Rain All Night

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 5 May (day 7) - bank holiday Sunday Discordance at day 7: GFS and AIFS are showing us what I meant previously about there being plenty of ways for the bank holiday weekend to go wrong, but the regular ECM shows us how it could go just right. 0z ensemble means, out to Mon 13 May (day 15) Each ensemble prefers the take of its own deterministic run on how we will fare over the bank holiday weekend. They start to agree again around 9th May on a resurgence of high pressure from the south, though it appears this could be followed once again by retrogression of high pressure into the Atlantic and another cold trough setting up to our east towards mid-May.

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 4 May (day 7) - bank holiday Saturday Possible brief warmth on the bank holiday weekend, but plenty of ways for it to go wrong? 0z/6z ensemble means, out to Sun 12 May (day 15) Perhaps some anticyclonic activity over the UK around 9th May? Otherwise, not much to report.

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 3 May (day 7) I'll take the developments from 1st May onwards without complaint - from the Met Office app forecast, it looks as though even down here in the far south we will see improved temperatures along with the inevitable showers. Should be nice for those further north who may stay dry? 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 11 May (day 15) Through the first five days of May, we will see upper-level high pressure retrogress gracefully through the UK, teasing us with warmer air before leaving us once again at the mercy of cooler pressure patterns, which currently seem to be favoured by the ensembles right through the first third of May.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 2 May (day 7) Start of May doesn't look too bad for the northeast and Scotland then? 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 10 May (day 15) GEFS still doesn't want that easterly! Later on it's still just the same story of Atlantic ridging with us looking to be on the cold side of it.

Ooh hello:

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 1 May (day 7) Could we see that warmer easterly right at the beginning of May? Both flavours of ECM plus the UKMO seem to think it's possible... 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 9 May (day 15) The ECM mean wants to support its op on the idea of warmer air coming in briefly from the east right at the beginning of May. Beyond that we have clear signs of anticyclonic activity in our vicinity in early May, but with an equally clear risk that this will remain too far to our west or southwest for us to warm up. Why did it feel so darn cold when I woke up this morning?! Current temperature (colours) and wind (lines) at 850hPa (left) and at the surface (right), screenshotted from https://earth.nullschool.net/ at something like 10am this morning.

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 30 Apr (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Wed 8 May (day 15) It is as yet far from clear that the ridging activity that is evident from the Azores high in the first week of May is going to reach the shores of Britain... it currently seems that more ensemble members are going for it pushing up unhelpfully to our west instead... We have now entered the four month period of the year with the best solar input... my frustration levels rapidly increase if we don't see favourable synoptic patterns during this precious time!

0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 29 Apr (day 7) The problem we will have heading into this coming weekend is that we will have to be prepared for rain to fall at pretty much any time, anywhere, even if not necessarily for sustained periods... 0z ensemble means, out to Tue 7 May (day 15) Some slight hope of an improvement towards the end of the first week of May, maybe?!

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 28 Apr (day 7) Again going to refrain from any commentary on these runs... 0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 6 May (day 15) It's clear that low pressure will be in control from Wednesday until the end of April. These ensemble means suggest that some perturbations may be showing pressure rises (surface or upper) over the UK from the beginning of May.

WYorksWeather Thanks. Didn't think it was going to be good news... I had definitely allowed myself to be fooled into thinking that the loss of the westerly influence meant significantly improved weather for the UK. I won't make that mistake again!

I'd love to hear a forecast of surface conditions into next weekend based on the 12z model runs if anyone fancied posting one.

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 27 Apr (day 7) I don't think I can provide commentary on these without getting my post moved to the moans thread, so I'm not going to bother 0z ensemble means, out to Sun 5 May (day 15) ECM offers the most hope of Azores high ridging providing deliverance for at least the south of Britain into early May. The other two models look like they prefer to keep this activity too far west for us to benefit.

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 26 Apr (day 7) ...oh, balls. How very disappointing... 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 4 May (day 15) That miserable trough from the east looks like it's going to move west and attack us head-on in the latter part of next week. It's not then clear whether the Azores high will be in a position to spare us from the trough subsequently establishing itself on the Atlantic side. That's how I'm seeing it, anyway.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 25 Apr (day 7) GFS persists with its mini-beast. 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 3 May (day 15) GEFS shows something mildly threatening in the Atlantic right out at the end of week 2, but ECM does not. GEFS also seems to want the eastern trough in the nearer timeframe to cause us more misery than ECM does.

12z deterministic runs, out to Wed 24 Apr (day 7) GFS can do one 12z ensemble means, out to Thu 2 May (day 15)

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 24 Apr (day 7) Harmony up to day 7 from the models this morning. There will be a cold pool sliding under the southeast during the first part of next week. 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 2 May (day 15) The northeasterly flow looks like it will continue for quite a while. Not quite clear yet whether the Atlantic heights are going to endure into the beginning of May.

12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 23 Apr (day 7) ECM machine learning model - yes please! GFS - no thank you! 12z ensemble means, out to Wed 1 May (day 15) Wow, it looks like we will be under a reversed, initially northeasterly flow from the middle of next week through to the end of the month. That's not going to bring the warm conditions I've been hoping for, but at least it's something interesting. I don't remember the last time the UK experienced a northeasterly flow. Does anybody know when it was?

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 23 Apr (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Wed 1 May (day 15) GEFS diverges early (day 6) by sending low pressure over the top of our high from west to east, and then again subsequently by not sending as much high pressure north-westwards as the other two models do. Incidentally though, this doesn't make a whole lot of difference to the prognosis for us: a warm(er) settled weekend followed by a change to cooler conditions not of Atlantic origin. We're not quite yet at the point where we can gain much insight into how the month is going to end, but I suspect we're not too far off.

12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 22 Apr (day 7) Most of the (modest) shenanigans we've seen over the past 36 hours ago have disappeared now. Fine weather for all throughout next weekend looks to be the most likely scenario. 12z ensemble means, out to Tue 30 Apr (day 15) Interestingly, it looks like the pattern will lapse into something cooler again by the end of next week, but without any Atlantic influence (contrary to this morning's GEFS runs). I don't have time to wait for the full ECM ensemble to come out, so the abridged version will have to do. It goes just about far enough out to show the appearance of a cold trough to our east, supporting the GEFS and GEM ensembles.

0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Mon 22 Apr (day 7) Three of these are showing ICON's little easterly now, including ECM. GFS 6z has a different take: 0z/6z ensemble means, out to Tue 30 Apr (day 15) GEFS 0z wants to take the high northwest, and then the GEFS 6z wants to take it really northwest - too far northwest, look what happens after.

12z ensemble means, out to Mon 29 Apr (day 15) Is that some kind of trough-type-thing developing just to our east later on? It looks as though the high may ultimately move back out west, but seemingly not northwest.

12z deterministic runs, out to Sun 21 Apr (day 7) ECM machine learning model continues its rebellion, and ICON goes for an easterly... otherwise, beautiful charts for next Sunday!

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 21 Apr (day 7) The ECM AI model shows the UK high coming under threat from an Icelandic system next Sunday, but it stands alone. All of the other models display splendid frames for next weekend, especially further west. 0z ensemble means, out to Mon 29 Apr (day 15) You can see that perhaps towards the last days of April, beyond day 10, some member runs in these ensemble suites may be showing outcomes where the blocking breaks down.

Mike Poole Cambrian Great posts from you both, thank you. @Cambrian It's noteworthy that the outlook is finally good enough that you don't need to resort to any of your wonderful humour!

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 20th Apr (day 7) GFS showing some interest in retrogression of the high later, in line with its ensemble mean below. 0z ensemble means, out to Sun 28th Apr (day 15) GEFS seems more keen on the high eventually moving northwest than the other two models. All three agree that the Atlantic will be steadfastly blocked right through to the end of the month. Been a long time since we've been able to say that!