Rain All Night

ICON 0z vs 12z, lol...

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 26th (day 7) GFS and ICON are still finding height rises to mix things up a little at the beginning of next week. 0z ensemble means, out to Wed 3rd (day 15) The one bit of hope to cling to is that the trough signal seems to peak just before the start of the actual Easter weekend. The GEFS is as keen as the GFS on the idea of "wedgyness" after the northerly this weekend, perhaps slowing the trough down a bit.

12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 25th (day 7) The "wedgyness" shown by some of the models this afternoon - particularly GFS (which I can see as of writing this is going the same way on its 18z run) - is a curiosity, but judging from the ensemble means seen below, it looks doomed to come to nothing. 12z ensemble means, out to Tue 2nd (day 15) No change to the prognosis for the last week of March - just look at that trough!

0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 25th (day 7) The northerly looks quite nippy for this weekend. 0z ensemble means, out to Tue 2nd (day 15) The signal is unfortunately clear and consistent for a "big trough" arriving later next week...

12z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7) 12z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15) Happy Easter everyone

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7) The trough passing to our east may produce a brief northerly for next weekend. 0z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15) Once the little toppling ridge has passed over us, will the developing trough to our west meet rising heights to our east - again? I feel we've already seen this pattern several times in the preceding months.

12z deterministic runs, out to Sat 23rd (day 7) 12z ensemble means, out to Sun 31st (day 15) Just for fun, the ECM ensemble clusters for days 11-15: And the representative members for each cluster at day 15, the very end of March:

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 23rd (day 7) A little ridge is passing over us this morning, after which the next feature will be a tight little low swiping at us from the northwest on Tuesday, followed by a slack low forming to our south on Wednesday, the briefest of visits from the Azores high on Thursday, and finally the arrival of the pest from the northwest on Friday. 0z ensemble means, out to Sun 31st (day 15) From next weekend onwards, further intrusions from the northwest look probable, with plenty of cooler air in the mix keeping us waiting for those shorts-and-t-shirt days. Bonus With a couple of significant teleconnection events underway, alongside the now-rapid increase in solar input, you'd be hopeful for some kind of shake-up to our weather pattern in the next few weeks - for better or worse. (earth.nullschool.net screengrab shows winds at 10hPa as of now)

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 22nd (day 7) Might spring be springing at the end of next week - for some of us at least - thanks to the Azores high? 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 30th (day 15) It still looks like the swelling of the Azores high will be fairly brief, and that the pattern will then change to one with a more northwesterly vibe, with some kind of trough feature forming to our immediate west for the end of the month. I'm sure that'll be just lovely...

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 21st (day 7) The Azores high extension is heading towards the reliable timeframe, but how much of an impression will it make on the UK? Before that, a little ridge passes over us on Saturday, perhaps followed by an unpleasant-looking low pressure system on Tuesday. 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 29th (day 15) The signal for what happens after the Azores high extension remains vaguely suggestive of something cooler coming from the northwest, but there isn't a strong Atlantic ridge signal to go with this any more.

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 20th (day 7) A brief surface ridge over the weekend, and then some opportunities for some settled weather further south and east into next week. 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 28th (day 15) Still seeing a convincing signal for an Azores high extension towards the UK around the equinox, followed by a less convincing but nonetheless recurring signal for a pressure rise further west that could force a chillier air flow over us late in the month.

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 19th (day 7) Nothing interesting in the next week, doesn't look too bad down here for the most part. 0z ensemble means, out to Wed 27th (day 15) Azores ridge around the equinox, then maybe an Atlantic ridge towards the end of the month?

0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 18th (day 7) Outlook about as uninteresting as it gets, from what I can see... 0z ensemble means, out to Tue 26th (day 15) Other than the mean surface low shifting eastwards very late in these runs, there is not a lot to comment on.

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 17th (day 7) Just catching up, and I see this week's not looking too bad for me down here now, which is a relief. Not much sunshine on offer though. 0z ensemble means, out to Mon 25th (day 15) Possibly something ridge-like hinted at around the equinox, but otherwise not much interesting going on.

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 16th (day 7) Yes please ECM. The other models also show more heights to the east than were evident yesterday, so there's more hope of less rain for us. 0z ensemble means, out to Sun 24th (day 15) The ECM mean resembles its op earlier on, and while the signal isn't as strong as a few days back, it still has interest in an Atlantic height rise later. The other two means look like garbage unfortunately.

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 15th (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 23rd (day 15) The Atlantic height rise signal in deep FI on the ECM ensemble mean doesn't seem as strong this morning.

12z deterministic runs, out to Thu 14th (day 7) Today's runs are brought to you by: Weak pressure gradients at 500hPa, and seemingly nothing going on in the atmosphere that can pump up an anticyclone anywhere in the entire Europe & North Atlantic region, not even Iberia... while the Atlantic keeps on spawning its endless lows. 12z ensemble means, out to Fri 22nd (day 15) ECM still seeing something funky later on. ECM clusters for days 8-15:

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 14th (day 7) Must admit the crappiness of most of the later frames on these runs has taken me a little by surprise, UKMO excepted. Oh well, who needs a dry second week of March anyway, it can wait until the days are longer and the sun is stronger. 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 22nd (day 15) ECM is continuing its newly-assumed role as the bad cop earlier on, but still offers the intriguing height rise signal - focused to the west of the UK - later on, and the other two models show some signs of this as well. The ECM clusters from days 8-15:

Why does any SSW downwell? Realising I don't know the basics here...

12z deterministic runs, out to Wed 13th (day 7) Wow, what a mess! It's anyone's guess where we're going after day 4 at the moment. In a way, that makes things quite interesting. Personally, I'd take a southerly, which does seem to be on the table. In the later frames, I kind of get the vibe that there's no particularly strong force driving the weather in any particular direction at the moment. Which is perhaps quite a spring-like state of affairs? 12z ensemble means, out to Thu 21st (day 15) Now the roles have reversed, and it is ECM that is more progressive with the Atlantic earlier on! All three, though, show signs of height rises later, as the ECM did this morning, though not quite as strongly. The ECM clusters for days 8-15:

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 13th (day 7) Would be nice if that Atlantic trough would at least drag up a bit of warmth ahead of it, as suggested by the GFS. 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 21st (day 15) ECM is gradually giving in to GEFS on the Atlantic threat post 13th March. It is also showing a somewhat eye-catching height rise in deep FI... The clusters sitting behind that ECM deep FI height rise:

For those who have been looking at these charts for many more years than me, how plausible is it that the return to positive values in deep FI is just typical model behaviour of returning towards climatology, and won't actually verify?

Points for effort.

A few more decades..?

12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 12th (day 7) On GFS and UKMO, it almost looks as if the block could find a way to hold out... 12z ensemble means, out to Wed 20th (day 15) The ECM ensemble still wants to believe that there might be a way to stall the Atlantic advance. Not sure why some of the frames have glitched out, mind you...