The Tall Weatherman

This will obviously completely change but models so far for Sunday look very promising. These storms will be caused by a warm and moist plume from the near continent bringing up high dewpoints and high Cape values for the time of year (<1500j/kg). Many high-res models have not been very consistent yet but there is a chance of multiple waves of convective activity across England from early Sunday morning till Monday morning. Some models (ECM) suggest one wave of elevated storms coming over the channel on Sunday afternoon but I think we all know how that’s going to end . Anyways good luck and hopefully anybody in the Central south gets something !

Wow

Tonight has been stunning and will share more. This is the Timelapse from the Welsh storm tonight and a bolt is all I have to share till tomorrow. IMG_5765.MOV

That storm from earlier was mental with very strong gusts, there was a lot of tree damage on the roads. Will post a Timelapse on here later. IMG_3719.MOV

Go and Watch AarizWX on twitch ! Insane Shelf cloud and a Wall cloud feature developing.

I managed to grab a Timelapse last night of the lightning 160km away. Sorry for the very poor quality but I was on nearly maximum zoom trying to get faint flashes. Anyways it was extremely active, at one point very faint flashes were happening every second. IMG_3709.MOV FullSizeRender.MOV

That was honestly the best thing I have seen this year. Lightning strikes every few seconds in the distance on the rivers edge and tons of Timelapse’s.

The latest UKV and Arome both favour the Midlands tomorrow for an MCS like event. Would not be surprised if there was the odd large chunk of hail.

That thing has gone mental in the fast few minutes. Strikes every few seconds !!

I have honestly not seen a hi-res model (Arome) perform this badly in a long time. Widespread very active thunderstorms scattered across Northern Island comparing themselves to some of Englands high-end events this year.

I would not say very good. Of course it will change but much of the Cape seems situated way farther west and over the mountains and also a serious amount of CIN is modelled over much of the higher Cape values. So far I think Wednesday (locally), Sunday and Monday have the highest risk.

Don’t mind if I do !

Last night around 8:30 I think we had an earthquake. It was a sudden shake along with a 1 second long deep rumble and apparently Facebook was going mad with reports. Another explanation is that it was a sonic boom as a military jet flew past at the time although the shake resembled of an earthquake.

Ryan’s Live and I also have a bad feeling in my gut that this is going to be worse than Ian.

Latest NHC warning is projecting a Major Hurricane on landfall along with an expected devastating storm surge. A few models are also projecting a Category 4.

I am pretty sure it is attached to an updraft base after close inspection so I am pretty sure it’s just scud.

It’s been an ok day overall as I heard my first rumble since early July and managed to get some nice convection pics and Timelapse’s. I also managed to get a small funnel and had to include the Adorable nut-filled squirrel stalking me while I was taking the photos ! IMG_3640.MOV IMG_3642.MOV

My friend just sent me these immense CG photos from Corfu !

Blitzortung just threw out 10 strikes all at once ! Hopefully might skirt me although these storms seem to be moving into a less favourable environment.

Similar to what the 15z UKV has suggested about significant activity behind the Southern England mess right now.

I am mentally exhausted from the UKV teasing me but it’s showing some active storms popping up behind the main front around midnight. North of Kent and South of the Wash seem most at risk ️

The UKV is really developing a real trend here of storms forming around Southern/central Britain and then moving north rapidly. Although one thing to note is that much of this will be embedded thunderstorms and the S/E flank more active in terms of lightning ️

A substantial amount of Cape this afternoon around Central/Northern England. Would not be surprised to see an active storm or two somewhere near the Vicinity of Leeds stretching down to Lincolnshire. Also some slight hodograph curvature on the WRF 16z sounding later that could indicate something in the lines of Rotation ?

Nothing expected here today but a lot of evident accas here dotted around the sky.

A pretty much quiet July for us so far although some quite considerable heat being pumped out around the 11th August which will hopefully bring our first elevated storms of the year ️. I have also linked some convective photos from today and a sunset photo from tonight because I felt like it.