1974 was the last example.

Can you tell that, though? End of April 2018 and 1989 were both still rather cold and changeable. In both cases things changed rapidly, admittedly more rapidly than appears to be the case this coming week. At this point in 1983 it was much worse, with May 1983 much worse than the models are showing for next couple of weeks - yet that was a hot summer.

Interesting, I'd guess that this was an instance of a warm front moving east-west into an Arctic outbreak with warm southerlies behind, but still with low pressure.

danm I was a bit doubtful about the Met Office's cold to be honest, as it has SWlies. I can imagine it will still be cool (I'd have gone for about 14C) for the end of April due to the lingering cool airmass, but not cold as such.

baddie I'd tend to say yes on the whole. The first fine spell here was shorter (just 6th-8th) and then there was a showery but bright interlude around the 23rd-24th. Easter Saturday was surprisingly sunny - and that's about it! Aside from the above, more or less continuous dull, wet southwesterlies - the second half was more autumnal than spring-like, aside from the 23rd/24th/30th. Slightly less bad than 2023 but not much. And April has been worse than 2023 so the spring is probably running about level with 2023 thus far. Hope so - to be fair you may be right, forecast bad weather in E-lies sometimes doesn't happen. True to an extent, though I doubt we'll get a repeat of 2018 simply because that was at the extreme end of the spectrum. May 2023, perhaps - but that wouldn't be enough to prevent it being a poor spring.

markyo "Tragic" is used a lot in an informal context though. e.g. "that performance was tragic" in the context of a live music or comedy act.

Wade ... and bad autumn and summer too, of course. Rare to get 4 poor seasons on the trot but whatever May is like, this spring will clearly be poorer than average. Just like Spring 2018 was poor despite a very sunny May. Spring 2023 wasn't great either, so perhaps that's now 5 poorish seasons on the trot.

danm 10C for mid Dorset. Must be the low to the southwest producing prolonged heavy rain and gloom, even still surprised it's suppressing the temps that much. Mind you the Met Office forecast for the whole of the London and South East area on Wednesday sounds very poor, no hint of 25C: "Monday cold, dry and bright. Tuesday fog or low cloud gradually clearing then scattered showers. Wednesday outbreaks of rain or showers arriving, chance of coastal fog. Temperatures becoming mild." So presumably high teens, dull and wet on Wednesday throughout the southeast I guess if that forecast comes off. First time also I've heard "mild" used as late as May, but I guess it gives a taste of the kind of weather, i.e. dull and damp but temps above the seasonal average. So a return to what we endured at the start of this month, I guess. Seem to be two lows, one to the southwest threatening dull and wet weather midweek (particularly Wed, possibly Tues also) and then, with little or no break, another moving in from the east producing more dull wet weather, perhaps, on Thursday and Friday. Has a very May 1984 or 1994 look about it. On the other hand the bank holiday weekend doesn't look too bad, Saturday perhaps slightly dodgy with SE England on the edge of the low (not as bad as Thurs/Fri) and Sun and Mon look settled currently with a slack anticyclonic northerly so presumably a return to cleaner air.

Difficult to rate this objectively: May 2018 had no lockdown so therefore has to be the runaway winner. All that sunshine in 2020 was effectively wasted because you couldn't enjoy it. Otherwise, 2018 had some thundery weather late in the month while 2020 did not so perhaps 2018 from a weather variety perspective.

1978 was the first summer I have any significant memory of, though I was living in NW England at the time. There, after the late May hot spell broke down, I do seem to remember it being consistently cool, dull and wet aside from a brief sunny spell around June 17th; a few days of fine sunny weather around July 12th; and a more prolonged spell of fine and dry weather in the last 10 days of August. Apparently it was a much better summer in the south: dry if on the cool and cloudy side. August 1978 seemed to be very different in the south versus the NW: in the NW 103% rainfall and 72% sunshine, in the SE/S just 57% rainfall and 101% sunshine, along with maxima 0.8 below average. 1977 I really can't remember though I do remember people telling me that "1976 was very good, and 1977 fairly good" in the northwest. A look at archives does confirm that. 1979 I remember being cool, cloudy and fairly dry in June/July (in the northwest) then cool, dull and sometimes wet in August (in the south) but turning dry and sunny at the very end. The standout event of August 1979 was a notable thunderstorm on the 23rd, which I remember seeing approaching during the afternoon - it was a polar airmass, the morning had been fairly bright but a trough moved in from the NW later in the day. This was my first memory of a polar-air summer thunderstorm, in fact; until that date I always associated thunderstorms with warm or hot weather.