Tom Clarke

It doesn't but for them to have made the 'very mild' call indicates, I would think, high confidence in a certain pressure pattern.

As mentioned in the other thread, we as planners have had a more in depth breakdown - it's the first time since the current modelling has been used that the very mild phrase has been used - specifically to the Jan/Feb months with any colder possibilities earlier in the winter which may mean that over the period 'mild' is more likely than 'very mild' when it is assessed overall. With the other output they are using from Europe - and overall AGW - then the potential is there perhaps for some exceptional temperatures for the time of year in the New Year.

Not sure about the very mild being frequent in the planners updates - but it is this time. From my limited understanding of the charts there must be a strong signal for the Euro high pressure and persistent SW winds.

So as others have alluded to the indication is for a very mild winter. The percentile chance of the winter being 'very mild' is the highest that the model data (that they are now using) has ever shown. Not sure how long this has been used for as I've only been involved in these briefings for 3 years. Any colder weather is expected early in the season and not to be long lasting. Obviously this is seen as welcome news for all concerned (though not for winter weather fans!) The likelihood is also for wetter than average conditions, especially in the North & West, with flood risks for 'normal' associated areas, though rainfall could be average for South East England. Further afield , the expectation is for an exceptionally dry winter over Iberia & France which would lead to drought conditions going forward in these areas.

We've also got a briefing on Wednesday so will be interesting to see what is said - last year the guidance was broadly accurate as to how things played out.

Cracking photo, looks picturesque !

Thanks Jon, yes water companied would have earlier records.