mike Meehan
-
Posts
9,624 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
46
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by mike Meehan
-
-
Looking at the fax charts, there seems to be a big jump between the 96 and the 120 and as far as I can make out the low which is on the sw tip of Greenland on the 96 suddenly ends up just to the nw of Scotland, while a euro high develops and is further north than what was shown on previous runs.
The temps in central/north Europe appear to be falling, so would this give encouragement to the high?
It seems to me as though the fat lady is still sitting down.
-
The irony being, 20yrs ago, there would've been a similar person pontificating that 'the truth of the matter is that we cant predict the weather in this country beyond 24 hours. Anything over that is guesswork,granted some educated, but guesswork nevertheless.'
You obviously take it for granted that there is an ability to forecast the weather out to 120hrs. It's those exact supercomputers and university degrees - whom you refer to so flippantly - which has given us that capability. If you take a phenomenon like Sudden Stratospheric Warming, potentially that's a new frontier in atmospheric understanding; one which could further extend the range of our confidence in a forecast. If you're really into meteorology, then that's exciting stuff.
Ensemble analysis, higher resolution layering, feedback cycling, and more and more powerful supercomputing resource IS the future of NWP. It's because it has to be. Every year there are hundreds, if not thousands, of experiments conducted by either universities or research institutions into various aspects of the weather and/or climate. It's the nuggets from those experiments; the little gems of knowledge or a relationship, that can help to refine what are inherently volatile algorithms.
It's really not about being 'fancy' either. Meteorology is a very, very, very complex field of science with an almost unimaginable level of complexity. But, where we - as scientists - to approach that complexity with such a defeatist attitude, then we wouldn't be able to have that confidence in 120hr computer-generated forecasts. There's an education to be had, for anyone who is willing enough to take the time and effort to understand the weather, more that it being just some random pretty pictures.
I agree with you inasmuch as since 1963 when I left the Met Office, there have been enormous strides made in research and computer programs, so much so that a lot of the terminology used today is somewhat akin to a foreign language to me today.
However having said that I do wonder whether at times too much reliance is being put on the computer models, which at the end of the day are only as good as the information put in, albeit that the latest forecasts have been quite accurate in the short term and under favourable conditions can be fairly accurate up to 5 days ahead.
At this stage of the evolution of meteorology there still has to be a fairly large human imput to interpret the different signals correctly and this is where the experience and if I dare say it, the intuition of the forecaster also comes into play together with a willingness to look out of the window and see what is actually happening.
To illustrate what I mean, the forecaster who correctly forecasted a weather window for the D Day landings in 1944 is not lost on me and at that time he would have had nothing like the information what is available today, nor the other wartime forecasters who had to use their experience to determine the weather conditions over Germany with the only possible source of information, apart from that which had already passed by and that of returning aircrews who very often had their first priority of trying to remain alive, with perhaps the odd agent, if he thought about it.
But as I suggested in an earlier post, improvements are likely as a result of the continuing research, though human experience, knowlege and expertise is still vital in making an accurate forecast.
-
In the last few years we have had some significantly colder spells especailly after the milder winters of most of the noughties, though this changed towards the end with snowfall at the end of October, which I had never experienced before.
For most of my life the early threats of wintry precipition tended to come about mid December, then it was usually a mild Christmas, though there have been some exceptions with the first real snows arriving, when they did, (if I recall correctly 1960/61 was a snowless winter with I believe a Bartlett high predominating) during January or February.
During some of the years we experienced some very cold spells with highs in the region of -5C but although this last session has been snowy, it has been nothing like as cold as that but I put that down to the cold being less intense on the continent, at least in Germany and Poland.
I was quite impressed by the forecaster, two or three nights ago on the TV, who gave us a small insight into Sudden Stratospheric Warming and how it can affect the normal pattern of atmospheric circulation and the jet streams and although this idea is still in its infancy the cause and effect of this particular cold spell was explained, so I tend to give it some weight.
This leads me on to wonder what does cause this sudden warming. - it can't be the direct action of the sun because those polar regions are in darkness 24/7, though even with the air as this as it is at those altitudes it must take quite a lot of energy, so if it is not coming directly from the sun where does it come from?
The only thing I can think of off the top of my head is that it could be an interaction between the Earth's magnetosphere and incoming radiation from space, which would include the sun. We know that there is some interaction there because it gives rise to the Aurora Bolearis.
PC studies the sun's cycles and applies these to the effect on long range weather forecasting, sometimes he is right and sometimes not - Joe laminate floori during his tenure with Accuweather studied 'cycles' not the Lance Armstrong type and came to the conclusion that we were due for a period of colder winters over the next 20 years or so. Since he said this, the winters in the UK and Europe appear to have been somewhat colder with more snow incidents, some of which have been very unusual, such as snow in the south of the UK at the end of October, which before the last few years I can never recall happening previously during my lifetime.
The traditional models work out to a certain extent but after a few days they can become inaccurate and lead to misleading forecasts. The chaos theory can be blamed for this to a fairly large extent but it does seem to me that they are working on less than full information, so inaccuracies are bound to happen.
What it requires, in my view, is a good open study of all these different theories, though PC does play his cards close to his chest but in the interests of the furtherance of scientific knowledge he should make his methods open to the rest of the scientific community for study, otherwise he remains saddled with the reputation of a charlatan selling snake oil as a cure all for everything.
With such further research, including the effect of possible solar cycles etc, it is likely that the accuracy of long range weather forecasting could be improved and a better understanding of the mechanisms of how the weather does what it does can be reached.
As to whether our climate is changing in the long term, it is difficult to say, just that there are quite wide variations within the natural cycles.
-
I would say that chart does suggest a breakdown in the following days from the NW. Already milder in the NW on that chart. It may stay cold at the surface for longer however but a breakdown looking likely but everything points to this being a temporary affair. I expect quite a few ensembles like the GFS op in 240+ timeframe.
I seem to recollect but I could be wrong after all this time, that the breakdown in '63 came from the NW - up there the temps were warmer and I got the idea that the attack was being made where there was the least resistance.
-
I had the impression that the forecaster on Country File this evening was hedging his bets towards the weekend and I can't say I blame him.
It does seem to me that the breakdown for Friday/Saturday is being brought on with indecent haste and I suspect the old lady won't wear it.
-
Judging by the plump look of those pigeons I would take that as meaning the bulk of this winter so far has not been cold
Around here - Watford - it hasn't - we've been in + territory for quite a bit during the last week, garden pond finally condescended to freeze over last night but now temps are up to a scorching 1.4C - still snowing though
-
Did you watch that 1963 documentary last night?
Atlantic may make inroads slightly, but I can't see it being full blown zonal. We need that vortex chunk over newfoundland to dissipate and then some true northern blocking will come into place.
Yes, I remember that 'thaw' about 26.01.1963 - it made me feel quite depressed, as though I was losing a good friend. However, all was not lost, it was only there for 2 or 3 days before my mate, 'Snowy' returned
-
Can anyone recall what this thread's is meant to be about?
er, pass, ask me another
-
I think it's going to stay cold after next week because I saw a pigeon sit on a branch of a tree that had no pigeons on it last week!
The above is about as reliable as the information that the models give us after T+96, and is perhaps why the analysis has been somewhat lacking recently
So what does this mean?
-
I often see 'short and long waves' referred to but not sure what they are.
Could somebody explain please what they mean in terms simple enough for my aged brain to understand.
-
Welcome to my world! in fact 6 months of snow on the ground isnt unusual..it just becomes the norm like rain in the UK is you just take no notice of it anymore.
Correct me if I am wrong because I have never lived in a climate with cold continental winters but I get the impression that though cold they are much drier most of the time and the human body is able to withstand dry cold and dry heat more easily than damp cold and humid heat.
The only thing I can relate to is when I have been out on a dry calm sunny day with a temperature of -5C it does feel relatively comfortable, whereas going out on a wet day with high humidity, it can feel cold enough to freeze your proverbials off.
-
Fingers crossed. I hope for a snowy Feb. Though as stupid as it sounds, snow doesn't tend to stick around at this elevation as the days lengthen.
Not necessarily - there was still plenty of snow, from what I have been told, in March '47 and on 07/08.03.2010 we had quite a snow storm in the South of France and the remnants of this lasted for a week - that same year, there was snow on relatively low hills in the region of Toulouse and I haven't done a physical check of this but my memory indicates that there have been more white Easters in my life time than white Christmases.
-
The way you explain this Mike shows me that the stratosphere thread must be a no go zone for you!
Give me a chance - I am an old dog trying to keep up with youngsters - when I did my course in 1960 a lot of the things referred to on this site had not been discovered and even though I am only just starting to learn I wonder if the stratosphere is a 'no go zone' in respect of the various models we are getting.
-
The man was on the box this evening explaining about the warming of the stratosphere - apparently this warming started about a couple of weeks ago and it is this which encouraged the polar air to break out of its box.
As far as I am aware this theory has been around for the last couple of years or so but I expect with increased observations we are now starting to get more of a handle on it and it may be that this would be a good forecasting tool.
As far as the Sandy highs are concerned, I think that the important thing is that they are cold and being cold they are more dense and the westerlies require more energy to move them, so they can tend to stay put - at the same time, this does not explain December when the temps in Scandinavia and west Russia were much lower, yet they gave up without hardly a squeak, or was it because the strat was still relatively cold, or the jet stream was stronger then?
We also have the mysterious dissipation of the cold spell at the end of 2010 when for my area it was quite a bit colder than what it was now and so far longer lasting.
Clearly the models are only a guide and by the sound of it, some better than others and I wonder if they are missing vital bits of information, such as the stat temps.
So far this week the thaw has been progressively put back, so that now instead of arriving at the beginning of the week, it is now due at the end and I wonder how much further it will be put back.
I noticed this same thing occurring during the cold spell of Dec 2010 and during the winter of '63 it appeared to be a natural inclination of some of the forecasters I worked with to try and bring in the westerlies.
The point being that we get some cold snaps which are merely brief passing episodes and others where the cold decides to dig in its heels and telling which is which sometimes appears to be difficult.
-
As far as I have noticed the opposite seems to be happening as far as Watford is concerned, the temperatures rarely get down to the forecast level, in fact it is showing -0.1C at the moment of writing - we must be on our own little heat island anybody fancy coming over for a barbie over the weekend
-
I am a strange fellow - I have always loved the snow and a good fall, especially of the dry powdery stuff still gets me excited, yet at the same time I hate being cold.
I remember when I were't lad in north Lincolnshire when the wind started to increase during the afternoon then after a little while it started to snow and it's intensity increased as the day wore on - so much so, that in the middle of the night I put on my slippers, then my dressing gown over my panjams and went outside so that I could experience it in all its glory and watch the the snow drifts taking shape in the wind. Funny enough I don't recall feeling cold on that occasion but the following morning I was a little disappointed to see it must have abated shortly after I went back to bed, after a fall of say, some 8 or 9 cms.
On the other hand I think the snow of '63 lasted just about long enough and it was great whilst it lasted but come March one's thoughts tend to go towards the anticipation of spring.
If it weren't for the occasional snow fall such as we had today I would happily hibernate through the winter months. I hate dark gloomy weather but the snow makes things lighter.
I don't think that the enjoyment of snow is confined to us humans - when we had dogs I could see that they absolutely loved going for walks in the snow, especially if it was somewhat deep and went 'ape' running through the drifts
-
Diffcult to measure round my house 'cos it has been drifting but I would estimate 5 to 6 cms on te level with 30 cm drifts - got a lull at the moment but the radar promises more.
Temp rose slightly above freezing at midday but now -0.7C and preciptiation just staring again but very slight.
-
Looking at Friday's fax chart, it looks to me that with the two lows hanging out to the west, one could travel to the north east and the other to the south east leaving the HP mostly intact with the possibility of snow from the southern most once since it is pretty near the channel - I would have thought they would have followed the line of least resistance.
http://www.netweathe...s;type=fax;sess=
Click on 96 hours
-
At the moment the Atlantic is forecast to break through in about a week's time but who knows, if that Scandy High is able to dig in its heels, it may be another story for some time yet - I personally work on the theory that if the cold can get sufficiently entrenched, it becomes that much more difficult to shift it.
As it is some of the the central Euro temps have not been that particularly cold lately but should the westward drift force them down, it may be encouraged to develop - a week is still a long time in meteorology.
-
That radar speak with forked tongue - it said precipitation at Watford at 0115 - it still say precipitation but roads dry and I see nothing coming down - I even opened the window and shone torch but still no sign.
-
I know what you mean - the easterly charts always collapse before the reliable one way or another. I would just like to see a real blizzard across my part of the world (the sort of thing that drops half a meter of snow over 12 hrs as I remember as a child), but there is nothing on any charts showing anything like this at all.
I know exactly what you mean - the powdery stuff as well which we so rarely get - I think that what we need is an area of intense cold over Europe so that it it gives a chance for a blocking high to build but at the moment the temps are just a little below normal. Bearing in mind the warming effect of the North Sea we need the max temp down to about -8C at Amsterdam to be assured of a good 'ice day' over here.
I feel like giving up on the current situation and looking forward to a warm sunny spring
-
On this run upgrade on low uppers onto eastern areas:
12z:
18z: Short term better.
The 18Z looks as though it could produce a Thames streamer if it can pick up sufficient moisture from the Channel - however there should be a bit of precipitation in tha LP.
-
Not overly optimistic about a 'Beast from the East, at the moment - as far as I see it the continental and Scandi temps are a tad too warm for anything meaningful like ice days of -5C and any snow we get it likely to be on the wet side and not long lasting.
There is still time for a situation to develop but a repeat of the December figures on the continent coupled with a strong easterly would be needed, otherwise it is likely to be a case of snow followed by rain then rain followed by snow with max's mainly above zero for my part of the world.
-
I must admit there has been some very childish posts in here this evening. I think people are forgetting that the weather drives the models...not the other way round! At the end of the day data is fed in, a few numbers crunched and out pops a pre programmed solution. I think it is a really fascinating time watching the way the models are dealing with this set up and I'm sure all will become more apparent as the next few outputs roll out. The differences between the big players are actually very small within the 120hr timeframe, but these small differences cause huge changes further down the line. I'll be watching the 00z's with great anticipation, we should have a roller coaster of a day model watching coming up!
I must admit that though I am still a little boy of 70 years of age I get very excited by the prospect of snow, especially if the lovely powdery stuff is in the offing and spend ages looking at the various charts in hope, often to be disappointed but that's life.
Are our Winters changing?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I don't really see why - in my view discussion of climate, whether or not it is changing and whether or not the changes are man made is a valid and legitimate subject for discussion and if attempts are being made to suppress it I won't be best pleased.
After all climate stems from weather.
Admittedly views can get heated at times but it is not as drawing cyber pistols in a duel at dawn will kill or injure anybody - we should all be grown up enough to take the varying different points of view in our stride and people should be free to express them provided they remain within the bounds of common courtesy,