The Tall Weatherman

Eagle eye referred to the Cape over northern France which causes the storms which will become elevated. Everyone remember Cape is not important for the storms crossing the channel.

Love your confidence! At the moment Cape has just past 1000 in northern France and Storms have just exploded near Rennes. Near where I am in central Britain the clouds and the cloud should clear in by this evening and in some places with the next 1 hour.

This system was meant to move of east but it’s moving up north and slowly. Luckily it won’t hinder storm development as 1000 Cape was just clocked in northern France with nearly 30 degrees, the cap is eroding quickly and so I think the storm development will be quicker.

Met office issued Yellow Thunderstorm warning for tonight. I was also looking at the UKV run and the ECMWF run which is showing storm activity in central England especially after midnight Also I want update the Massive MCs moving through Eastern England on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning!

I knew it ! Luckily for me convective weather were saying they think elevated storms continue to pop up in central England through the night! Let’s see how that goes down! Just saw this! The UKV is on steroids!

The storms are strengthening slowly but surely ! I think they will be full force at the coast!

I know ! Their just nice to look at!

Thanks for asking! Central Britain looks the target but you know this is in 4 days so don’t put hopes to high! But I have to say I have never seen May models like that before, I would see these models in the USA especially when you look at the Supercell composite and that Cape!

Look at the SVR potential for Wednesday evening! Nearly 2000 cape and curved hodographs and storm types edging towards Supercells !

OH MY MOTHER OF PEARL!! Wednesday looks tasty and Cape past 2000!

Yes, I knew they would increase the risk ! Hopefully it extends into further Britain later but I am just worried the storms will die as soon as they reach the mainland because of the lower shear. *UPDATE* Hopefully Nick is spot on

Just want to say to the people that want storms that these forecasts do change as we all know from past events. Do not plan events based on this, just make sure to check tomorrow and Sunday.

The Latest GFS run isn’t shabby in the case of an MCS, 17 degrees at Midnight and Cape up to 1000! Day temps soaring past 25 In central London.

The BBC, UKV and the ECMWF are going for a big old MCS moving through France and into central Britain. We just have to wait and see! I won’t be confident till the models open up in two days!

I love dreaming about this stuff but this far out it is kind of a guess but one thing I have seen is every single model going for plume situation with temps soaring past 26 degrees and some runs going near 30 degrees. Anyways if this does happen my camera will be ready and my yt channel will be hungry. I just looked at some other runs and there hinting storms as well.

I am actually going to be passing Birmingham at 10:30AM late morning going to the Peak District and I do think the storms early in their life near Birmingham might be electrically active for a time around 11AM to 12AM where the conditions seem more favourable. I do think the most potent storms today will be in central Britain where a line of Thunderstorms develops on the UKV run with possible Hailers in front of it at peak heating.

I am still questioning if the storms will be as potent near Kent. The storms in Kent based on the UKV runs are showing it would probably arrive around 5:30pm to 6pm which is when the Cape falls apart and the Lapse rates are low. I am annoyingly going to the Peak District tomorrow but I hope I can get a nice photo when the storms start to explode West Midlands/ Yorkshire moving east with possible sporadic lightning based on the models. I am excited to see the convective weather forecast tomorrow.

The recent charts are showing some gnarly storms tomorrow and The GFS is giving moderate lapse rates to enhance lightning potential along with Cape reaching 600 or more if temperatures can reach higher than 16 degrees. Sadly I am going on holiday to the Peak District but from what the models say the storms will be heading towards us on the way at 11 o’clock. Anyways the largest threat I would pin down would be dead on central Britain. I would not be surprised if Convective weather issued a High end Slight with Severe tomorrow but let’s just wait and see.

For god sake! Tomorrow I am going on holiday to the Peak District and I can’t change that. I better set my webcam up then!

The GFS ensembles are showing some runs still getting pretty hot but we just have to wait and see.

We just need to wait for a few days for the models to stiffen up in regards of a hot plume but I have to say if this does happen I think we would be seeing a historical Thunderstorm and heat event for mid May.

Increased to MDT but still wondering if it will be more linear.

My jaw is locked open wide right now

Yeah, lots of runs are going for it especially in the last 24 hours. Let’s just wait and see shall we.

Look at the GFS and GEM models with their southerly winds ! Possibly a plume scenario?