The Tall Weatherman

An absolutely stunning waterspout on el prat yesterday on the Italian coast !

I can see that Welsh storm from here ! Very infrequent but the strikes are photogenic.

A Timelapse film of the lightning storm last night. Sorry about the quality ! Hopefully some of you that did not see anything last night have a monster this evening or tonight.

Just gone through some footage and saw this scud like cloud in the storm, looks very creepy. So happy with the UKV and happy that some peoples storm drought was broken.

Many models recently on the UKV 9z, 12z, 3z and the recent 15z are showing a large thunderstorm system potentially barrelling through central britian around Sunday night/ Monday morning. Very interesting but room for change.

Looking interesting every day next week, constant high cape days and an influx of afternoon thunderstorms. The UKV is very active on Sunday night/Monday morning and has scattered storms every day. The ECM is quite similar and has a very active day on Monday widely.

I have strong feeling in my gut we are in on a chance of some subtropical activity hitting the the UK this year. Firstly conditions seem primed for explosive development over the subtropical Atlantic as sea temperatures are way above average and little shear is present to wreck the storms. Many models show a cut off low diving down and sending any subtropical development spiralling round like a washing machine across northern France and the UK. No need to be super alarmed but it may well be an interesting year . Also we already have a depression on the move which is projected to turn into a hurricane in the next few days. So let’s watch the Radar !

What everyone’s talking about I just realised is very concerning. The NHC has a medium risk of development along central subtropical Atlantic, based on the ECMWF the depression quickly intensifies into a low end hurricane and barrels towards the Bay of biscay before darting north into south England. This probably won’t happen but It’s a first time I have seen a run like that !

Looking interesting for the weekend and possibly further now. The ECM, NMM, UKV and many other models are supportive of storms. Friday is looking like the possible first day of action with <1000 situating for a time over east anglia, however there is not much model agreement with this day but more on The weekend and the push early into the week, although then it does look like much of the cape will be out at sea. As we all know things can definitely change from this timeframe so we should wait a bit.

The NMM are going for 3 consecutive days straight of storm mayhem from Friday-Monday, it is hard to pin it down yet obviously but considering low pressure is not to far away and Cape is a plenty it could play out. The ECMWF is showing something interesting as well on Saturday and Sunday.

Wow that Peterborough storm really is active! Seeing very high up flashes every few seconds. My camera is dead though sadly because of a corrupted sd card. Got my time lapse camera on it though.

Updated track-

Based on the latest radar This is the approximate path. Looking like I am actually in for a chance now to see something ! ️

The latest models are definitely signalling a slight westward trend in the last few hours, don’t forget we have had 2 remarkable MCS’s this year that took a more westward path than originally expected. Ingredients are definitely there early tomorrow morning for a large MCS to sweep across Southern and eastern England, the UKV does push it more central . Very high rainfall totals may hit the areas affected by the storms which may cause flash flooding. It has to be said I am a tad bit concerned that yellow warning will jinx the storms though .

Looking interesting Wednesday night into Thursday, the forecast is not fully banged on as convective forecasting >12 hours away can be tricky especially for elevated storms. The main models suggesting are the NMM, arome and the Arpege showing a long line of storms breaking out across the east of britian smashing head first along kent, Lapse rates and Cape should encourage convective growth. The UKV 6z has recently downgraded its potential to a long band of reasonably light rain. Anyways the south east is as dry as the gobi and it needs serious rain 🏜.

The first interesting system of the year is developing. From what I have seen the environment seems conducive for development with the storm not being a sheared mess. Hurricane hunters are out for it as well !

That storm is on my home for god sake and I left hours before because I am going to wales. That bugger mother nature !

Dan’s Convective weather forecast is looking quite optimistic today. Sadly I have to go to north wales today so I will probably miss out.

Tuesday morning on the UKV is looking more active than before ! A thunderstorm system moves through West/central England in the morning hours and as the day goes on the risk looks like it will stretch more west than before shown by the NMM and the UKV. We are approaching the 24 hour mark so the models are starting to stiffen up. Anyways good luck storm lovers !🌩

The 3z UKV runs are getting very intresting. Monday showing a new addition of some thunderstorms breaking out over central eastern Britain as the evening closes. Tuesday is looking like it was before but is showing storms break out later over western parts.

Starting to get real intriguing for Monday and Tuesday based on the new 12z runs. Definitely room for change but the situation is definitely getting closer. Monday looking like a big day with (<2000) cape building across central and northern Wales moving east as the day goes on, the storms might become organised for a time as the afternoon ends around parts of central/western England . The storms should rumble away by Tuesday morning and quickly during the morning hours (<2000) cape should interact with the very warm and humid, perhaps sheared environment. Central south England and eastern England should see the strongest storms of day but widely across England scattered storm can be expected.

Guess what ! I’m going on holiday, I wonder when ? TUESDAY (the big day)

@Tempest Depends if the cap brakes on Monday, the storms may struggle to lift off where you are.

Going to be very interesting on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF and NMM are showing some afternoon thunderstorms breaking out on Monday widely across the UK with Cape value’s perhaps surpassing <1000, along with that it looks like cap won’t struggle. Tuesday on the NMM is looking very interesting across the East and south England with the GFS showing <1200 cape across some southern areas and NMM showing 1500 cape in some eastern areas. Something to watch.