The Tall Weatherman

A surprise large Tornado on the ground now in Kentucky. Ryan’s stream below

Comet 12P/Pons brooks is looking better everyday I see the photos. If we somehow manage a clear night here the Comet is easily visible through small binoculars and under properly dark skies it looks to be visible only just through the Naked eye. Also the Comet seems like a great photo opportunity paired up with Andromeda and the Triangulum.

I was a bit annoyed the aurora wasn’t a bit stronger so I had to edit the aurora pillars a lot to bring out the colour. Taken around 8PM.

We have liftoff ! Hopefully this holds a few more hours

The first day of the year with proper showers has finally arrived ! A few heavy hail showers were present today including a nice storm as I watched the jets take off from Lakenheath.

I was actually a bit surprised to learn that no one has talked 12P/Pons-brooks yet. From what I’ve seen it looks like it will approach Magnitude 4.5 for us in the UK during the late-evening in mid March, also if anyone whips out there star tracker it can be seen now. It’s location is just below the Andromeda Galaxy and the Comet will not be visible for us in the UK after mid-April. To my current knowledge it looks to be of a similar magnitude to Comet E3 (ZTF) that we had last year but potentially brighter as E3 (ZTF) was magnitude 5. Here are the current photos of it:

The House is shaking here in Northants, the winds are sustained and very fast. This is definitely worse than Isha.

An absolute beast to the North of York right now. Strong winds and frequent lightning in it.

Latest 12z GFS is the worst-case scenario for us in the Midlands. Multiple branches down already by the looks of it.

Looks like Torro is correct thus far with the tornado risk. @Metwatch I just scrolled through TikTok again and a plague of new channels has popped up in fyp, and of course people mindlessly believe it.

I am fed up with this account on TikTok. Dark predictions has no clue about weather and does not even live in the UK. Despite this he racks in millions of viewers who can’t be bothered to look at the actual forecast.

The models have really been wobbling today. Some models only give 60 MPH to warning areas up in Scotland whilst some bring an 100 MPH sting jet to the Scottish coastline. The models will probably gain strong accuracy tomorrow morning and now it’s just a waiting game. What is really concerning is how long this system is going to last, strong gusts for 8 hours must put excessive strain on trees and would likely lead to multiple road closures across England, Scotland and Wales. Here are some models below. Make sure to take the Arpege with a grain of salt.

Infact it is pretty much most of the central part of Britain and it’s even worse to my west. I’m really hoping the models don’t shift west because that would be very bad for the low lying villages. Here is a photo of the Meadows near me from earlier, it’s practically a sea.

I’m very worried about this. The potential for 12hr+ of heavy rainfall in the Midlands and especially where i live (Northants) as many low lying areas are already flooded. Some villages are even putting sandbags up as the flood levels rise and also the ground cannot hold anymore water making the accumulation just run off for floods.

The Latest 06z Arpege is looking very bad in terms of wind. Rush hour will be an absolute nightmare.

Most models seem to be picking it up now, the Arome, Arpege, UKV, ECM, GFS and many more have it. The wind gust strength will still be very strong still across the area with winds likely inland breaking 60/65mph. The area it affects seems to have turned way further south which would be touching London potentially during rush hour. Although there are models like the Arome and Arpege that move it a bit further north. It’s all about radar watching soon.

Don’t know if anyone on here has seen this yet but the risk of Very strong winds and POTENTIAL tornado activity is well possible tomorrow. Many models suggest a small low pressure system bringing localised winds in excess of 70mph across the Central Midlands around 15z. Lightning wizard highlights localised Convective gusts around 80mph and shows strong SRH near the mesolow as it crosses the country. Curved Hodographs are also evident when looking at the Arome model. One thing I also noticed is the slight similarity to October 31st 2021 as the UKV chart looks quite similar. This Mesolow produced multiple tornadoes and strong winds across a localised central swath of England.

Torro Mentioned this - "However, as the aforementioned upper trough approaches, falling heights aloft will encourage the lower level flow to back into the south, causing the frontal system to stall, ahead of a shallow wave. The front will also tend to become less active for a time.” On radar it is completely stalled and won’t really strengthen till 9/10 PM but in the meantime flooding could really be likely where it stalls. The stuff currently in the channel and France is the stuff that is of interest right now.

Tonight is looking seriously interesting especially in the way of strong Winds and potential tornadoes. Torro has brought up on the fact of Tornadoes for much of the Midlands/ East Anglia and a corridor around the Central South. Lightning Wizard shows strong convective gusts in excess of 70mph across the midlands for a short amount of time and strong Low level shear and SRH is also present as the front moves through bringing the risk of tornadoes for a time. Torro said this- "Very strong low-level flow /850 hPa flow of 55-65 knots/ is expected to develop ahead of the front across parts of Cent S England, SE England, the Midlands, and E Anglia, creating large low-level shear and curved hodographs. Instability will be rather meagre along the frontal zone, but may be enhanced by the two upper troughs. Low-level flow into the front will likely encourage a narrow line of intense rain, and the shear along the front may allow mesocyclones to develop. These will assist in bringing strong wind gusts in places, perhaps to 60-70mph. There will also be the risk of isolated tornadoes.” The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

Apparently a Volcano has ripped through Manchester according to the BBC. It was a very substantial volcano apparently FullSizeRender.MOV

BIG time Nacreous clouds right now over Northants !!

I have highlighted some very interesting videos from this event including the full chase and the Sleaford tornado.

A tornado not long ago tore through Leitrim village in Ireland. Information is still coming through about this tornado. FullSizeRender.MOV

The only reason i disagreed is because clearly this a snow streamer. These happen when cold air travels over a warm body of water (the Irish Sea) and convection occurs for long periods of time locally meaning lots of snow. Lightning can also be generated as this is convection over water but this is not supercellular because firstly the conditions are simply to brutal and this shows no traits of a rotating mesocyclone. I’m sorry if I harmed you in anyway from pressing the button.