mike Meehan
-
Posts
9,624 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
46
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by mike Meehan
-
-
I remain optimistic that if they search hard enough something will be found, though the problem will be avoiding contamination.
-
Unfortunately Mike, it does seem as though some for of carbon sequestration or geoengineering is going to be necessary, because unlike the CFC issue, there are simply too many incredibly powerful groups reliant on continued fossil fuel exploitation and too much inertia and fear about moving away from a fuel source that has been a staple of economic growth for over a century.
It was a natural form of carbon sequestration, that sent helped us towards our current ice-house climate, called Azolla Event. Then, a fern growing in a warm Arctic Ocean with a freshwater layer managed to take enough carbon out of the atmosphere to drop CO2 from 3500ppm to 650ppm
That is exactly the point I was trying to make that it is not expedient for many to decrease their carbon output; that is why I am trying to look at other methods of trying to keep the CO2 in balance.
I did not know about the Azolla Event but it is comforting to know that nature is not so daft as the species, Homo Sapien, which sometimes appear to be a contradiction in terms. But no doubt this event occurred over several millenia which is time we do not have.
So as I understand it, the melting ice caps would form a layer of fresh water over the arctic regions which when warmed allows the Azolla to propagate and in doing so it absorbs the CO2 from the atmosphere, though to seed all our fresh water lakes which would be suitable would create havoc with their eco systems but it is being used on a more minor scale who use it in flooded paddy fields in order to create a fertiliser for the later rice crop.
If we are to redress the carbon balance some kind of geobiological engineering would appear to be necessary and this would not be quick either. Not only that we would have to be careful not to produce something which does not have a runaway effect and could be kept under control - that is the reason I suggested, for example the irrigation of the Sahara Desert through desalinated water, though it would be a gigantic undertaking with political/social problems to take into account along the way.
I would be interested to hear what proposals you may have along these lines.
-
Just assuming that all these blokes wearing sandwich boards portraying the message 'The End is Nigh' are correct, we are not getting a lot of success in obtaining international agreements to limit the amount of CO2 and other greenhouses gases discharged into the atmosphere - the Americans have never been wholehearted about these different agreements and the developing countries quite natuarally want to catch up with the west but in the course of doing so using older technologies which put out CO2, the degree of ice melt in the arctic summer seems to be a clarion call to those who fill us us with yet more foreboding, despite 4WD's post indicating that climate change and melting ice were big topics of conversation back in in the 30's, 75 years ago, so if these are correct and some appear to consider that action is urgently needed, what are we going to do?
Clearly the idea that all the countries of the world should co-operate in the urgent reduction of the greenhouse gases isn't working since they need sources of power to improve their economies.
The other alternative as I alluded to a couple or so posts ago was to concentrate on the biospere and literally enrourage the growth of 'carbon sinks'
First and foremost immediate action should be taken to prevent any further destruction of the rain forests,
Secondly a long term project could be started by nibbling away at the desert regions of the world by using solar energy, of which there is an an abundance, to desalinate sea water to use for irrigation whereby a mixture of trees and cash crops could be planted.
These trees and crops would put out water vapour in the atmosphere in those regions which would have the effect of making the air less moist, initially having little effect on the local weather conditions but this increases with the increases in area under cultivation - a few thousand years ago the Sahara desert was much more fertile with forests growing along the coastal areas and was in fact used as the 'bread basket' by the Romans.
The extra vegetation would help in taking some of the CO2 out of the atmosphere, it would help cool the region if done on a large enough scale, the dead and decayed vegetation would help fertilise the soil and these would have an added benefit of contribuiting more food to help the world's increasing population.
We have the technology to do this now. Doubtless it will be an extremely long process covering several centuries but wouldn't it be better to start the process now instead of sitting about wringing our hands in despair?
As it is at the moment the desertification of our world is increasing and with the will and use of modern technology this does not have to be the case.
-
I was quite surprised - the long range forecast by accuweather fo Capestang on 03.11.2012 is forecasting rain and snow, so I checked with Meteo Ciel and sure enough they showed cold weather coming down in this direction with a dollop over the Massif.
I checked accuweather further for Issoire which is on the Northern slope of the Massif and their forcast was for just less than 20cms of the white stuff in that date. Sure enough it is a long time ahead and there is many a twixt 'tween cup & lip but it will be interesting to see how this particular set up pans out in actual fact but at the moment it does appear that parts of Europe are going to get an early blast of winter - possibly.
On the other hand I am due to travel up that way on 09.11.2012 and if Issoire is going to get some 20cms at 500 to 600 metres altitude I wonder what it is going to be like on the top at 1125 metres. Time will tell.
-
A long list of cuttings from conveniently forgotten Extreme Events is listed here.
A clear case of deju vue but in reverse - the people in the 30's seem to be saying exactly the same thing as people are saying today - might it be that for some reason peoples' memories or ability to research further back in records is impeded for some reason?
-
Actually, much evidence now suggests that we were on a long-term downward trend before our recent abrupt warming, rather than CO2 just adding a little to existing warming trend.
Anyway, the main thing is that nobody (I think) is claiming that CO2 is directly causing the shift in recent weather patterns. It's that the effect is indirect. The warming has caused numerous things to occur, such as the Arctic sea ice loss and spring/summer snow cover reductions. This loss then effects the surface air temperature and atmospheric thickness over the Arctic, which affect the jet stream, the AO, the NAO and others. The large amounts of ice melt and refreeze will also effect the thermohaline circulation through changes in ocean salinity (brine rejection in Autumn and Winter, freshening in Spring and Summer) which can also effect our weather.
That's just a small part of a horribly complicated situation!
The main worry looking into the future, is that in the past, natural warming from things like the Milankovitch cycles would cause the release of CO2 which would then amplify the warming effect, before natural cooling would then lower CO2 levels, amplifying the cooling effect.
Now we are putting CO2 into the atmosphere that has been locked up for millions of years, and eventually, through things like methane hydrate destabilisation, permafrost melting, etc., we will likely start seeing the planet begin to release extra CO2, just as it did in previous natural warming cycles. This is when things will get really bad. Even a strong natural cooling cycle may not lower global temperatures if that begins to happen.
Even in the last 15 years we've seen the PDO, ENSO and Solar Activity all trend strongly downward yet global temperatures are still creeping upward... what will happen when they switch back to +ve trends?
I agree that further down the line, if warming continues there is the possibility of methane release and if this happens I have heard that this could increase global temperatures by 10C.
Even if we arrested the output of CO2 today, it would still be some considerable time before the levels dropped to below pre-industrial revolution levels.
Though we are not helping by the devastation of so much rain forest - this causes damage in more than one way since during the process of respiration the forests release vast amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere and without these the arid regions will increase. At the same time I think it should be possible with the right research to develop 'greedy' plants i.e. plants which have a capacity to take in above normal amounts of CO2 and increase the plant life back into deserts by using solar energy to desalinate sea water to use for irrigation. This will gradually increase cultivation with time and could become more self sustaining with the increase of plant life in these areas.
Probably something for a brave new world without the derisive politics of today.
-
Saw the program last night and found it interesting - what comes out is that the sun has cycles over and above the 11 year sun spot cycle and the little ice age was attributed to a 50 year period without any sun spots, making northern Europe more suscepticle to blocking highs, hence the cold winters.
Our investigation into the sun's climate is very much in its infancy but there is little doubt that changes in output could have a profound effect on the climate and weather of the earth and I suspect that there other cycles to be discovered which may operate on differing time lengths from possibly millions, thousands and hundreds of years right down to the 11 year cycle we know the best.
Some of these cycles could give a tendency for colder conditions and some for warmer conditions. At times the cycles could coincide to make peaks of colder or warmer weather and at other times they could cancel each other out to varying degrees.
It's not surprising to learn that the heating of the Atlantic gives rise to bigger and better storms because more heat in the system equates with more energy and these events do not happen in isolation but have a knock on effect to other parts of the world.
There's an old saying which says that there is nothing new under the sun, so I would repeat my original suggestion that the so called wierd events of today are part of natural variations which occur over periods of time - the carbon di-oxide in our atmosphere probably adds a smaller part to this and will have some effect but the earth has been through relatively high concentrations of CO2 without any help from man.
We appear to be in an interglacial period at the moment and sooner or later this will come to an end then people will start panicking about finding ways to conserve the heat.
-
-
It does remind of the time when my son was born on 05.03.1970 - At the time we were living in Hemel Hempstead and had arranged for a home birth - the snow had started the previous day and quickly accumulated to some 15 cms - as far as my wife was concerned there were signs that things were starting to happen, so during the afternoon I made my way to the phone box (we couldn't afford the luxury of home telephones in those days) so I could let the midwife know in good time, concerned that the depth of the snow would affect travel.
It continued snowing and by the next moring our son Richard had made his debut into the world and I took our daughter Emma into the garden to make an igloo for her; by that time the snow depth was some 20 cms.
Unfortunately it did not last too long after that, melting during the next few days - fortunately Richard outlasted this by a long way and now has his own family.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=Extra&FILE=extra_pe&DAY=20100320
-
1
-
-
Your post seems to almost be suggesting someone's claimed that extreme weather never happened until now... You're simply using anecdotes to deny the original article.
I think the first line is perhaps a bit misleading: it's simply that the change from moderate drought to extreme wetness has, statistically, never been so rapid.
I believe that the summer/autumn of 1976 showed quite some contrast between very dry and very wet conditions. In fact the rains came just as the government appointed a minister for drought. There's nothing new in having a relatively dry winter followed by a wet summer and statistically more rain falls in summer than winter anyway with February being on average one of the driest months of the year.
I can't be 100% certain about this but as far as I am aware detailed observations and stats have been kept in this country on a centrally organised basis since 1854 since the formation of the Meteorological Office. Prior to this details of weather happenings were ad hoc entries in various diaries, ship's logs, newspaper reports etc. and other historical records. Whilst all these were well meaning we cannot vouch absolutely for the absolute accuracy of such reports, which although they can give a fair idea of the weather conditions at the time cannot be regarded as having the same accuracy as current observations and statistics.
So in short, those basing their opinions on accurate stats can really only go back just short of 160 years at the most, which isn't that long in the big scheme of things, especially when you consider that from the start of the medieval warming period to the end of the Little Ice Age was measured in hundreds of years and prior to that there was a warm period during the time of the Roman occupation. Even then the stories of the ice fairs on the Thames would not occur the same nowadays because changes in the river embankments mean that now it is faster flowing.
Going further back we can get rough estimates of the types of seasons we were having from such things as core samples a tree rings but these are rarely going to record individual events unless there is some catastrophic evidence still laying around,say in the form of fallen trees, so since the end of the last ice age, the best we can do is to draw a broad view of former conditions.
-
I don't know what is so weird about the weather we have been having lately - our climate/weather has always been rather changeable with some notable climaxes at times.
Off the top of my head and prior to our present era, there are the winters of 1947 and 1963 - it was also pretty bad circa 1940 - prior to the current year we had notable summers in 1959 and 1976 and a period of drought in the 70's.
We had the storm of October 1987 and quiet a few others prior to that - don't forget that it was stormy conditions which were the death knell of the Spanish Armada. Flooding has occcurred on numerous occasions, though nowadays it is more noticable because some silly idiots are building on flood plains - the presence of so many more hard surfaces such as increased road areas, car parks and the number of hard driveways built at peoples' houses make it that much more difficult for the water to soak into the ground and they all add up.
In short our weather can often be and has been out of the ordinary and it is not remarkable that we go through a certain number of years of warmth, then cold, then wet, then drought - having a maritime climate we are at the mercy of the weather gods and likely to be so for the foreseeable future.
I think that too much is being read into a relatively short period of stats.
-
Strewth, they'll have to catch a plane to Kiwiland for their skiing.
-
After a cold crisp winter with some snow I would like to see the temperatures warm up from the middle to the end of Feb so that any snow left melts in the sunshine and is not washed away by dismal warm fronts.
Temps to gradually rise through March to reach a max of 22C by the end - we will have to have some rain to start the growing season off but I would prefer this in the form of showers through to the beginning/middle of May with temps still rising to a max of 28 by the end of May.
Then I would like to see some anticyclonic weather through to July with lovely crystal clear skies and warm evenings with temps up to 32 C giving the opportunity for BBQ's outside and if the neighbours are singing late at night I will go round and join them - I can sing out of tune as well as anybody else.
Continuing the mainly dry warm/hot weather through July and August with a thunderstorm every few days to keep the water boards and the farmers happy, provided they don't cause too much damage to the crops. Max temps still about 32C but falling off to 28C at the end.
September and October to continue with a dry theme with the max falling to 21C - I love seeing the the change of leaf colour silhouhetted against a clear azure sky.
If we have to have some frontal rains and fogs, let's get them over and done with during November and the first half of December, then look forward to a period of crisp dry snow and sunshine.
-
Now that's a good way to earn 'brownie points' - why didn't I think of that
-
Slowly, and in some quarters grudgingly, the influence of genes in shaping political outlook and behaviour is being recognised
IN 1882 W.S. Gilbert wrote, to a tune by Sir Arthur Sullivan, a ditty that went “I often think it’s comical how Nature always does contrive/that every boy and every gal that’s born into the world alive/is either a little Liberal or else a little Conservative.â€
In the 19th century, that view, though humorously intended, would not have been out of place among respectable thinkers. The detail of a man’s opinion might be changed by circumstances. But the idea that much of his character was ingrained at birth held no terrors. It is not, however, a view that cut much ice in 20th-century social-scientific thinking, particularly after the second world war. Those who allowed that it might have some value were generally shouted down and sometimes abused, along with all others vehemently suspected of the heresy of believing that genetic differences between individuals could have a role in shaping their behavioural differences.
Such thinking, a product compounded of Marxism (if character really is ingrained at birth, then man might not be perfectible) and a principled rejection of the eugenics that had led, via America’s sterilisation programmes for the “feeble mindedâ€, to the Nazi extermination camps, made life hard for those who wished to ask whether genes really do affect behaviour. Now, however, the pendulum is swinging back. In the matter of both political outlook and political participation it is coming to be seen that genes matter quite a lot. They are not the be-all and end-all. But, as a review of the field published in September in Trends in Genetics, by Peter Hatemi of Pennsylvania State University and Rose McDermott of Brown University, shows, they affect a person’s views of the world almost as much as his circumstances do, and far more than many social scientists have been willing, until recently, to admit.
http://www.economist.com/node/21564191
I'm not sure this link will stay active but the paper can be found here.
I find it hard to believe - although I will accept that nature can affect character to a degree, my water tells me that it is much more likely that nurture and experience of life will affect one's political views with the crossover being whether one is naturally concerned for one's fellow man, or a natural tight a**e.
-
I'll grant you that; winter 1962-63 is the third coldest since Manley data from 1658 I think it started, so yes unique, not sure which is the second coldest winter, living through the 3rd coldest will do me until the grim reaper taps me on the shoulder thank you very much!
I am very much looking forward to a repeat performance before I pop my clogs - there have been a number of occasions in the past which showed prospects only to be thwarted by that dreaded Atlantic Ocean.
I can't really include 1947 because I was too young to remember that but the older ones made lots of comparisons once '63 was well under way - by them were't days
-
I think the problem is that we can make all the measurements we like at this time of year but the best we can do is to make an educated guess at probabilities and quite often then Mother Nature throughs a spanner in the works and introduces something not taken into account.
The feeling in my water is that it will be an average winter but then most winters are average anyway - however I can confidently predict that if you do wish to see a layer of white in December, get in an aircraft during daylight hours, climb through the only layer of cloud on the day, a layer of strata cumulus, then look down and voila, a layer of white and if you climb high enough the temperature will drop below freezing
-
From my common sense and only basic scientific point of view the past records gleaned from ice cores etc would indicate that we are in an interglacial period and that one day the ice age will return and a colder earth than ours is today appears to have been the 'normal state' over the past 100,000,000 years, though there have been other times when it has been much warmer.
Though interstella plasma will have some effect on our sun, as does everything else in the universe i.e. our galaxy is bound to affect our sun and other galaxies are bound to affect our galaxy, I would have thought that the energy involved would have been minute when compared with the sun's huge fusion engine, so I would suggest that the external energy is little more than a trigger mechanism.
As to the causes of the ice ages I don't think anybody really knows and the best guess is a combination of variations of the earth's orbit around the sun, the angle of its axis which alters slightly over time, the movements of land masses, variations in ocean currents and from time to time extensive volcanic activity can reduce the level of heat received by producing a layer of ash in the upper atmosphere.
Certainly in the UK winters and summers appear cooler over the last few years than what they were but other areas have experienced record temperatures but a lot of this appears to be due to the devious deviations of the jet streams.
-
With Nadine's daughter coming up from the latitudes of southern Spain, why has it been so damned cold here today?
-
There are so many unanswered questions but who knows what is round the corner - bring back a man from just a 100 years ago and our modern world would be absolutely awe inspiring to him - now we reached the stage where different discoveries are being made exponentially it seems. It is almost impossible to visualise how the world would be another 100 years hence and no doubt further discoveries would awe us, should we live that long.
-
I still can't get my head around this video shot 2 years ago in China.
http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnszlJC8iGs
It gives the impression that a giant snowball with a rocky solid centre enters the atmopshere - the ice is vapourising then condensing causing the cylindrical tapering shape at the beginning then as this is used up we are left with rocky core - or otherwise it is a very clever piece of computer graphics.
-
And guess who came across a solitary Swift over his house on 3rd September, a rather late one by all accounts.
What a shame - his mummy and daddy left without him.
-
I don't think black holes necessarily lead to other dimensions universes, etc etc, but I do believe that such belief that Black Holes might lead to such things is due to our lack of understanding of what is inside a black hole. Naturally with anything we don't understand, we will put forward the most fantasical, amazing theory to comfort ourselves. However perhaps I'm wrong and black holes are portals to other dimensions (though I doubt it).
On terra firma however, it would appear Black Holes have a job to do, and that job is to gather all the energy, to potentially restart other solar systems, through formation of successive stars (as they are re-cyclical).
If, however, strong theory, m-theory, was proven to be right, I suspect the outcome of that would be unchartered. If such a theory is proven then other things that we thought were complete hokum, could be associated with it.. that discovery would be daunting for man kind.
Alas I don't think we'll find it, and I am pretty sceptical about that.
Black Holes are vital for our well-being though it seems..
ps: a theory is something that hasn't been tested, but would not violate any laws or limits of physics, so obvious m-theory for example, works in perfect harmony with the maths describing the laws of physics, but is very difficult to prove..
I keep an open mind on it all, though one thing is for certain and that is that we do not really know very much at all and there is so much more to discover - I just hope I can come back when some of these questions are being answered - ithis would be really fascinating.
-
Somehow still together, 5 years last week!
Cheers for the suggestions, 'tis handy timing actually. It's her first day back in college today, so perhaps a nosey round a few wine isles might be in order!
So it's serious then - congratulations and all the best for the future - if you can't find those specific names look for things like vin de Paye d'Oc, vin d'Aude, or vin d'Herault
The synoptic chart for 24 October 2011
in Historic Weather
Posted · Edited by mike Meehan
Can't remember the weather on 24.10 2011, though it is her birthday
but generally the last two weeks of October were merde in the south of France with quite a but of LP in the Med and on the way home at the beginning of Nov lots of the vinyards prior to reaching the Massif were flooded.
This year, it is quite different, virtually no cloud and calm with a temp of 23C inland and 20C on the coast where spent an agreeable afternoon.