Rain All Night

I hope we can find a way for the Atlantic bowling ball to fail to reach our alley once our little easterly is done with.

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 12th (day 7) Southerly incoming..? 0z ensemble means, out to Wed 20th (day 15) Same as the last few runs really, ECM offering the most hope that the developing Atlantic trough will be stalled.

Metwatch SSW-induced confusion?

Well I'd take this over the 12z run. I believe the SSW has started today... definitely more "high" than "low" at 10hPa now by the looks of it:

summer blizzard It's combed its hair today

12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 11th (day 7) I won't even try to comment on the mess beyond day 4, I just know I don't want the GFS to verify! 12z ensemble means, out to Tue 19th (day 15) As has been the case for the last several runs, ECM is putting up much more of a fight against the Atlantic than GEFS. But the two do agree that high-latitude blocking is likely to have disappeared by the end of the second week of March.

Just for fun now that we have two full-length 6z runs to compare, and I know which one I'd take...

0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 11th (day 7) It looks likely that the low will fumble its limbo act and spray us with rain as it makes its way under next weekend. 0z ensemble means, out to Tue 19th (day 15) The noble ECM is putting up more of a fight against the Atlantic than the other two models from 11th March onwards. The GEFS is, again, pretty depressing to see.

12z deterministic runs, out to Sun 10th (day 7) We see significant divergence after day 5 this afternoon. Not sure what on earth's going on with that ICON run! Only UKMO is showing the absolute nightmare washout scenario for next weekend, so that's something, though it doesn't look like the south coast will be able to escape some rain in any scenario. 12z ensemble means, out to Mon 18th (day 15) The ECM and GEM means are now suggesting that the low actually will go under - but also that the Atlantic will still come back into the picture a few days later regardless. The GEFS again prefers to bring the Atlantic back more quickly and with less equivocation. Bonus Meanwhile, far above, it's looking increasingly plausible that the stratospheric polar vortex may not be returning before the autumn. But what, if anything, will that mean for us?

bluearmy Yeah, that's what I was referring to.

bluearmy I'm hoping the AIFS runs don't take quite as long to be published as the ECM ensemble/control runs.

The evidence so far available... ("IFS" is regular ECM) AIFS day 10 is about as good as classic ECM day 9 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_3m_fc_aimodels_wp_mean?area=Europe&parameter=Geopotential 500hPa&score=Anomaly correlation

Derecho I've just noticed from the blurb on both Meteociel and Wetterzentrale that the AIFS runs out to 360 hours on all of 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z. So now the GFS won't be the only "pub run" available for us to view on these sites!

Anyone else looking forward to the presumably inevitable machine learning model ensemble suites becoming available?

0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sun 10th (day 7) Oh pleeease let that low go under and not blow up, I so want to stay dry... 0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 18th (day 15) These ensemble means suggest that the low won't go under, and that the pattern will flatten out from 13th March (or earlier on the GEFS), with less sign of residual mid-latitude blocking than yesterday. Rats.

12z deterministic runs, out to Sat 9th (day 7) Note the new (to Meteociel) addition here - the ECMWF machine learning model, AIFS. 12z ensemble means, out to Sun 17th (day 15) It's been 36 hours since I posted the outputs, and what I see now is that we're left with the impression from the ensemble means that the high-latitude block will collapse from about 13th March - I think @Met4Cast has been predicting that. However, the subsequent signal is for a mid-latitude block, so all is not lost in the dryness stakes.

You are 100?!

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 8th (day 7) Since everyone else is focusing on cold... dry spell probably looking good. 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 16th (day 15) Looks like the Atlantic could be held at bay for at least a week... would be much appreciated.

12z ensemble means, out to Thu 15th (day 15) The ECM and GEFS means generally suggesting the Atlantic failing to take back control after 6th/7th March, but still sitting close enough to interfere at times (GEFS more earlier on, ECM more later on). 12z deterministic runs, on Thu 7th (day 7) Seems likely it will be dry for most or all of us on this day next week. Hallelujah.

@Mike Poole The mean minimum has crept back up from -18m/s to -12m/s, I don't suppose we could have a third disappearing SSW in a row could we?

0z/6z ensemble means, out to Thu 15th (day 15) I'm looking at the ensemble means in a slightly more pessimistic light this morning; it's possible we (or at least, most of us) might only see a few dry days from the 6th before the Atlantic trough lodges itself to our southwest and causes misery to those not sufficiently far away from it. Perhaps more members late in these runs suggesting that there will be a loss of amplification towards mid-March, though that is less apparent on the GEFS. 0z/6z deterministic runs, on Thu 7th (day 7) As with last night, ECM and ICON still the most appealing to my tastes.

12z ensemble means, out to Thu 14th (day 15) These means make me feel as though a modest dry/continental spell some time from the 6th March onwards is perhaps a little more likely than not at the moment, though some miserable outcomes still remain on the table. I don't feel we've learned a huge amount from this afternoon's runs. 12z deterministic runs, on Wed 6th (day 7) I'll take ECM or ICON home tonight - Scandi highs are pretty.

0z/6z ensemble means, Wed 28th to Thu 14th (day 15) The main question for now remains, will we see some dry days from 6th March, or will the Atlantic trough stay too close? 0z deterministic runs, Wed 6th (day 7)

Anyone else got a funny feeling that the upcoming Scandi block is being over-modelled and that the Atlantic trough it will be competing with is being under-modelled? You kinda just know...

12z deterministic runs, Wed 28th to Tue 5th (day 7) 12z ensemble means, Wed 28th to Wed 13th (day 15) Earlier on I'd take the GEFS as it looks drier, but later on, we've got a new signal - the demise of the block to our east, and in the case of the GEFS, a significant flattening of the heights profile. ECM and GEM prefer to hint that the heights may be moving over to our west side. Bonus The mean zonal winds bottom out at around -18m/s on around 10th March (day 12) on this morning's EC46. That's certainly much more significant than the previous two reversals.