Summer8906

I'd tend to agree here. FWIW, in the south, Summer 1993 could be summarised as follows: June - mostly warm and sunny. First 10 days hot at times with two attempted thundery spells around the 4th and 11th which came to nothing though the latter produced a couple of days of dull, wet weather. Then a week of wet, Atlantic conditions before a dry, warm and sunny final 10 days or so. The final Sunday of the month was notable for really intense sunshine - I got the worst sunburn of my life on this day, though admittedly I didn't take as many precautions as I should have done. July - first week continued June's warm and sunny weather but then there was a change to cool, dull and wet but without a thundery breakdown. I think the Azores high slipped south allowing cyclonic W-lies to spread over the country. From around the 10th until almost the end of the month conditions were very similar to July 1988, but at the very end of the month it turned drier though still cool and cloudy. August - first 12 days or so cool, cloudy, westerly weather but fairly high pressure so not that wet. Weekend of the 7th/8th bright and pleasantly warm. From the 14th to the 21st it was warm, dry and fairly sunny. Overnight 21st/22nd a Biscay low produced the month's only really significant rain event, with very cool northerlies behind. A few days of bright, very cool northerlies followed with occasional showers before the Atlantic high moved in and the end of the month was dry and sunny with average temperatures. So a fairly good summer for a combination of settled weather and lack of heat, though July was perhaps the second-poorest of the 90s and third-poorest of the entire 1981-2006 period (behind 1988 and 1992). June and August on the other hand provided much very "usable" weather.

Addicks Fan 1981 I guess if we hadn't had such wet weather in July 1993, then it might have been a similar summer to 1913.

Azazel I know what you mean but I'd say Oct-March. It's not quite as desperately dull as yesterday.

Given what we've had to put up with for most of the past 10 months, I think that pattern alone is quite good enough! Plenty of time for intense warmth later: frequent dry and bright weather is arguably all we need now, whatever the temperature. Even if the first half of May has a mean max of 15C, that will actually feel relatively warm given it's been in the 10-13 range for about six months now. Would certainly prefer dry, bright and coolish than mild but dull and wet cyclonic SW-lies, at any rate. Thankfully it looks like only one SW-ly day in the near future: Monday.

Alderc 2.0 Sorry to hear about your accident, hope you recover soon and manage to get away later in the year!

SunnyG Indeed, I'm not denying that. Clearly remember both the Sat and Mon being dire, the Sat being dull and drizzly and the Monday being just very dark and dull, having the feel of the first overcast day in late summer when you notice the nights starting to draw in. Sat 13th, one week later, was the start of the fine spell here. Fair enough that the May 2023 spell depended on where you are, but even still, the models were suggesting nationwide cool, changeable weather with slack lows for the 3rd week in May if I remember right.

SunnyG It often seems that way but perhaps it's because what we remember. I do remember the May 2023 fine spell came out of nowhere, I seem to remember even as late as the Coronation weekend, one week before the fine spell started, the models were showing somewhat cool and changeable weather, albeit not quite as bad as the dire Coronation weekend. The dry and cold second half of Jan 2023 was also a surprise with many predicting extremely mild, dull, wet and windy weather to continue all month. I will agree though that since end of June last year we've had a long run of promised settled spells that have come to nothing.

WYorksWeather I'd define "summer" as when the temp reaches 21C or more on the vast majority of days (let's say 3 out of 4). This can theoretically start happening perhaps around the 15th of May and continue until around mid-September so that would indeed be around 4 months..

True, though the cool and the sunny mostly didn't occur at the same time. August 1993 and 2007 seemed to be a mixture of warmish and sunny weather, and cool cloudy weather. Don't remember 1964 or 1977 but I do remember 1985, it was very much a month of two halves, sunny and warm until Live Aid (13th) and then mostly cool, wet and windy aside from a brief warm spell in the 4th week. So again the sunshine and the cool didn't come at the same time - it would be interesting to note if either July or August have ever featured a few days that were both sunny and cool (by day).

B87 Mind you May 2013 wasn't so desperately wet and dismal and had dry periods at times. I remember May 1984, an incredibly cool, dull and wet month. There was a cyclonic easterly all month with low pressure over or just south of southern England. The first week or so was alright, then it was just endless rain and gloom. Thankfully JJA were all warm and sunny! May 1994 was very similar to 1984 but evidently not quite as cold. May 1996 was less of a trial as the first half of the month was bright despite being cool. The worst weather was over the weekend of the 18th/19th when the Sat was wet and incredibly cold, then on the Sun there was an unseasonable gale. The rest of the month until the 29th was milder but with dull wet Atlantic conditions dominating, though through sheer good luck 2 out of the 3 Bank Holiday days were decent, and the month ended with 2 sunny days.

B87 Interesting that only one year (2021) has failed to reach the "classic" southern England May maximum of 17C at your location - and then only just. It does seem to be true that cool weather in July and August is never sunny. By contrast, it can be in May (e.g. part of May 1996 was distinctly sunny despite being cool) and can in the second half of September. I can't remember a single instance of a cool and really sunny spell in July or August. August 2014 was relatively bright in the cool spell, but I wouldn't call it sunny. The northerlies required for a cool sunny combination invariably lead to extensive Sc buildup during the day. June cool sunny weather is also rare but has happened, the first full week of June 2005 was sunny but failed to reach 20C, it was a distinctly unusual spell, quite a biting northerly wind but also sunny, more like spring than summer in feel.

WYorksWeather Depends partly on the time of year, too. For example 20C would feel: March - hot April - very warm May - warm June - neutral July and August - cool September - neutral, becoming warm October very warm

richie3846 Interesting, yes. In fact there are a small number of blossoms which are coming out around the normal time, a few local cherry trees are always a little later and the apple blossoms seem not too far ahead of average. It indeed seems anything which avoided coming out in the silly mild earlier in the month and in March has been held back further by the current cold (and this week, dull) spell.

It was about 2 weeks ago now that I detected daylight at 9pm for the first time. This was followed by the first sighting of the sun beyond 8pm a few days later (yes, we did have a number of sunny evenings last week). When this happens it really feels like you're going into the lightest time of the year. Shame it's so dull though. On the other hand the mornings are now too light, again. Got up at 7am this morning, thinking it was later as it seemed to have already been light for ages. Whereas I like light evenings, I find that overly-early dawns (i.e. sunrise before 6am) disrupt sleep. Maybe there's a case for double-DST from the last Sunday in April until the last Saturday in August. Only problem would be a sudden plunge into darker evenings in early September, which would make early September always feel unambiguously like autumn even if the weather was fine.

Difficult to call right now with the way the models are, will probably add mine at the last minute.

baddie True, I think it's helped somewhat: though as I said above, the cold spell came about 2 weeks too late!

One thing about the current cold spell is it came about 2 weeks too late. By mid month most of the spring blossom was already past its best, due to the extremely mild weather of the first half of spring. If the cold weather had come in two weeks earlier, and it had then turned warmer (and dry!) in the second half of April, the blossom might have been delayed coming out and then we'd have been able to enjoy it in the 2nd half of April. As it is, never mind the weather, this is definitely the least pleasing spring from a nature POV for many years. Persistent mildness made the blossoming very transient and it already feels like spring flowering is in decline, as I feared might happen back in March. Much better would have been for Feb and March to be cold, April about average, and for the warmth to arrive now rather than in winter....

baddie I'd say 2012 was worse but 2018 about the same. 2018, like this year, had about one week of decent weather (16th-21st in 2018, 15th-21st this year) with a few scattered decent days elsewhere. Strangely, the "good" week was Week 3 in both cases. Obviously the 2018 version was much warmer but both provided some much needed sunshine in an otherwise gloomy month. What Spring 2024 has completely lacked so far is a proper anticyclonic spell. From memory, the last such spring completely devoid of any meaningful settled spell was 1994. Will May provide one, I wonder?

B87 Ah OK. To be honest though perhaps we need to use the anomaly of 1954 with respect to one of the 30-year periods containing it, which would be around -1 assuming 61-90 is similar to 51-80. So arguably, an anti Jan 1954 should really have a +1 anomaly with respect to whatever time period you want to set it in.

B87 was the Jan average max for any 30-year period including 1954 as high as 8.4 though? 8.4 sounds like a climate-change-influenced 1991-2020 value, rather than the typical value for the second half of the 20th century.

B87 Was Jan 1954 extremely cold? An average max of 10.9 suggests an exceedingly mild month (around +4 above normal by max) but didn't think Jan 1954 had a -4 anomaly for maxima. I remember going through the 50s winters some time ago and don't remember Jan 1954 being especially cold.

danm Indeed. There wasn't too much low stratus cloud or mist IIRC (it wasn't Tm, but rPm) but, as is typical for many or even most summers in the past 10 years there was a constant onshore (hence cool) breeze and extensive areas of "dishwater" low-based cumulus. I don't remember any heavy rain events but I think there were frequent light showers and occasional light to moderate frontal rainfall in this period. Main thing I remember was the cool humid air and nagging breeze. Previous unsettled summers (before the past 10 years) seemed to have more in the way of straight W-ly or NW-ly winds, so no onshore wind here hence it wasn't so disproportionately cool and damp here compared to places further east. There definitely seems to have been an exaggerated anomalous SW-ly in recent summers meaning this area is getting disproportionately poorer summers than London and East Anglia for example. Contrast that to something like August 1987 which was OK in this part of the world, with frequent NW-lies.

B87 I would probably rate 2016 better than 2019 overall, despite the truly and utterly dire June. July 2016 was very dry (though cloudy) and August 2016 was probably the best August from 2006 to 2021 inclusive. danm Interesting August was so warm for you though this has come up before; I very clearly the cool, damp and unsettled Atlantic air arriving during the late afternoon on the 4th (following a reasonable first 3 days). Incredible that most of the following week was around 25 for you. In coastal South Hampshire, around 19-20C was the norm from the 5th-18th, IIRC. Certainly it seemed to be constant Atlantic air and a nagging onshore breeze.

I guess it's time for an update on the anti-2024. I think I did both Jan and Feb, so to continue with March: The month started anticyclonic and dry with variable cloud and temps close to normal. A rather cold and dull cyclonic N-ly with a long sea track over the North Sea intervened for a few days around the 8th, before a much drier and anticyclonic NE-ly type set in for the following two weeks. As a result it was sunny, dry, cold by day and extremely cold by night. Places exposed to the east wind had occasional wintry showers and one or two disturbances in the flow produced longer periods of snow, though these soon melted in the increasingly strong sunshine. For the weekend of the 23rd/24th the high pressure shifted eastwards allowing a cloudy and rather hazy though still dry SE-ly intervene for a couple of days. Temps climbed to near average. Finally a straight anticyclonic type took over for the final week and it was sunny by day with one or two days seeing temps exceed the normal for the first time in the month. Easter Saturday despite being anticyclonic saw a weak frontal system produce extensive drizzle though Easter Sunday produced very stable and anticyclonic conditions with variable cloud. Overall, cold, dry and sunny. And, while the month is not over yet, the direction of travel is apparent so April: The 1st featured a keen easterly wind as the high of late March moved a little north and it was rather dull and cold but also dry. Easterlies and occasional northerlies took hold for the first 10 days and produced distinctly cold conditions both day and night, with conditions very reminiscent of (real) early April 2013. Exposed parts had some further wintry showers but overall it was very sunny. A notable feature was the polar low feature which moved SSW-wards on Saturday 6th producing a spell of heavy snow for most areas, even in the south. That day was also somewhat dull but the sunshine returned on the 7th which melted the snow cover, in the same manner as the similar April (real) 2008 event. The 11th and 12th saw a low over the continent gain more influence and as a result, while remaining cold, it turned rather showery particularly to the south. From the 15th a change of type occurred with a large Atlantic low drawing up southerlies. It turned very much warmer with temps around 17C or so widely, but the proximity of the low meant a lot of cloud around, and wavering fronts brought up pulses of occasionally heavy rain. There were drier days too, but they were very dull. It was unseasonably humid and damp. The 20th and 21st were particularly poor with the low centred over the country and extensive heavy rain, though the southerlies kept it mild. From the 22nd the low withdrew into the Atlantic and a spell of anticyclonic southerlies produced drier and sunnier conditions, with a few showers to the west. Towards the east temps reached the low 20s for the first time in the year. At the end of the month the southerly flow was cut off and a more general anticyclonic type returned temps to near normal but it remained dry and sunny. Overall, dry, sunny and somewhat below normal though with a distinct contrast between a very cold first half and somewhat warm second half. To this point, all four months of anti-2024 have been dry and below normal, and three have been sunny.

LetItSnow! Interesting on the anti-1974, certainly a lot of extremes though the summer anti-1974 does not sound exceptional for dry, sunny weather - an indication that the real summer 1974, despite being cool, wasn't as bad as all that?