Tom Clarke

A warm front is moving in from the West bringing rain next Friday, shown on both the ECM and GFS.

A downgrading this morning as we see a very shortlived colder blast ended quickly next Friday, there is then a reload but that's deep into 'FI' and events over Greenland could change by then.

Would be most unusual for a northerly flow to sustain for as long as shown on the GFS or the trough to the East to be that far South. Another concern is that the Canadian low could quickly collapse the block.

The uppers could be toned down nearer the time (if this happens at all) and this would be 2 weeks earlier than the 81 spell as well as the fact that seas are now anomalously warm.

Yes a poor start to the day and difficult to say which way the UKMO would go from the day 6.

The Means won't reflect that at this range.

Just have - see above. The CP forecast was for early possible cold shots, this winter is about early goals, we will be lucky to get out of our half later on !

Yes I did watch it - it's gone wrong in the 8-10 day timeframe which is stretching the limit of credibility anyway, just because it gets better after, deep into the unreliable, still means that the position is worse than this time last night.

Very disappointing as others have said, this could be the only shot of a Greenland High all season and it looks like it's going wrong for us.

Yes a big backward step this morning - UKMO looks like it wouldn't even develop a Greenland High. From experience once things have started to go wrong, then there isn't usually a route back.

If Boris has said that, then I would expect the reverse to happen.

There will only be so many bites of the cherry with a set-up like this I think and when the chances are gone, we know how poor the outlook is for cold fans for Jan & Feb.

This isn't what is being suggested by the METO CP forecast or the other forecasts I've read on the internet, which to differing degrees say that it's early cold and a strong vortex for Jan & Feb - hence the very mild possibility being mooted.

Looks like again the overriding theme is high pressure to the South, the mild outlook continues.

Yes mild and pretty benign - nothing to suggest the colder outlook being touted by the Met Office.