The Tall Weatherman

Only a light 42cm dusting is expected.

Photo taken ten minutes ago showing a faint aurora sheet. I personally think it will flare up again.

I really do recommend reading the latest track and damage review of the Jersey Tornado by Torro. It’s astonishing to see this tornado destroyed houses, threw oil tanks and cars 30+ meters away, buried sticks deep into walls, carried metal 1.4km only to be wrapped completely around a tree and in one circumstance there was a concrete slab lifted 30 meters. It’s amazing to think this Tornado is the Equivalent of a High end EF2 and Low end EF3 in America. This tornado will sure live on as one of the UK’s strongest this decade. https://www.torro.org.uk/pdf/SI/SI20231101_Jersey_SupplementaryDamageIndicators.pdf

Tomorrow does look seriously interesting . I’m no expert but Lightning wizard shows through the roof values of 0-3km SRH and strong 0-6km shear locally in excess of 50kts which could support tornadic development. This risk is widespread across Parts of East Ireland and into Central and eastern England due to a potential embedded storms and particularly a potential squall line tracking from Wales to Eastern England during the morning hours between 7am-11am. Torro also has seen some Threat for tomorrow which I will put below: TORRO DISCUSSION: A rapidly deepening Atlantic low, named Storm Debi, will move into the RoI and N Ireland overnight. The frontal system will cross the area after midnight and through Monday morning (as well as much of the rest of the UK and RoI). Very high winds associated with the low will affect parts of the RoI, and portions of the UK, catered for by warnings from the national weather services in both jurisdictions. This forecast is concerned with the risk of one or two tornadoes, associated with the passage of the cold front of the system. A surge of dry mid and upper level air will overspread the front through the second half of tonight and into Monday morning, associated with a pronounced upper trough. Strong lifting associated with this should cool mid-levels enough to allow convection to develop - perhaps as a strongly forced line over the RoI into SE N Ireland, and then a more broken line into Wales/N England and points east. Strong shear, both deep layer and low level, will be present, enough for a few storms to become organised, perhaps with low-topped supercells. The very high low-level shear may allow for the development of a few tornadoes. The highest chance would appear to be in a line from SW RoI, through parts of mid/N Wales into the Midlands and eastern England, near the triple point of the system. However, the box is somewhat larger, just to cater for the chance of development elsewhere. Additionally, strong straight-line gusts are possible too, associated with convection (as well as with the gradient flow from the storm, as mention above). Occasional CG lightning is possible too. Finally, a few incidences of hail cannot be ruled out, especially with stronger cells - perhaps close to severe levels in one or two places.

Mission Complete

Gonna give Aurora photography a crack tonight.

We sadly did lose an apple tree to storm Ciaran. I believe it was a 45mph gust that did it.

Some Golf ball size hail reports coming out the Jersey now and serious tornado damage as well although more info when it’s lighter in a few hours.

Storm surge breaching the North Devon harbour right now !

I know people are spreading awareness about their own communities in preparation of Storm Ciarán, although I cannot stress enough the dangers of living on the Channel Islands tomorrow morning. A 949mb beast with the potential to bring gusts of 100mph to Guernsey and Jersey for hours at a time. This is also happening in the night remember and I feel like the tip of northern France and the Channel Islands might experience 1987 type winds. I’m not saying the winds won’t be bad for the south coast but the thing is that 75-85mph gusts don’t cut it compared storms of recent years some of which had winds flopped drastically.

Looks like Torro have hopped on board the potential of quite severe squalls tomorrow. The Arome shows a moving squall in the morning and scattered showers/thunderstorms later on.

I was gonna post on here an hour ago about this storm as it looked very suspicious. A distinct hook and when replayed there was precip being wrapped around it. TORRO have nailed it spot on so far. FullSizeRender.MOV

TORRO Discussion: A frontal system will move NE across the area this afternoon and into this evening/overnight. A couple of upper shortwaves will accompany this. The exact morphology of areas of convection remains somewhat uncertain - however, an area of showery rain, with some lightning noted (especially near the triple point) is noted in the western English Channel - this area of precip will continue to move NE this afternoon/into tonight. With strong low-level shear, tornadoes cannot be ruled out with some of the stronger cells, with the area around and a little east of the triple point perhaps being more favoured. This corridor looks to be from around about Dorset/Hampshire NE towards the Wash. However, some discrete cells may occur east of this too. With favourable deep-layer shear, supercells cannot be ruled out - any supercell may also bring hail 15-20mm diameter, and squally gusts, as well as a tornado threat. Another area of showery rain/embedded thunderstorms may spread NE this evening into tonight, likely associated with a second upper trough. Surface flow should have veered somewhat, suggesting gusty outflow winds may be the bigger threat - however, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with this, especially in southern counties from Hampshire eastwards.

Surprises happen in the world of weather but a surprise like this is simply insane. It’s amazing to thing some Americans near Mexico went to sleep without this being a hurricane to waking up to a Category 5 monster. Most people have not evacuated and sadly many sources suggest mass loss of life.

In the midst of calm some possible storms are possible on Thursday. Warmer and moister air should arrive from the southern near continent anchorage quite substantial Cape may arrive too with <1000j/kg locally. Despite my break I think based on the UKV we could have widespread storms around the south on Thursday afternoon into night.

Have just been reading about this and is very interesting. It explains that a lot of the worlds super bolts happen in the English Channel in the winter and that many of these lead to TLEs (like sprites and elves. I really do wonder that one day somebody in the England will get a crisp sprite capture. On the relationship between lightning superbolts and TLEs in Northern Europe - ScienceDirect WWW.SCIENCEDIRECT.COM Lightning occurrence at higher latitudes in northwestern Europe is by far less frequent than mainland continental and the Mediterranean during most of…

Last night was very interesting, it was 1:30am and was not expecting anything until a storm near Bedford lit up and moved north. I have put together a Timelapse from my Canon 250D of the active storm and managed to snap a very bright CG around 2:03. The thing is that this bolt almost moved from the ground and up but I did not really have the best of angles in this case so anybody’s suggestions are welcome as I have included a video. I am also extremely tired and almost passed out during maths . Anyways some of these forum photos are nothing short of amazing especially @Southern Storm@ChannelThunder@Stormhog@Storm_Sikher@Eagle Eye. IMG_3776.MOV FullSizeRender.MOV

That tornado is as good as it gets, beats the USA in many ways.

There seems to have been an uptick of activity in the last few minutes near Guernsey. We need hope

Have managed to put together a forecast based on the the Real time data and what is showing on the latest models. Good luck to everyone and anyone scared of missing them anywhere East of the IOW because you can expect new developments in the next 4 hours.

The ESSL going for quite a widespread 50% risk. Obviously it is no time to judge yet and high-res models will start to become useless in the next 24 hours. Anyways good luck to anyone wishing about getting a glimpse of a storm to finish off this poor season.