Rain All Night

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 13th (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Sun 21st (day 15) Gotta head out and don't have time to wait for the full ECM ensemble to load, so the first 10 days will have to do...

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 12th (day 7) The best of the more settled weather now looks like it will be at the end of next week rather than mid-week. 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 20th (day 15) Let's hope ECM is wearing its "best model" hat today, as it's offering an appealing sequence of events to come: the Azores high extension we've already been expecting, followed by an Atlantic ridge approaching and initially sending a chilly northwesterly over us before the ridge moves directly over the UK, followed then by suggestion of further heightened activity from the Azores high. GEFS is not in concordance from the Atlantic ridge onwards (at least not on the 0z run - the 6z run is looking rather better). Edit: Here's that better-looking GEFS 6z run.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 11th (day 7) Keeping an eye out for any signs of the Azores high failing to push as far over Britain as expected. 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 19th (day 15) After the Azores high recedes, ECM is keen on ridging coming in from the west which would cool us back down again, GEFS doesn't show this but develops ridging over the UK in deep FI.

12z deterministic runs, out to Wed 10th (day 7) The semi-reliable period of our deterministic runs ends this afternoon on the first day of our anticipated upcoming settled spell. UKMO again wants to make this spell appear more anticyclonic for the UK than any of the other models. Before we get there, though, we may have to endure the passage of a rather nasty-looking low pressure system on Monday and Tuesday. 12z ensemble means, out to Thu 18th (day 15) Happily, the ensemble means all agree on mild and settled conditions spreading from the south between Wednesday and Saturday next week. After that, the signals diverge, but none of them are suggesting a return to a deep Atlantic trough.

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 10th (day 15) I've dug deep looking for another run that looks like the UKMO, but have come up short. 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 18th (day 15) The second half of next week still looks decent, and it appears we have some prospect of not falling straight back into an Atlantic trough situation afterwards.

I wish I had your optimism

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 9th (day 15) GFS, you utter troll. 0z ensemble means, out to Wed 17th (day 15) We can be hopeful of a visit from the Azores high during the latter half of next week, but it doesn't seem it would stick around for very long. GEFS isn't interested, which is a concern.

0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 15th (day 15) How do we get rid of the Atlantic trough?

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 6th (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Sun 14th (day 15)

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 4th (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 12th (day 15) I cannot think of anything interesting to say about these runs

12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7) 12z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15) We must have been bad people in a previous life, or perhaps in this one... there is an almost derisive lack of ambiguity here from the models.

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7) We are drowning in a sea of blue. 0z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15) It seems that the GEFS was right to never have been on board with the idea of a blocked dry spell for the UK. The Atlantic will undercut the Greenland high to our west rather quickly, and we will then continue as we were.

12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 1st (day 7) A dry continental flow is not looking like the likely outcome for much of the country. 12z ensemble means, out to Tue 9th (day 15) The upcoming block seems to have a shelf life of about a week, and it seems that there is potential for it to fail to bring us much in the way of dry weather during its tenure.

0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 1st (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Tue 9th (day 15) GEFS is slightly more inclined to follow ECM's lead this morning, though it still offers less strength and longevity to the block. All three models lose the block by the start of the second week of April.

12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Sun 31st (day 7) Ahh it's nice to see these later frames showing weather that isn't coming from the west for a change! 12z/18z ensemble means, out to Mon 8th (day 15) GEFS still seems less willing to buy into the colder scenarios favoured by ECM and GEM.

0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sun 31st (day 7) 0z/6z ensemble means, out to Mon 8th (day 15) Everyone sees colder and perhaps drier weather after Easter, but views are starting to differ beyond that.

12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7) 12z/18z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15) Very encouraging signals for Atlantic blocking to commence at the beginning of April, with only GEFS refusing to commit.

0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Sat 30th (day 7) The last week of March will be pure synoptic tedium... 0z/6z ensemble means, out to Sun 7th (day 15) ...but there are encouraging signs of Atlantic high pressure offering to change the game from the very beginning of April, which is now less than 10 days away.

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 29th (day 7) Solutions with the low activity further south (though not "interestingly" far south) do continue to appear, this time on the GFS. 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 6th (day 15) I want to see those higher mean heights coming a little bit closer to day 10 in subsequent runs please.

12z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7) The ECM solution remains just that little bit less miserable for us. 12z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15) The height rises late in these runs are starting to border on interesting.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7) ECM still different, though not as drastically so. 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15) We're now looking for a signal for what will happen after Easter, and we're not getting one yet.

12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Wed 27th (day 7) I tried so hard to find a friend for the ECM 12z. 12z/18z ensemble means, out to Thu 4th (day 15) Now it's ECM, not GEFS, putting extra heights on the map.

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 27th (day 7) It's almost fun to watch just how much of a monster our trough might turn out to be. 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 4th (day 15) My hopes that we will see much of an improvement in the latter half of the Easter weekend are fading.

12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 26th (day 7) Let's enjoy the brief but welcome influence from the Azores high for the next couple of days, before the hits the fan next week. To further illustrate @Uncertainty's post above, here is the GFS 18z run... 12z ensemble means, out to Wed 3rd (day 15)

ICON 0z vs 12z, lol...