The Tall Weatherman

A day of tilted showers with suspicious lowerings (caught a small funnel). The NMM looks poor in the near horizon with limited instability and no sign of any southerly plumes. FullSizeRender.MOV

@Metwatch the sped up video version is showing rotation within the wall cloud with a clear RFB. We seem to be doing quite well at the moment with lower Cape days !

Thanks @Coops241180 for pointing it out. A seemingly active thunderstorm has exploded to the East of Manchester moving E/SE into a seemingly zero-cape environment. Very surprising

Some decent pileus and showers around tonight after a week of cloudless greek heat. Tomorrow will be pretty much the same with slightly higher Cape values in East Anglia.

On my way to Gatwick and can see a very nice lightning storm in the distance. Yet again there is no chance to get my Canon out

Latest 12z UKV showing some supercell looking thing in Leicestershire moving into Lincoln. Atmosphere would sure suggest it

I think there is still interest for Hertfordshire especially in usually the most accurate models. I picked out a twitter post which you are in the firing line of !

Metweather has a very interesting point for Southern/Central England tonight. As forecasted a few rotating supercells could occur in an untapped environment.

It will be fun to see how later unfolds but I have done a map on places in the highest risk this Afternoon. My main areas are in a broad area of Lincoln, Nottingham and surrounding areas. I have also extended the risk further southeast as some models (WRF) (Arome) have suggested a few discrete storms near Luton later this afternoon moving into a (hopefully) untapped atmosphere of <2100j/kg SB Cape. Forecast soundings suggest large hail potentially pushing <3cm !

I am so angry it was not higher quality but I will take it anyway.

It’s only a matter of time too when the cap breaks. I sense it’s coming soon with those explosive turkey towers in all directions

This is my 3rd forecast and likely forecast that really struggles due to monster amount of model variation tomorrow afternoon . Saturday 00z- Saturday 23z Convective Forecast: The day will first start off with a band of showers moving in from France that is expected to arrive at around 7z. This convection early on will most likely be heavy rain and a few embedded strikes. The only reason these channel storms will lack significant lightning activity is because of almost nonexistent amounts of MU Cape. The first surface based storms might form in front of this line and produce sporadic lightning around 10z although there is little agreement. If there are still elevated storms into the morning hours moving north into the midlands the storm threat will most likely be significantly reduced like the 18th of June. By early afternoon if the cloud clears a very volatile atmosphere may unfold in several parts of the East Midlands and North Midlands. 1700j/kg SB cape and strong 0-6km Shear in excess of 40kts locally will lead to isolated supercells if clouds can erode the cap in the Central midlands late afternoon. The first surface based storms are expected to explode over the Southwest Midlands and move North or N/E as there is heavy model disagreement on storm movements (UKV v AROME). The main risk areas are heavily disputed but I have gone for Leicestershire, Manchester and Lincoln for the highest risk areas. Storms may contain unusually large hail for UK standards as highlighted by the Automated severe weather guidance tool (ESSL), high cape and relatively straight hodographs might increase hail size to <3cm. Prolific lightning and flooding can also be expected by these storms and the odd funnel or tornado cannot be ruled out where convergence is maximised. These will likely fizzle out by the time they reach Northern England and surrounding areas around 22z. Ireland- Saturday 00z-23z convective forecast: A few thunderstorms may arrive late Saturday night although am unsure fully about timings. Am very excited to see how tomorrow plays out because of serious model uncertainty. Anyways good luck to anyone Chasing ️

Very meagre but would not be surprised if it became electric at some point.

The ESSL came out with a corker of a risk for Saturday afternoon 3 days before the event. High risk of thunderstorms with Large hail seem likely https://www.stormforecast.eu

Have highlighted multiple areas interest on the latest 15z UKV. 16z Saturday: A line of storms in the northern areas of England and a few discrete storms further south into the Midlands. Monday 12z: Scattered Showers all around England although uncertainty if they will be thundery.Monday 21z: An MCS looking thing in the SW/Southern England. Tuesday 15z: Scattered Thunderstorms all across Britian. I will post a Saturday Forecast tomorrow evening and it is looking very interesting in regard to supercells if storms can stay surface based unlike the 25th of June and if the clouds can scamper away quickly enough.

Showers are indeed possible but SB Cape ( Convective available potential energy) is almost nonexistent to fuel storms.

A Few interesting radar animations from today including the Bridlington splitting supercell. FullSizeRender.MOV FullSizeRender.mov FullSizeRender.mov

First Timelapse of the day ongoing pointing towards Leicester ️

I swear the UKV just nosedived 100 miles south

Have updated my risk map slightly to concern a new high risk and and a more western SVR to highlight the risk of multiple discrete storms that could possibly produce <4cm Hail in the strongest of cells. I have also overlayed multiple different models and somewhere just to the East of Scarborough seems most likely to see storms today ️

My 1st Convective forecast did relatively well and am back at it again. Would love some notes of advice which would happily be taken . Sunday 25th of June 00z-23z Convective Forecast During the morning hours widespread sunshine is expected with Temperatures locally reaching 30c in some areas around Central/Northern England. This should yield <1500 j/k SB Cape locally along with unseasonably strong 0-6km shear around 40 knots which is conducive for supercells if storms explode along the cold front. Although there is a huge amount of model discrepancy storms should be initiating around 13-14z if the cold front moves as planned (which probably won’t happen). Storms will become relatively widespread around 15z and multiple discrete storms may fire to the north of Leeds which would contain the risk of Isolated large hail <4cm as aided by a straight hodograph and cold upper airs. Storms also have the risk of tornadoes (spin-ups) as they move east into a favourable unstable atmosphere with strong 0-6km shear and ramped up significant tornado parameters. As the afternoon goes by a few rogue storms may form further south towards Central England/ East Midlands around 15z if the cold front behaves and if temperatures of 28c can stay until late afternoon which the temperature needed for convection. Also further north near the Orkney islands a line of active storms may develop during the afternoon as suggested by the Arome and the 15z UKV. Northern Ireland Multiple thunderstorms may develop in and around Northern Ireland during the afternoon and any storms that mature might cause a spin-up tornado especially where convergence is maximised. I am still actively learning about severe weather so don’t take this to seriously Am excited to see everyone on the forum tomorrow and good luck to anyone chasing ️

Same here, and also it’s the first storm of the year that’s throwing out photogenic lightning.

Hearing faint rumbles every few seconds. No bolts yet though

Yeah definitely a nice Ic bolt in there ️

What a day ! Got multiple bolts on cam earlier and got great structure photos but for now this what I see. IMG_4978.MOV