Rain All Night
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Posts posted by Rain All Night
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On 31/03/2024 at 14:38, Rain All Night said:
0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 15th (day 15)
How do we get rid of the Atlantic trough?
0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 9th (day 15)
GFS, you utter troll.
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 17th (day 15)
We can be hopeful of a visit from the Azores high during the latter half of next week, but it doesn't seem it would stick around for very long. GEFS isn't interested, which is a concern.
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23 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 6th (day 7)
0z ensemble means, out to Sun 14th (day 15)
0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 15th (day 15)
How do we get rid of the Atlantic trough?
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On 28/03/2024 at 11:54, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 4th (day 7)
0z ensemble means, out to Fri 12th (day 15)
I cannot think of anything interesting to say about these runs
0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 6th (day 7)
0z ensemble means, out to Sun 14th (day 15)
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On 26/03/2024 at 22:43, Rain All Night said:
12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7)
12z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15)
We must have been bad people in a previous life, or perhaps in this one... there is an almost derisive lack of ambiguity here from the models.
0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 4th (day 7)
0z ensemble means, out to Fri 12th (day 15)
I cannot think of anything interesting to say about these runs
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11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7)
We are drowning in a sea of blue.
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15)
It seems that the GEFS was right to never have been on board with the idea of a blocked dry spell for the UK. The Atlantic will undercut the Greenland high to our west rather quickly, and we will then continue as we were.
12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7)
12z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15)
We must have been bad people in a previous life, or perhaps in this one... there is an almost derisive lack of ambiguity here from the models.
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13 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 1st (day 7)
A dry continental flow is not looking like the likely outcome for much of the country.
12z ensemble means, out to Tue 9th (day 15)
The upcoming block seems to have a shelf life of about a week, and it seems that there is potential for it to fail to bring us much in the way of dry weather during its tenure.
0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7)
We are drowning in a sea of blue.
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15)
It seems that the GEFS was right to never have been on board with the idea of a blocked dry spell for the UK. The Atlantic will undercut the Greenland high to our west rather quickly, and we will then continue as we were.
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10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 1st (day 7)
A dry continental flow is not looking like the likely outcome for much of the country.
12z ensemble means, out to Tue 9th (day 15)
The upcoming block seems to have a shelf life of about a week, and it seems that there is potential for it to fail to bring us much in the way of dry weather during its tenure.
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9 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 1st (day 7)
0z ensemble means, out to Tue 9th (day 15)
GEFS is slightly more inclined to follow ECM's lead this morning, though it still offers less strength and longevity to the block. All three models lose the block by the start of the second week of April.
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10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sun 31st (day 7)
0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 8th (day 15)
Everyone sees colder and perhaps drier weather after Easter, but views are starting to differ beyond that.
12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Sun 31st (day 7)
Ahh it's nice to see these later frames showing weather that isn't coming from the west for a change!
12z/18z ensemble means, out to Mon 8th (day 15)
GEFS still seems less willing to buy into the colder scenarios favoured by ECM and GEM.
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11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7)
12z/18z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15)
Very encouraging signals for Atlantic blocking to commence at the beginning of April, with only GEFS refusing to commit.
0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sun 31st (day 7)
0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 8th (day 15)
Everyone sees colder and perhaps drier weather after Easter, but views are starting to differ beyond that.
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9 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7)
The last week of March will be pure synoptic tedium...
0z/6z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15)
...but there are encouraging signs of Atlantic high pressure offering to change the game from the very beginning of April, which is now less than 10 days away.
12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7)
12z/18z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15)
Very encouraging signals for Atlantic blocking to commence at the beginning of April, with only GEFS refusing to commit.
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On 22/03/2024 at 11:12, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 29th (day 7)
Solutions with the low activity further south (though not "interestingly" far south) do continue to appear, this time on the GFS.
0z ensemble means, out to Sat 6th (day 15)
I want to see those higher mean heights coming a little bit closer to day 10 in subsequent runs please.
0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7)
The last week of March will be pure synoptic tedium...
0z/6z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15)
...but there are encouraging signs of Atlantic high pressure offering to change the game from the very beginning of April, which is now less than 10 days away.
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10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7)
The ECM solution remains just that little bit less miserable for us.
12z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15)
The height rises late in these runs are starting to border on interesting.
0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 29th (day 7)
Solutions with the low activity further south (though not "interestingly" far south) do continue to appear, this time on the GFS.
0z ensemble means, out to Sat 6th (day 15)
I want to see those higher mean heights coming a little bit closer to day 10 in subsequent runs please.
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11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7)
ECM still different, though not as drastically so.
0z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15)
We're now looking for a signal for what will happen after Easter, and we're not getting one yet.
12z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7)
The ECM solution remains just that little bit less miserable for us.
12z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15)
The height rises late in these runs are starting to border on interesting.
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9 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7)
ECM still different, though not as drastically so.
0z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15)
We're now looking for a signal for what will happen after Easter, and we're not getting one yet.
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12 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 27th (day 7)
It's almost fun to watch just how much of a monster our trough might turn out to be.
0z ensemble means, out to Thu 4th (day 15)
My hopes that we will see much of an improvement in the latter half of the Easter weekend are fading.
12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Wed 27th (day 7)
I tried so hard to find a friend for the ECM 12z.
12z/18z ensemble means, out to Thu 4th (day 15)
Now it's ECM, not GEFS, putting extra heights on the map.
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10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 26th (day 7)
Let's enjoy the brief but welcome influence from the Azores high for the next couple of days, before the
hits the fan next week.
To further illustrate @Uncertainty's post above, here is the GFS 18z run...
12z ensemble means, out to Wed 3rd (day 15)
0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 27th (day 7)
It's almost fun to watch just how much of a monster our trough might turn out to be.
0z ensemble means, out to Thu 4th (day 15)
My hopes that we will see much of an improvement in the latter half of the Easter weekend are fading.
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10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 26th (day 7)
GFS and ICON are still finding height rises to mix things up a little at the beginning of next week.
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 3rd (day 15)
The one bit of hope to cling to is that the trough signal seems to peak just before the start of the actual Easter weekend. The GEFS is as keen as the GFS on the idea of "wedgyness" after the northerly this weekend, perhaps slowing the trough down a bit.
12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 26th (day 7)
Let's enjoy the brief but welcome influence from the Azores high for the next couple of days, before the
hits the fan next week.
To further illustrate @Uncertainty's post above, here is the GFS 18z run...
12z ensemble means, out to Wed 3rd (day 15)
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ICON 0z vs 12z, lol...
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14 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 25th (day 7)
The "wedgyness" shown by some of the models this afternoon - particularly GFS (which I can see as of writing this is going the same way on its 18z run) - is a curiosity, but judging from the ensemble means seen below, it looks doomed to come to nothing.
12z ensemble means, out to Tue 2nd (day 15)
No change to the prognosis for the last week of March - just look at that trough!
0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 26th (day 7)
GFS and ICON are still finding height rises to mix things up a little at the beginning of next week.
0z ensemble means, out to Wed 3rd (day 15)
The one bit of hope to cling to is that the trough signal seems to peak just before the start of the actual Easter weekend. The GEFS is as keen as the GFS on the idea of "wedgyness" after the northerly this weekend, perhaps slowing the trough down a bit.
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10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 25th (day 7)
The northerly looks quite nippy for this weekend.
0z ensemble means, out to Tue 2nd (day 15)
The signal is unfortunately clear and consistent for a "big trough" arriving later next week...
12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 25th (day 7)
The "wedgyness" shown by some of the models this afternoon - particularly GFS (which I can see as of writing this is going the same way on its 18z run) - is a curiosity, but judging from the ensemble means seen below, it looks doomed to come to nothing.
12z ensemble means, out to Tue 2nd (day 15)
No change to the prognosis for the last week of March - just look at that trough!
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11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7)
12z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15)
Happy Easter everyone
0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 25th (day 7)
The northerly looks quite nippy for this weekend.
0z ensemble means, out to Tue 2nd (day 15)
The signal is unfortunately clear and consistent for a "big trough" arriving later next week...
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10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7)
The trough passing to our east may produce a brief northerly for next weekend.
0z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15)
Once the little toppling ridge has passed over us, will the developing trough to our west meet rising heights to our east - again? I feel we've already seen this pattern several times in the preceding months.
12z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7)
12z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15)
Happy Easter everyone
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12 hours ago, Rain All Night said:
12z deterministic runs, out to Sat 23rd (day 7)
12z ensemble means, out to Sun 31st (day 15)
Just for fun, the ECM ensemble clusters for days 11-15:
And the representative members for each cluster at day 15, the very end of March:
0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7)
The trough passing to our east may produce a brief northerly for next weekend.
0z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15)
Once the little toppling ridge has passed over us, will the developing trough to our west meet rising heights to our east - again? I feel we've already seen this pattern several times in the preceding months.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I wish I had your optimism