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Tamsin

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Posts posted by Tamsin

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Can’t help but have a bad feeling that this may well see the real fireworks mature and explode off after the main ingredients have left the country. Like August 2020 in the North sea and August 2012 (forgot the date). For fast moving setups, there’s too little room for us to be guaranteed something. Unlike the USA, France, Germany etc. Theres too much flattening happening, rather than the trough digging deeper just before our shores to maintain a humid Southerly for a much longer period of time to mix with the overlapping cooler air aloft. I hope I’m wrong however. 

    I'm not feeling too hopeful either.  I'm free to drive tomorrow but I don't think that whatever it is will be driveable from London :S

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Anyone else seen Sundays setup? My god that’s looking like a dangerous setup. Best chance of supercells since 2012 or more recently 2018?  I would say so going by the current charts. 

    It's my day off that day and my birthday the day after! Let's hope it's not in the usual spot that is Hull

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Tamsin

    Thunder for breakfast in Bromley but it was the thundery rain kind. Nothing noteworthy apart from the same bright flash that Harry invariably saw. Hopefully there will be more in the southeast later today (?) .  I can't get to that stuff in Kent in time before it ends up in the sea.

     

    The picture is of the system coming in at 4am. Granted I was facing the wrong side

    Could contain:

    • Like 5

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    Read an article earlier about the Canada wildfires that storms with more frequent lightning are (and will be) more likely as the planet warms.

     

    however, I’ve also read that as ALL LAYERS warm there will be less of a dynamic temperature difference within isolated storm systems and this will reduce the potential for the more noteworthy storms you would otherwise expect.

     

    I mean is there any actually support for this theory. I agree it will be hotter, but i don’t think we will end up like Kansas anytime soon

    I've thought about this and I think, if anything, it will just push the storm season into the colder months either side 

    • Like 5

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2023-06-10

    The words "Nodrog" and "nighttime lightning display video" spring to mind here:

    ...evening/night, substantial CAPE will persist given the now mixed layer in the low/mid-levels, and with strengthening 600-850hPa flow through the evening this will advect more rapidly northwestwards across the Irish Sea and perhaps NW England,...

    Colour me excited 🙂

    • Like 6

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

    Got some interesting weather again popping up at 120 hours on the UKV, with the risk of SB showers across the Midlands on Saturday, and a few elevated ones in the south early Saturday. 

    One question I need to ask: what are the key features that allow severe storms to develop - I know DLS (in excess of 30knots) and high levels of Cape (+1000J), but what else impacts development of storms? Thanks in advance for any answers!

    I don't know but I reckon cold air aloft seems to make a difference.  I would look into that storm on 23rd October last year in the southeast.  Daytime temperatures in the mid teens yet still severe gusts and very very frequent lightning.  Can't imagine the CAPE values were very high

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Sparkiee storm said:

    Not much here today except a couple of rumbles from a near by cell as it moved away to the NorthEast at around 3ish, a part of it seemed to have developed over us too as we had a few massive convective drops. The pic below is of that cell.

    Could contain: Cloud, Nature, Outdoors, Sky, Grass, Cumulus, Weather, Field, Grassland, Landscape

    Another beautiful day for cloudscapes though.

    Could contain: Cloud, Nature, Outdoors, Sky, Cumulus, Weather

    Could contain: Cloud, Nature, Outdoors, Sky, Cumulus, Weather, Vegetation, Tree, Landscape, Woodland

    Could contain: Cloud, Nature, Outdoors, Sky, Cumulus, Weather, Vegetation, Tree, Landscape, Scenery

    Could contain: Cloud, Nature, Outdoors, Sky, Cumulus, Weather, Vegetation, Grove, Grass, Landscape

    The thunderstorms in the NE, before and as they were decaying look to have formed into a MCV with a swirl to the system.

    Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Nature, Outdoors, Plant, Vegetation

    Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Person

    I wonder if it was one... those things can create their own weather systems, great spot if it was 

    • Like 1
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