The Tall Weatherman

A few very favourable soundings that suggest supercells are starting to emerge !

I do know that more SB cape suggests stronger updrafts and lapse rates contribute as well. I have also heard that straight hodographs aid large hail development. Please correct me if I am wrong.

A loaded gun setup at 15z today !The 06z WRF is hinting at significant hail if storms can become discrete quickly.

The new 06z UKV is out and is better than ever with multiple discrete storms scattered across the midlands around 15z-18z.

This is my first Convective risk map so would like some feedback if possible SUNDAY 00z-23z UK- During the early morning thick cloud can be expected locally across the Southern Midlands but will burn away and will allow <2000 j/kg SB CAPE to build locally and slowly move north. Initiation can be expected from 12:30PM- 2PM and the initial storms may be quick to mature and might produce isolated large hail as suggested by the 12z GFS hodographs. By 15z multiple MCS’S could form and would produce prolific lightning and flooding because of the moist atmosphere. As these form and move north some new storms could form behind the system and cause extra flooding locally. By 22z the system is expected to perish with most thunderstorms getting choked although the odd thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as it moves into Scotland. Ireland- Widespread SB CAPE <1100 j/kg will build as the cloud cover fades and multiple discrete thunderstorms will move north as the day goes on. Isolated large hail and prolific rainfall rates are expected here. And also good luck to everyone tomorrow and am excited to see some great forum photos ️

Another great 15z UKV and also some storms down in the South-East on Sunday night for any people scared of missing out.

Wow The 15z UKV is on fire with active storms all Sunday and an import to finish it all off ! Although I do know the UKV can be troublesome with elevated storms.

Just realised ! A very substantial spread of Cape tomorrow afternoon although the cap for the Midlands will be in place but the southern convergence zone might push out a few active thunderstorms tomorrow evening ️

Very distant cloud eruptions near Bedford

A selection of my favourite photos from today one of which shows the zoomed in version of the Funnel cloud that was a part of the storm that hit Market Harborough. I also got a time lapse of the anvil and the back-building of the beast to the east of me. FullSizeRender.MOV FullSizeRender.mov IMG_3358.MOV IMG_3361.MOV IMG_3359.MOV

Bliss

An absolutely mental evening at the moment with hundreds of storm pics and lightning to go through but for now here’s the storm ️

OMG a funnel cloud ! IMG_4846.MOV

Time-Lapsing it ! IMG_4845.MOV

Explosion of Turkey towers to my east

The latest 6z UKV seems to put storms way east outside the high risks and plants them in the midlands ! You never know we could see a real surprise

A Loaded gun looking sky now in Northamptonshire ️

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 11 Jun 2023 - 05:59 UTC Mon 12 Jun 2023 ISSUED 07:25 UTC Sun 11 Jun 2023 ISSUED BY: Dan On Sunday, an upper ridge will stretch from the North Sea and down across western Europe, while a cut-off upper low loiters over the Atlantic to the west of Biscay. Between these two features, a relatively high Theta-E airmass will cover much of the British Isles providing the potential for another day of deep convection and thunderstorms. The exact forecast evolution is very uncertain, with a considerable amount of inter and intra-model variability. As such, broad themes will be discussed but unlike Saturday when there was a clear foci for thunderstorms this will be more challenging for Sunday. At the start of the forecast period, showery outbreaks of rain and embedded elevated convection may be ongoing across parts of Scotland (western areas especially), and perhaps also across parts of the English Channel / southern England, both associated with areas of PVA embedded within the rather weak south/southeasterly flow aloft. In these areas rain should gradually dissipate and/or clear through the morning, and while cloud cover across the British Isles is uncertain a degree of surface heating is anticipated given largely medium/high level cloud present (away from Ireland, western Scotland and SW Britain where fairly extensive low cloud/coastal fog is possible). The presence of a stout EML over central/eastern Britain will require near-surface temperatures to exceed 27-28C to eradicate surface-based CIN, while farther west towards Wales/West Country less capping is likely with lower initiation temperatures (23-24C, for example). The main caveat here is cloud cover and whether surface temperatures can reach/exceed these values, whereas in eastern Britain greater insolation should allow near-surface temperatures to reach/exceed required values. However, even if SBCIN can be eroded in eastern Britain, the strengthening upper high in the vicinity and associated very dry, subsided mid-level profile will probably work against any deep convection. Towards the Midlands, Wales, SW England, forecast profiles are moister with less evidence of subsidence and therefore more conducive to deep convection. Given the rather slack flow, convective initiation will probably rely heavily on both surface boundaries/upslope flow and any subtle features aloft - and this is where large discrepancies are evident in various NWP guidance. A small surface low over SE England on Sunday morning is expected to migrate/expand slowly northwestwards into the Midlands, and this will influence the low-level wind flow while also maximising low-level convergence in its vicinity. Therefore the exact shape/track of this low will be instrumental to areas most likely to see shower/thunderstorm activity. In a broad sense, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may develop over portions of Wales (aided by upslope flow/sea breeze) and across the Midlands/Cen S England during the afternoon hours, persisting into the evening. Modified forecast soundings yield MLCAPE of 1,000-1,500 J/kg CAPE, locally higher, with cloud tops potentially to 40,000ft. However, given weak flow aloft (<10kts at 500hPa) effective shear will be rather weak, leading to rather pulsey/outflow-dominant slow-moving storms with cold pools aiding the development of daughter cells nearby. Nonetheless, the magnitude of CAPE will be sufficient for some fairly active thunderstorms, capable of producing marginally-severe hail in the strongest cells. Of greater concern, however, is the potential for surface water flooding, especially across the Midlands, Wales and West Country/Cen S England where PWAT of 30-40mm, moister profiles (less evaporation) and a tendency for storms to become prolonged/morph into clusters. The well-mixed boundary layer will also be supportive of wind gusts 40-60mph locally near the most intense cells. A SVR has been introduced primarily for the risk of surface water flooding, especially in urban areas, and to a lesser extent for isolated large hail. This whole scenario is also complicated by potential for PVA to arrive from France, partly enhanced by previous day convection, which could result in a much larger area of heavy convective rainfall across parts of S/SW England and south Wales - this aspect is uncertain. Elsewhere, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop over hills in northern England and portions of Scotland on Sunday afternoon and evening, drifting slowly to the north or northeast. Some of these storms could be fairly active lightning-wise, with scope for some marginally-severe hail over northern England and northern Scotland in particular. In Ireland/Northern Ireland, despite increasing instability in response to surface heating, a warm nose in the 600-700hPa layer and rather extensive low cloud (at least initially) may inhibit much in the way of deep convection, hence have refrained from including any higher threat levels at this stage. Depending on how things evolve on Sunday afternoon/evening, some clusters of showers/thunderstorms over Wales/NW England may migrate northwestwards across the Irish Sea on Sunday night towards the Isle of Man/SW Scotland/east coast of Ireland. In addition, there have been hints of mid-level showers drifting into SE England (and perhaps East Anglia) on Sunday night within the residual instability plume - although whether much lightning occurs with this activity is uncertain. Finally, there is scope for an uptick in showers/thunderstorms over eastern Scotland during the early hours of Monday, although limited cross-model agreement casts a lot of uncertainty over this potential.

Some explosive development to my west

The 00z NMM is definitely on steroids

Looking very interesting regarding next weekend as the models seem to have shifted suddenly. If there is a biscay low it would be pushing up a lot of warm and unstable air as seen this week in southern europe ️️

A stunning tornado near Fort Stockton earlier, it also seems to have been strong since 8:00PM and is alone in its volatile atmosphere from now on.

36.2c Cambridge 24th July.

A nice lightning storm on this cam right now in South-Eastern France. https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/france/auvergne-rhone-alpes/saint-martin-dardeche.html

Wow the last 18z and 00z are really going for it with the >2000 j/kg Cape on the 31st of May and the 1st of June. Although it will probably change like all long range models