Rain All Night
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Posts posted by Rain All Night
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On 21/05/2024 at 13:45, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 5 Jun (day 15)
There doesn't seem a lot to be gleaned from the ensemble means this morning, apart from possibly the presence of a shallow trough near the UK between heights to both our west and east around the first weekend of June.
0z deterministic runs, on Sun 26 May (day 5)
Deep breath... can the east, or southeast, escape the blipmonster?
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 6) - bank holiday Monday
Still can't call Monday, but none of these charts are bad.
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 5 Jun (day 14)
The mean Icelandic trough looks influential for some time to come.
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 5) - bank holiday Monday
ECM and GFS now look more like UKMO (which has stayed consistent) did 24 hours ago, with low pressure having more of an influence over Britain on this day, though not necessarily a ruinous influence.
0z deterministic runs, on Wed 29 May (day 7)
The south Greenland/Iceland trough looks as though it will continue to influence the setup during half term week, but as each of these three charts show, that doesn't mean the weather has to be bad each day for everyone.
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14 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z ensemble means, out to Tue 4 Jun (day 15)
We've got some good mean heights over all or most of Britain almost throughout these runs, but the Atlantic trough curvature requires one to take a deep breath at times while watching these animations.
12z deterministic runs, on Sat 25 May (day 5) - bank holiday Saturday
I hadn't expected the "Griceland" trough to dig as deep as this on the Saturday - I'm selfishly hoping we can keep the incursion out of England, as currently appears likely...
12z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 7) - bank holiday Monday
It's evidently too early to call the bank holiday Monday - the potential for a great day is absolutely there...
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 5 Jun (day 15)
There doesn't seem a lot to be gleaned from the ensemble means this morning, apart from possibly the presence of a shallow trough near the UK between heights to both our west and east around the first weekend of June.
0z deterministic runs, on Sun 26 May (day 5)
Deep breath... can the east, or southeast, escape the blipmonster?
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 6) - bank holiday Monday
Still can't call Monday, but none of these charts are bad.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-spring-has-sprung/?do=findComment&comment=5072574 -
14 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z ensemble means, out to Tue 4 Jun (day 15)
We've got some good mean heights over all or most of Britain almost throughout these runs, but the Atlantic trough curvature requires one to take a deep breath at times while watching these animations.
12z deterministic runs, on Sat 25 May (day 5) - bank holiday Saturday
I hadn't expected the "Griceland" trough to dig as deep as this on the Saturday - I'm selfishly hoping we can keep the incursion out of England, as currently appears likely...
12z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 7) - bank holiday Monday
It's evidently too early to call the bank holiday Monday - the potential for a great day is absolutely there...
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 5 Jun (day 15)
There doesn't seem a lot to be gleaned from the ensemble means this morning, apart from possibly the presence of a shallow trough near the UK between heights to both our west and east around the first weekend of June.
0z deterministic runs, on Sun 26 May (day 5)
Deep breath... can the east, or southeast, escape the blipmonster?
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 6) - bank holiday Monday
Still can't call Monday, but none of these charts are bad.
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10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Tue 4 Jun (day 15)
The ensemble means are looking better again this morning. The mean surface and upper-level ridges over the UK are not quite "clean", so you would imagine that disturbances are likely to be present.
The ECM and GEFS means both have the British Isles (more so further southeast) under the influence of a broad-scale ridge right through the half term week.
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 7) - bank holiday Monday
This morning's ECM and GFS operational runs have significantly toned down the low heights incursion later on in the bank holiday weekend.
The other models are still making more of it, though.
0z ensemble means, out to Tue 4 Jun (day 15)
We've got some good mean heights over all or most of Britain almost throughout these runs, but the Atlantic trough curvature requires one to take a deep breath at times while watching these animations.
0z deterministic runs, on Sat 25 May (day 7) - bank holiday Saturday
I hadn't expected the "Griceland" trough to dig as deep as this on the Saturday - I'm selfishly hoping we can keep the incursion out of England, as currently appears likely...
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 7) - bank holiday Monday
It's evidently too early to call the bank holiday Monday - the potential for a great day is absolutely there...
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21 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Mon 3 Jun (day 15)
I imagine that the combination of low pressure wrapped in warm air this week will make for a mixed experience of warm sunshine and heavy rain.
Later, after a bank holiday weekend that looks as though it will start out better than it ends, there is suggestion that the Azores high will try to shoot another waft up to us around the Tuesday of half term week.
0z deterministic runs, on Fri 24/Sun 26 May (day 7)
Friday midnight - we seem to be converging on slack, warm low pressure sitting over at least the southern half of Britain, so warm sunny spells and possible showers for those of us down here I presume.
Sunday midnight - either the whole Atlantic trough, or some energy from it, seems likely - though not completely certain - to have reached Britain by Sunday.
0z ensemble means, out to Tue 4 Jun (day 15)
The ensemble means are looking better again this morning. The mean surface and upper-level ridges over the UK are not quite "clean", so you would imagine that disturbances are likely to be present.
The ECM and GEFS means both have the British Isles (more so further southeast) under the influence of a broad-scale ridge right through the half term week.
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 7) - bank holiday Monday
This morning's ECM and GFS operational runs have significantly toned down the low heights incursion later on in the bank holiday weekend.
The other models are still making more of it, though.
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On 18/05/2024 at 14:41, Rain All Night said:
0z/6z ensemble means, out to Sun 2 Jun (day 15)
There will for sure be an attempt at an Azores high extension around Friday and it looks more likely than not that it will make some impression on us, but it's not clear whether it will be feeding its warmth into low pressure. Elevated heights to our east seem assured throughout.
0z/6z deterministic runs, on Sat 25 May (day 7)
These three charts suggest that the Atlantic trough will not prevent the majority of us from seeing fine weather for at least the beginning of the bank holiday weekend.
0z ensemble means, out to Mon 3 Jun (day 15)
I imagine that the combination of low pressure wrapped in warm air this week will make for a mixed experience of warm sunshine and heavy rain.
Later, after a bank holiday weekend that looks as though it will start out better than it ends, there is suggestion that the Azores high will try to shoot another waft up to us around the Tuesday of half term week.
0z deterministic runs, on Fri 24/Sun 26 May (day 7)
Friday midnight - we seem to be converging on slack, warm low pressure sitting over at least the southern half of Britain, so warm sunny spells and possible showers for those of us down here I presume.
Sunday midnight - either the whole Atlantic trough, or some energy from it, seems likely - though not completely certain - to have reached Britain by Sunday.
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15 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z ensemble means, out to Sat 1 Jun (day 15)
These ensemble means say to me that we'd have to be unlucky - though not crazily unlucky - not to have a good bank holiday weekend for most of the country.
Best not pay too much attention to the GEM mean later on...
12z deterministic runs, on Fri 24 May (day 7)
The lesser models are showing the best charts for next Friday... but we need not panic, the small features causing disturbances over the UK on some of these charts are liable to move around or even disappear between runs.
0z/6z ensemble means, out to Sun 2 Jun (day 15)
There will for sure be an attempt at an Azores high extension around Friday and it looks more likely than not that it will make some impression on us, but it's not clear whether it will be feeding its warmth into low pressure. Elevated heights to our east seem assured throughout.
0z/6z deterministic runs, on Sat 25 May (day 7)
These three charts suggest that the Atlantic trough will not prevent the majority of us from seeing fine weather for at least the beginning of the bank holiday weekend.
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12 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Sat 1 Jun (day 15)
ECM's mean suggests its member runs contain some really cracking options for Saturday and Sunday next week. The GEFS mean isn't quite as sure, with suggestions of Atlantic low pressure coming in to cut the party short if indeed it gets going in the first place, but perhaps the 6z will be different.
Before that, the means are now showing what some op runs have shown over the past few days, which is an Atlantic disturbance coming in to sweep up the remnants of the long-lived upper-level low to our south in the middle of next week.
0z deterministic runs, on Fri 24 May (day 7)
Spring-like weather in one fashion or another looks assured for this time next week.
Thank you for the show of support last night
12z ensemble means, out to Sat 1 Jun (day 15)
These ensemble means say to me that we'd have to be unlucky - though not crazily unlucky - not to have a good bank holiday weekend for most of the country.
Best not pay too much attention to the GEM mean later on...
12z deterministic runs, on Fri 24 May (day 7)
The lesser models are showing the best charts for next Friday... but we need not panic, the small features causing disturbances over the UK on some of these charts are liable to move around or even disappear between runs.
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*Stormforce~beka* If you mean this feature I've pointed to below, I think what that means is the thickness values of the air mass are high enough that the presence of that weak low pressure area at the surface is not enough to bring the geopotential height at the 500mb level lower than the "yellow" threshold (560 dam), unless someone more experienced wants to correct me.
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12 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z ensemble means, out to Fri 31 May (day 15)
Looks like an unavoidable cold front for Tuesday/Wednesday, but then a delightful ridge up from the Azores in time for the start of the bank holiday weekend! Longevity very unclear at this stage of course...
12z deterministic runs, on Thu 23 May (day 7)
An Azores high extension, a bit of heights over the North Sea or Scandinavia, or why not both?!
0z ensemble means, out to Sat 1 Jun (day 15)
ECM's mean suggests its member runs contain some really cracking options for Saturday and Sunday next week. The GEFS mean isn't quite as sure, with suggestions of Atlantic low pressure coming in to cut the party short if indeed it gets going in the first place, but perhaps the 6z will be different.
Before that, the means are now showing what some op runs have shown over the past few days, which is an Atlantic disturbance coming in to sweep up the remnants of the long-lived upper-level low to our south in the middle of next week.
0z deterministic runs, on Fri 24 May (day 7)
Spring-like weather in one fashion or another looks assured for this time next week.
Thank you for the show of support last night
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11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:0z ensemble means, out to Fri 31 May (day 15)
Most enticing is the mean ridge shooting up over the UK during the bank holiday weekend, on both the ECM and GEFS!
0z deterministic runs, on Thu 23 May (day 7)
This morning we've gone back to most operational model runs showing the current low to our south being "refuelled" from the Atlantic side next week, with only GEM and ICON showing this having mostly filled and moved away, with a consequent flattening back to a southwesterly pattern.
12z ensemble means, out to Fri 31 May (day 15)
Looks like an unavoidable cold front for Tuesday/Wednesday, but then a delightful ridge up from the Azores in time for the start of the bank holiday weekend! Longevity very unclear at this stage of course...
12z deterministic runs, on Thu 23 May (day 7)
An Azores high extension, a bit of heights over the North Sea or Scandinavia, or why not both?!
Sorry to post like this twice in the same day, but I've not had the best day, and this is cathartic.
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23 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Thu 30 May (day 15)
Bank holiday Saturday is now at day 10
There seems to have been a change in flavour since yesterday, with our upper-level low now appearing to fill in over the weekend, with an Icelandic low then forming early next week and flattening the pattern over the UK somewhat, perhaps returning us to the more "normal" situation of expecting better weather conditions further south.
ECM, and to a lesser extent GEM, later sees a ridge form in the Atlantic during the bank holiday weekend. I'm just waiting for the GEFS 6z to see if that has now picked up on the same signal (answer: not really).
0z deterministic runs, on Wed 22 May (day 7)
The GFS chart shows the upper low living on in some form over Europe by the middle of next week. The other two models show the somewhat flatter pattern as suggested by the ensemble means, UKMO showing this producing a welcome result for the southwest of Britain.
0z ensemble means, out to Fri 31 May (day 15)
Most enticing is the mean ridge shooting up over the UK during the bank holiday weekend, on both the ECM and GEFS!
0z deterministic runs, on Thu 23 May (day 7)
This morning we've gone back to most operational model runs showing the current low to our south being "refuelled" from the Atlantic side next week, with only GEM and ICON showing this having mostly filled and moved away, with a consequent flattening back to a southwesterly pattern.
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On 14/05/2024 at 12:49, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 29 May (day 15)
The weekend looks as though it should improve for most of us as it progresses.
ECM is suggesting a new disturbance or trough diving into us around the middle of next week, GEFS is less keen and even suggests ridging over the UK later on.
0z deterministic runs, on Tue 21 May (day 7)
The upper-level low is still there to our south by Tuesday.
ECM is showing most clearly a disturbance coming in from our WSW, which potentially could merge with that upper low.
0z ensemble means, out to Thu 30 May (day 15)
Bank holiday Saturday is now at day 10
There seems to have been a change in flavour since yesterday, with our upper-level low now appearing to fill in over the weekend, with an Icelandic low then forming early next week and flattening the pattern over the UK somewhat, perhaps returning us to the more "normal" situation of expecting better weather conditions further south.
ECM, and to a lesser extent GEM, later sees a ridge form in the Atlantic during the bank holiday weekend. I'm just waiting for the GEFS 6z to see if that has now picked up on the same signal (answer: not really).
0z deterministic runs, on Wed 22 May (day 7)
The GFS chart shows the upper low living on in some form over Europe by the middle of next week. The other two models show the somewhat flatter pattern as suggested by the ensemble means, UKMO showing this producing a welcome result for the southwest of Britain.
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1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
That's because the former is derived from the latter
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
“The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11”
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Alderc 2.0 We've got some well above average temperatures to look forward to this coming weekend by the looks of things:
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23 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Tue 28 May (day 15)
Interestingly, the models have shifted back towards some of the more positive solutions for the coming weekend and beyond.
The ECM ensemble mean in particular suggests warm air kicked up over the UK by low pressure to our west from next week.
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 20 May (day 7)
Really interesting seeing all these frames this morning, as this wasn't the way I thought the situation was trending. Half the models have a little pocket of heights to the north of Britain by Monday, and the other half have the heights nosing in from the southwest instead.
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 29 May (day 15)
The weekend looks as though it should improve for most of us as it progresses.
ECM is suggesting a new disturbance or trough diving into us around the middle of next week, GEFS is less keen and even suggests ridging over the UK later on.
0z deterministic runs, on Tue 21 May (day 7)
The upper-level low is still there to our south by Tuesday.
ECM is showing most clearly a disturbance coming in from our WSW, which potentially could merge with that upper low.
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Saturday is at day 5 now, and the models are homing in on a forecast that looks very "May" - fairly warm, some sunshine, some showers, better further north?
Come Monday, it seems we might be having some difficulty shaking off that upper-level low, and there might be another disturbance starting to approach us from the west (or even south of west) around that time:
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20 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z/6z ensemble means, out to bank holiday Mon 27 May (day 15)
I'm not sure what to make of next week yet. I get the impression there are a plurality of ensemble members showing troughing to our northwest.
0z/6z deterministic runs, on Sun 19 May (day 7)
Still think next weekend looks like it will be decent for many. Funny how the Icelandic low isn't there on the GFS.
0z ensemble means, out to Tue 28 May (day 15)
Interestingly, the models have shifted back towards some of the more positive solutions for the coming weekend and beyond.
The ECM ensemble mean in particular suggests warm air kicked up over the UK by low pressure to our west from next week.
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 20 May (day 7)
Really interesting seeing all these frames this morning, as this wasn't the way I thought the situation was trending. Half the models have a little pocket of heights to the north of Britain by Monday, and the other half have the heights nosing in from the southwest instead.
4 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:But thunder is more possible from the east..
Genuine question - why is that?
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Next weekend still seems quite uncertain... not too keen on some of the solutions that are appearing... these are all day 6 charts...
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On 11/05/2024 at 12:44, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Sun 26 May (day 15)
The ECM ensemble seems to feature some more pleasant options for next weekend, and early the following week, than the other two. Beyond that, northwest/southeast split synoptics perhaps favoured. at the moment.
0z deterministic runs, on Sat 18 May (day 7)
Next Saturday looks OK, presumably some showers and an unwelcome wind direction for some. At least the worst of the weather will have been during the first half of the working week.
0z/6z ensemble means, out to bank holiday Mon 27 May (day 15)
I'm not sure what to make of next week yet. I get the impression there are a plurality of ensemble members showing troughing to our northwest.
0z/6z deterministic runs, on Sun 19 May (day 7)
Still think next weekend looks like it will be decent for many. Funny how the Icelandic low isn't there on the GFS.
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22 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Sat 25 May (day 15)
ECM is currently the most optimistic for next weekend. Beyond that, both ECM and GFS still offer hope of raised heights with a southwesterly tilt, while the GEM goes off-script and offers a horror show.
0z deterministic runs, on Fri 17 May (day 7)
I hope it's looking closer to UKMO than the other two by this point next week.
0z ensemble means, out to Sun 26 May (day 15)
The ECM ensemble seems to feature some more pleasant options for next weekend, and early the following week, than the other two. Beyond that, northwest/southeast split synoptics perhaps favoured. at the moment.
0z deterministic runs, on Sat 18 May (day 7)
Next Saturday looks OK, presumably some showers and an unwelcome wind direction for some. At least the worst of the weather will have been during the first half of the working week.
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On 09/05/2024 at 11:49, Rain All Night said:
Hopefully everyone is quiet because you're all out enjoying the lovely weather we have now
0z ensemble means, out to Fri 24 May (day 15)
From Saturday 18th onwards, you can see the real potential for warmth to come up from the southwest, and you can also see the danger lurking up near Iceland. It's impossible to say any more than that at this stage, but the foundations for hope are certainly there.
0z deterministic runs, on Thu 16 May (day 7)
Hopefully from Thursday onwards, the slackening surface pressure will create more opportunities for dry and sunny interludes. So it oughtn't be the case that the whole working week needs to be considered ruined.
0z ensemble means, out to Sat 25 May (day 15)
ECM is currently the most optimistic for next weekend. Beyond that, both ECM and GFS still offer hope of raised heights with a southwesterly tilt, while the GEM goes off-script and offers a horror show.
0z deterministic runs, on Fri 17 May (day 7)
I hope it's looking closer to UKMO than the other two by this point next week.
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On 08/05/2024 at 11:41, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Thu 23 May (day 15)
There remains no meaningful signal beyond Friday 17th May, so everything remains on the table for the following weekend.
0z deterministic runs, on Wed 15 May (day 7)
There's no denying it, this is unfortunate. At least we've got this week, including a fabulous-looking Friday and Saturday, and the hope that better days could return again from Saturday 18th May onwards.
Hopefully everyone is quiet because you're all out enjoying the lovely weather we have now
0z ensemble means, out to Fri 24 May (day 15)
From Saturday 18th onwards, you can see the real potential for warmth to come up from the southwest, and you can also see the danger lurking up near Iceland. It's impossible to say any more than that at this stage, but the foundations for hope are certainly there.
0z deterministic runs, on Thu 16 May (day 7)
Hopefully from Thursday onwards, the slackening surface pressure will create more opportunities for dry and sunny interludes. So it oughtn't be the case that the whole working week needs to be considered ruined.
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21 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 22 May (day 15)
It seems the small trough is destined to fill over or just to the south of the UK next week, but the following weekend remains up for grabs.
0z deterministic runs, on Tue 14 May (day 7)
It seems the low is going underneath us to the southwest initially, which might buy some more time under the settled weather conditions for those further northeast?
I did find one dissenter...
0z ensemble means, out to Thu 23 May (day 15)
There remains no meaningful signal beyond Friday 17th May, so everything remains on the table for the following weekend.
0z deterministic runs, on Wed 15 May (day 7)
There's no denying it, this is unfortunate. At least we've got this week, including a fabulous-looking Friday and Saturday, and the hope that better days could return again from Saturday 18th May onwards.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Rain All Night
0z ensemble means, out to Thu 6 Jun (day 14)
Our small trough on Monday looks like it will be followed up by a larger one by late next week, in turn possibly sharpened up by ridging behind it in the Atlantic.
0z deterministic runs, on Mon 27 May (day 4) - bank holiday Monday
The models have converged on this banal-looking pressure setup for bank holiday Monday. Early thoughts from UKV on surface conditions at midday are shown alongside.
0z deterministic runs, on Thu 30 May (day 7)
There's a little stormy feature coming off Newfoundland and heading for the Azores during next week that looks like it will influence the setup one way or another.