Tom Clarke
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Posts posted by Tom Clarke
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A downgrading this morning as we see a very shortlived colder blast ended quickly next Friday, there is then a reload but that's deep into 'FI' and events over Greenland could change by then.
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Would be most unusual for a northerly flow to sustain for as long as shown on the GFS or the trough to the East to be that far South. Another concern is that the Canadian low could quickly collapse the block.
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5 hours ago, SLEETY said:
The uppers were higher in 1981 than what the models are showing for the possible incoming cold-spell,but that didn't stop heavy snow during 1981 with people stuck in cars in snow-drifts over the Downs, several times!
The uppers could be toned down nearer the time (if this happens at all) and this would be 2 weeks earlier than the 81 spell as well as the fact that seas are now anomalously warm.
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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:
Oh lordy this doesn't look good...that shortwave really causing issues...not helped by the LP hanging around to the SW of the UK
Yes a poor start to the day and difficult to say which way the UKMO would go from the day 6.
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2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Couple of charts to show your favourite thinking of the trough phasing with the Azores low.The mean shows this too i presume
Cheers
The Means won't reflect that at this range.
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1 minute ago, TSNWK said:
I thought should I reply to this or not? But want to give benefit of doubt and invite you if I may to objectivly add substance and rational to your post please
Just have - see above. The CP forecast was for early possible cold shots, this winter is about early goals, we will be lucky to get out of our half later on !
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
Did you not just watch the 12z, I mean it wasn’t looking great this morning but all is looking good now - ECM will hopefully confirm that
Yes I did watch it - it's gone wrong in the 8-10 day timeframe which is stretching the limit of credibility anyway, just because it gets better after, deep into the unreliable, still means that the position is worse than this time last night.
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Very disappointing as others have said, this could be the only shot of a Greenland High all season and it looks like it's going wrong for us.
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56 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Tear your hair out type of shortwave drama on the GFS and GEM this morning- I'm off to bed!
Yes a big backward step this morning - UKMO looks like it wouldn't even develop a Greenland High. From experience once things have started to go wrong, then there isn't usually a route back.
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53 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Never mind the models Boris Johnson has made a prediction for our weather!! I'm quite excited ...
"Johnson insists the government is "sticking with Plan A" - but warns some parts of Europe are seeing case numbers "ticking up very sharply".
"We've just got to recognise that there is always a risk that a blizzard could come from the east again, as the months get colder," he says."
If Boris has said that, then I would expect the reverse to happen.
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There will only be so many bites of the cherry with a set-up like this I think and when the chances are gone, we know how poor the outlook is for cold fans for Jan & Feb.
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:
Hi Jules - I really enjoy your posts and your enthusiasm. Anything I say in reply to your posts just represents a different point of view!
I think the ScEuro high debate still rages - very much up in the air. A Euro High that is not far enough north to be a Scandy High is obviously very bad news short term of winter in western and central Europe, but the evidence that it provides the context for wave breaking in the atlantic to drive a future disruption of the vortex and cold pulled down from the NE is certainly there. March 2018 was one such moment. I notice Judah Cohen writing in his latest winter musings that he has stopped searching for Greenland Highs because they do not produce the right pressure on the vortex to create any significant response in the stratosphere, and instead he now watches carefully for a Ural High (which is really a ScEuro block by a different name....) And last year we got a decent response to the ScEuro High that was semi permanent through much of late autumn but then were a bit unlucky in terms of the tropospheric response to what happened. Just a poor dice roll.
I will have to admit that seeing a ScEuro High as a positive can often be seen as a "jam tomorrow" approach to winter hunting - but we have to hope we can find the jam somewhere....and if we don't have a major high latitude block in place at time X then looking ahead and seeing if synoptic time X may possibly lead to a high latitude block at time Y then that is all we can do. I don't see the point gnashing teeth at short term mildness. The only thing to do if proper winter is what you are hoping for is look with an optimistic eye to the horizon.
There's been a few posts again about the MJO recently - a theme that gets discussed every year. People seem to get very gloomy when it stalls into low amplitude or doesn't progress with sufficient strength into the Western Pacific. Years of observation suggests that the MJO is an extremely difficult driver to pin down, and rarely easy to forecast. For my part I think Nina is becoming more basin wide, I think the current MJO progression will help reinforce the early season Nina mid atlantic ridge, and we will see a trough over Europe in early December that will pull some cold air over the continent. Not a 2010 by any means, but something to give some winter cheer. But I do think the next MJO progression will be stronger, and that the vortex will be under pressure by early January. The heart of winter for me will be late January and for those who think that a Nina year like 2021/22 needs to bring cold in December or the whole season will bust - it might be best to take a deep breath and be patient. It's Nov 12 and we have 4 months of cold potential ahead.....and 4 months is a very long time!
This isn't what is being suggested by the METO CP forecast or the other forecasts I've read on the internet, which to differing degrees say that it's early cold and a strong vortex for Jan & Feb - hence the very mild possibility being mooted.
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Looks like again the overriding theme is high pressure to the South, the mild outlook continues.
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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Nothing too exciting on today's output. High pressure developing through Sunday until the middle of next week. Low pressure then skirting close to the W/NW giving these areas a good soaking. Central and Eastern areas continuing very dry. We've had 2mm of rain here in November, and may still be under 10mm by the time we get to the last 10 days of the month. The extremes continue, and autumn carries on being devoid of our typical wind and rain.Yes mild and pretty benign - nothing to suggest the colder outlook being touted by the Met Office.
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6 hours ago, CreweCold said:
The point I was making earlier. Nothing becomes entrenched in November. It's one of those months, like May, that do not set the tone for the coming season. May 2018- set the tone for June and 2/3 of July that summer but even that ran out of puff by August. Just as November 2010 set the tone for December but again, ran out of puff by January.
Very rare to see a pattern entrench to last the full length of the following season.
I think Nov 2015 was pretty mild and so were the following months. The worry for winter weather fans is that the indications were for the early part of the winter to have the best potential, with Jan/Feb potentially exceptionally mild. The possibility is there that if the remainder of Nov is mild which now looks very likely and Dec follows on, we will see records broken.
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3 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
Interesting and from my limited understanding is similar to what the CP forecast is, though probably the Met are not seeing the possibility of the Strato warming hence the very mild possibilities for Jan & Feb.
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8 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:
Yeah Crewe & S Cheshire in general is probably one of the least snowiest inland areas of Northern England tbh! Especially considering how snowy places like Stoke & Macclesfield only just down the road can be. Dec 2010 was bitterly cold - I remember one day with freezing fog & a hoar frost not getting any higher than -4c! It combined with the shortest days was stunning to experience vs the usual slushy cold spells you often get in the UK.
Yes though funnily enough my father grew up in Macc, and he remembers virtually no snow during the famous 63 winter.
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4 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:
Yeah S Cheshire got a few inches of snow late Nov/ early Dec but nothing like areas further North & East. The main event of Dec 2010 was the bitter cold icicles & hoar frost followed by a brief mid month warm up then the big snow event of 17th - 18th Dec. S Cheshire got around 15cm from that event snow that stuck around till after the cold Xmas 2010- locally there was more snow from that event than the often talked about NW ‘Snowmageddon’ 5th Jan 2010 event. Merseyside & the Wirral were absolutely buried the night of the 17th Dec 2010.
Yes it was certainly cold, though I would say Crewe is the most snowless place I've lived.
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3 hours ago, severe snowstorm said:
Yes, usually a transitional month into winter for low altitudes. However, it is possible for proper winter weather to arrive in this month, as shown in 2010 when there was widespread snow in parts of the UK. We had 8 inches of snow East of Manchester towards the end of that November/early December.
I was living near Crewe in 2010 and certainly saw nothing like that.
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7 hours ago, Catacol said:
Broadly speaking you are right. But aside from the freakish Dec 2010 when was the last time the U.K. tapped into substantive cold without an SSW? Extremely hard to get a high latitude block in a winter where the vortex takes control. So given it is only November anything that can set the vortex up for a fall is good news for U.K. snow chances over the season to come.
This is interesting, so when we used to have much colder winter spells - 70s,80s, were they result of these SSWs - which I understand to be fairly rare ?
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6 hours ago, Met4Cast said:
The contingency forecast covers November.. it's not a "winter forecast" but a three month forecast.
Fair enough, we as planners have been privy to the Dec-Jan-Feb outlook and that is what I was referring to.
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3 hours ago, Met4Cast said:
That's because it's literally all they forecast, year in year out, mild mild mild.
Funnily enough the two factors they quote as being the key ones (-QBO, La Nina) actually support a colder first half to winter, so to only give 10% is utterly bizarre, but unsurprising from the Met Office.
Giving a 10% chance of a colder than average November when all data points suggest below average is most likely is also bizarre, I can only assume the contingency forecast was based upon the Oct seasonal update.
DTN/Meteogroup interestingly are suggesting a below average winter is more likely vs mild, not sure I agree with that 100% either, but the Met Office forecast is already looking wrong and at odds with their 30 dayer forecasts.
The 30 dayer only covers up until late November - which is not winter. Given their record, I would back the forecast they have provided as it is apparently supported by other organisations - notably the Iberian model which is highly respected and (apparently) proved to be right a few years ago when others were going for a wet Iberian winter.
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
Every year, around this time, if the Met Office aren't shouting about a cold winter, then they are bashed.
A few years ago, they were going for early cold, everybody gets excited, nobody was complaining about them then, only after it didn't happen. But the point remains, the bashing starts early if the world 'Mild' is mentioned.
Cracks me up every year!
Yes, and I just think that for them to commit , in the way they have for the more detailed analysis, for the very mild potential later on, then it is likely to be significant - at least in terms of confidence of pattern if nothing else.
Last winter Stratospheric developments were mentioned as a possible curveball (what I understand from reading the forum you call SSWs) but this time it was not mooted.
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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
They are just one organisation.
Yes but they are very highly respected and what we were presented with is also supported by European agencies - perhaps quite a critical drought situation for SW Europe come the end of the winter.
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Model output discussion - closing in on Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A warm front is moving in from the West bringing rain next Friday, shown on both the ECM and GFS.