Rain All Night

"Around the turn of the month, showers and longer spells of rain are expected across much of the UK, accompanied by stronger winds and a risk of gales, especially in the west. Temperatures likely to continue to be mild overnight and warm during the day, trending above normal for this time of year." - Met Office It is interesting to me to look at all the similar but different illustrations of this scenario that we have available to us, and how those differences can be much bigger than they first look... like how the GFS operational output has just managed to finally drag a cooler air mass successfully over the UK and France at the point in time shown, whereas the other two operational outputs have not.

Not sure which towns are, er, normal... but the last time I can find where this happened was 4th Feb 2012. It's mentioned in Roger Brugge's diary entry for that day. Since the coldest uppers were not over the UK on that day, I assume the low surface temps were caused by the high pressure giving a clear night without wind. It is interesting for me as a novice to compare the reanalysis charts from that day with those from some other famous cold days. AFAIK southern England did not reach -10C in 2018 in spite of the low maximum daytime temps we had. In 1987 the 850hPa temps over the UK were astonishing. This helps to put into context some of the forecast model outputs that other members are posting when they are getting excited about the possibility of cold.

Where does one view the 46-day ECM ensemble outputs?

9 days later, spot the difference...!?

Is this your support arriving on cue?

...its value is almost the same as the 500mb geopotential height?

Thank you very much. I see high pressure anomalies over half the planet, including around us and particularly to our west. I also see positive temperature anomalies here when I was expecting to see the opposite (in the nearest timescale at least) based on other posts here, am I misunderstanding?

Noob question, where would I find the seasonal models you both are referring to?

Just for fun I've had a look through charts for the same day in previous years to see if there's been anything similar in my lifetime to what's being forecast for next week, and 2001 stands out as being quite remarkably similar, and according to Google this was the third of three consecutive La Niña years, just like this year. In recent years, 2020 (also La Niña) looks the most similar, although it lacks the joined-up heights to the north.

Interesting, thank you. I won't get too excited as it seems there is plenty of scope for the SW low to be in the wrong position for that, or indeed nowhere to be seen at all at the surface:

Would I be right to assume that this would not create an 'enjoyable' warm spell because it also be a very wet one?

I have been curious about the motivation behind the Met Office's suggestion (which they have had online for the past week and have just strengthened slightly today) that we may see something more settled into November, I guess it must be based on observations like this one that are just a touch beyond me at present!!

Looking a bit more aligned now...

Our trough could peel away to the southwest after a few days, maybe kick some milder air back up behind it to mitigate its trail of chill..? Beyond that, the Met Office day 16-30 outlook has kept the following wording for four days now... Beginning in that timeframe and continuing beyond, a plurality of ECM ensemble members apparently demonstrate (Scandinavian) blocking...

The GFS model seems to be starting to entertain the possibility that its mid-month trough might stick around for more than just a few days after the 15th and maybe become the sort of feature you describe?

For the last couple of days, the Met Office outlook for days 16-30 has suggested an increasing possibility of more settled conditions from late October. Perhaps an observation similar to yours has factored into this? Alternatively, perhaps it's based on outputs like this, showing an increased chance of Scandinavian blocking late in the month?

While we wait for something interesting to happen, here is a fun permutation of the cold air pull from the deep low two weekends from now, with the -5 contour briefly covering Ireland and Scotland, and the 0 contour covering Madrid for several days. Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 06Z

Although I can't answer this question, I have found that the combination of these two tools seems really awesome for trying to understand this stuff! Surface Pressure Charts - Met Office earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions (nullschool.net)

My answer is apparently not, other than those up East possibly scraping 20c on what looks like it will be a cloudy day everywhere, oh well.

You can if I'm still making posts like that in November... until then let me dream my dream

As a fan of warmth who has been looking out for any sign of a final burst (really missing the late September warm spells of late '20 and '21!) I am pleased to see agreement on a warmer air mass being pulled up above us around Tuesday - but would this be enough to produce anything appreciable at the surface?

November 2021 did sustain settled weather in England for most of the month, right? So there is precedent...

This summary at the end of your post is very helpful as it allows me to compare the conclusions I have drawn from reading your analysis with your own conclusions, which tells me whether or not I have understood the analysis correctly. Thank you!

Can it be so said, in layman's terms, that the failure of the Atlantic to moderate away the heat while the sun was strong, could become a failure to moderate away the cold when the sun becomes weak, if the overarching pattern does not change?

Hello, I've often wondered why weather apps/web forecasts can seem to stick with their '10% chance of precipitation' symbol for the current hour in the current location even well after a deluge has begun. I imagine the explanation might be linked to the reason this model still shows such an improbable scenario so close to the time?