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Everything posted by The Tall Weatherman
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
The Tall Weatherman replied to Eagle Eye's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
This storm is still growing strong out there in the North Sea, somebody on the northern Lincolnshire coast may have quite the display. -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
The Tall Weatherman replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
@Iceman2606 I saw the same hailstorm yesterday as well, the rainbow and Mammatus at the end were lovely !- 529 replies
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The SPC forecast seemed to verify well last night. Sadly it is looking like there has been some bad damage in the community of Sulphur OK. A few early reports suggest there has been a fatality and a few brick homes have been completely destroyed.
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@Eagle Eye I really do hope the some morning convection can clear away a bit of the risk but I am dead concerned about the latest HRRR. A completely an untapped environment over much of the Central/western portions of OK and then we suddenly see multiple storms that look very nasty. If storms can get control of this atmosphere it will be most likely a scenario where every single storm is tornadic.
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Moving our heads always from a historic outbreak filled to the brim with photogenic and potentially violent tornadoes, today is also looking rather active and very significant. This event has uptrended in the fact the environment is primed and storms look discrete when they form according to almost every model set available. Huge curvature in the Hodograph along with a 60kt LLJ, also a very moist and an unstable atmosphere should be in place as the first storms fire. The SPC have noted this risk and have upgraded to MDT across much of Central OK including OKC and parts of Texas and Kansas Storm Prediction Center Apr 27, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
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Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks
The Tall Weatherman replied to The Tall Weatherman's topic in Space, Science & nature
Managed to catch the last glimpse of Comet 12P Pons brooks while on holiday despite the sunset light. The next big comet will be Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) if it doesn’t disintegrate. -
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
The Tall Weatherman replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Even in Northamptonshire we could see it. Multiple bright flashes over the horizon of the Nene made it quite special despite the poor frequency of bolts. Hopefully we see more of this in the future ️- 529 replies
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N/E Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma border in my opinion is most favourable right now for tornadoes based on the HRRR. The SPC does not seems to be picking up on the southern Oklahoma area where discrete supercells at the back end interact with a highly sheared environment as seen on the curved hodographs and an influx of Energy as it moves N/E. Definitely a big hailer event with some supercells getting tornado warned and many not. Sig tor parameters are also off the charts.
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@Eagle Eye It seems based on soundings that MU Cape does weaken over the channel although not enough to get rid of all the storm activity. As soon as the channel muck reaches southern England the Arome thinks it will explode into life. <1100 J/kg of Surface based Cape and MU cape across much of Central Southern England should be enough to cause some potentially active storms this evening. Personally I think that any storms in front of the band would be stronger than the main band so we should radar watch for the next few hours.
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Definitely some scope tomorrow evening for some storms in the south ️ The Arome model shows <900J/kg of surface based cape in the Afternoon across the far south and widespread strong radar returns. Diurnal heating and sea breeze convergence should also aid convection across this area as we move into the evening. Models are still some time out so we should wait and see
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Tomorrow in the South-western areas looks to be quite interesting as @Eagle Eye pointed out. Locally could expect <1000 j/kg of Surface based Cape tomorrow in the South west and central areas along with a strongly sheared environment (0-1km SRH) that coincides with a curved hodograph. I would not be surprised that if storms matured in this environment especially in the south-west, we could see properly strong storms even later on into the evening hours tomorrow as seen on the Arome model. A tornado seems unlikely but could still happen if the ingredients line up.
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The next few days could be the first thunderstorm days for some of us. Cape seems minimal in the next few days and seems to peak on Thursday and Friday where we can expect scattered downpours and perhaps a rumble. @WeatherArc Wow what a storm that was ! Don’t remember seeing a clear bolt 100+ miles away before that and hopefully we see something like it this year copy_30899B7C-01CA-4956-9ACC-C13B47C0F61A.mov
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This event later will have a very conditional tornado threat as the SPC highlighted but with soundings like this taken outside the OKC metro it looks like we could potentially have a strong tornado tonight. Right-moving shear munching beasts look likely !
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The Setup tomorrow in Oklahoma and Kansas looks good in terms of the kinematics and subtle details but what this setup lacks is moisture and instability. Storms may struggle to mature with the meagre Cape and dew points(50F) but if any of them manage to pull out of the mud we may have strong tornado producers on our hands. The sounding reveals weak capping and an alarmingly curved hodograph with 0-1 km SRH exceeding 400 m2s-2 ! The SPC have labelled a 5% risk for tornadoes around the Central/western Oklahoma and the southern areas of Kansas.
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Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks
The Tall Weatherman replied to The Tall Weatherman's topic in Space, Science & nature
I managed to take some untracked photos last night featuring 35 shots of Comet 12P/Pons brooks. It seems to be getting brighter every day I see it. -
Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks
The Tall Weatherman replied to The Tall Weatherman's topic in Space, Science & nature
I know my first photo looks feeble compared to the others but I only managed 1 minute and 30 seconds of exposure time. The Andromeda galaxy, the Triangulum and the Comet are all visible throughout the grainy image.