MattH

I somewhat reluctantly share this screenshot of a part of the weekly long-range analysis I do for work, to essentially 'shut up' those almost ridiculing the outlook but nothing ever changes with forums, social media and the like, so no surprises. That being said, there's definitely a requirement to counterbalance some of the daft comments in here so far this morning. To say, generically 'LRF have and will be wrong' is wrong in itself, which is both comical and ironic. This a very broad brush statement with no clarification on what LRFs have been looked at, I know mine haven't been incorrect as we mid-July approach, even though there has been an underestimation for the longevity of the more cyclonic spell, this has already been flagged in the last week or so. The return of the GSDM data through mid-to-late June created much better clarity on the way things were going, as the below screenshot highlights, which I produced on the 25th of June, so comfortably over 2 weeks ago now. Take particular note of my final paragraph... For those asking why the UKMO outlooks often change and are incorrect, that is simply because they are 'model monkeys' and primarily use blended products that include the EC Monthly, MOGREPS and GloSea. Granted still a very powerful forecasting tool and set of NWP products. They do analyse teleconnections, but the usual ones only, NAO, MJO, et al and when these are nullified, as is often the case through the summer period as compared with winter, it is then back to the default of going with what NWP shows. Clearly, this doesn't always tell the whole story and why the GSDM should always be factored into gauging longer-term trends and transitions. The science being it is very sound indeed and, as I alluded to yesterday, on numerous occasions has pre-empted NWP through the week 2 and 3 period over the years I've been studying it and using it. As I say nothing changes on social media and forums, but when you have a decent platform like Netweather and the model thread, some users perhaps just need to have a rethink of what they want to say before the fingers start typing. Cheers, Matt.

Morning. A general update. While the overall evolution and predictions haven't changed, we are now starting to see the process that has been long predicted, in terms of the GSDM, starting to come to fruition. As usual, the RMM (MJO plots) are not telling the whole story at the moment, but analysis of observed OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) is finally highlighting the onset of the expected MJO activity that will help to alter the upstream, Pacific pattern in association with the usual developments and evolution as part of the GSDM, again as discussed by Tamara and others in recent weeks. Some of the key plots that stand out are as follows... No need to get bogged down by some of the plots, but note the area of green lines across the Maritimes and W Pacific on the 09Jul23 plot, with arrows extending outwards from the middle of this region. This indicates outflow, surface convergence and upper-level divergence in association with increased organisation of convective activity. Similarly, the -ve (blue) values around 120E to 160E of note on the analysed 10Jul23 plot, while the ever-reliable EWP zonal harmonics plot, shows a similar short-term pattern and evolution with the -ve VP200 signal extended westwards over the next week or so. The GSDM data remains dead, for now, but I fully expect all the usual plots to kick into life over the next week, including the tendency and frictional torque plots, to name a few as we see this long-predicted pattern play out. NWP is still resolute in maintaining the NW European trough, especially recent runs of the EC Monthly, right into August, despite the above consistent AAM prediction, but I would completely bet against the cyclonic evolution lasting as long as is being suggested by the majority of NWP, at the moment. This will be yet another fascinating test of the usefulness and importance of not taking NWP at face value, but also factoring in the developments of the GSDM and how those processes, at times, can certainly lead the models and provide an alternative outcome and suggestion. In my relatively short time of studying and using the GSDM operationally for Long Range Forecast for work purposes, I have certainly seen it provide better clarity than NWP at times and with then NWP playing catchup as time progresses and I fully expect that to be the case this time around as well. Granted, the timing of this process has been the 'issue' this time around, but so what, that's the nature of the weather. Overall, still expect changes before month's end, it could well end up being a summer that evolves with a good start, poor middle and good end. A decent August, overall, is long-overdue, there have been some very poor ends to summers in recent years, but the upcoming AAM evolution could well tip the balance in favour of a decent spell, the perfect time for the summer holidays and after further cyclonic short-term weather would be welcomed by many as late summer quickly approaches. Cheers, Matt. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4886874

Morning. A general update. While the overall evolution and predictions haven't changed, we are now starting to see the process that has been long predicted, in terms of the GSDM, starting to come to fruition. As usual, the RMM (MJO plots) are not telling the whole story at the moment, but analysis of observed OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) is finally highlighting the onset of the expected MJO activity that will help to alter the upstream, Pacific pattern in association with the usual developments and evolution as part of the GSDM, again as discussed by Tamara and others in recent weeks. Some of the key plots that stand out are as follows... No need to get bogged down by some of the plots, but note the area of green lines across the Maritimes and W Pacific on the 09Jul23 plot, with arrows extending outwards from the middle of this region. This indicates outflow, surface convergence and upper-level divergence in association with increased organisation of convective activity. Similarly, the -ve (blue) values around 120E to 160E of note on the analysed 10Jul23 plot, while the ever-reliable EWP zonal harmonics plot, shows a similar short-term pattern and evolution with the -ve VP200 signal extended westwards over the next week or so. The GSDM data remains dead, for now, but I fully expect all the usual plots to kick into life over the next week, including the tendency and frictional torque plots, to name a few as we see this long-predicted pattern play out. NWP is still resolute in maintaining the NW European trough, especially recent runs of the EC Monthly, right into August, despite the above consistent AAM prediction, but I would completely bet against the cyclonic evolution lasting as long as is being suggested by the majority of NWP, at the moment. This will be yet another fascinating test of the usefulness and importance of not taking NWP at face value, but also factoring in the developments of the GSDM and how those processes, at times, can certainly lead the models and provide an alternative outcome and suggestion. In my relatively short time of studying and using the GSDM operationally for Long Range Forecast for work purposes, I have certainly seen it provide better clarity than NWP at times and with then NWP playing catchup as time progresses and I fully expect that to be the case this time around as well. Granted, the timing of this process has been the 'issue' this time around, but so what, that's the nature of the weather. Overall, still expect changes before month's end, it could well end up being a summer that evolves with a good start, poor middle and good end. A decent August, overall, is long-overdue, there have been some very poor ends to summers in recent years, but the upcoming AAM evolution could well tip the balance in favour of a decent spell, the perfect time for the summer holidays and after further cyclonic short-term weather would be welcomed by many as late summer quickly approaches. Cheers, Matt.

Just as a quick addition to earlier, 00Z GEFS highlighting the arrival of a -ve VP200 signature now in the near future, with an associated WWB towards mid-month. All eyes are on observed OLR and wind flow patterns over the Maritimes and W Pacific in the coming days, but that -ve tendency plot may soon start to become more +ve...Hang on in there summer lovers! Cheers, Matt.

The overall outlook hasn't changed but it is, clearly, timing that has and continues to be the troublesome aspect of the forecast for any potential, or expected/predicted changes, deeper into July. Visually what plot stands out and is very telling of the situation right now is the EC46 AAM forecast graphic. The key area of interest here is how the model (and others) have struggled to grasp the more obvious fall in AAM in the short-term, with a clear split in recent model runs over the early July evolution. This highlights the timing issue as clearly AAM, through the usual processes, has fallen or been able to fall away more significantly and, importantly, for longer than was expected. The result, the persistent cyclonic regime... However, equally as important is the long-standing prediction for a recovery in AAM as July progresses and this aspect of the forecast remains unchanged and consistent, so patience is still urged for those wanting summer to return and I fully believe it will. Another way to look at this signal is through the usual VP200 anomalies as well. Obviously there are numerous other data sources that need to be looked at to gauge this prediction, including current and observed OLR plots, for example, but that's just part of the forecasting process to verify whether NWP is on to something with this signal. From experience with this data mind, I would put money on this rise AAM occurring, eventually. For now though there is little evidence for this occuring in the immediate time-frame and just using the tendency plot to highlight this, it remains a very stagnant AAM pattern across the N Hem at the moment, but with plenty of 'goings on' in the S Hem linked to thier winter or course. As recent posts have suggested though and as Tamara has well documented too, a change is still in the cards, not a case of 'if' but a case of 'when' still if you ask me. Yes, the mid-July change may well not happen now, but with the school holidays looming around the 24th onwards, a usual comical period of the summer when the proverbial 'wheels come off', this year could well be the opposite and more summer-like patterns return just at the right time. Prior, however and it's a text-book summer trough pattern that will dominate at least until mid-July, but I still fully believe that this will not end up evolving like a 2007/2012 scenario. Plenty of summer left for those longing for higher MSLP to return, but extra patience is required and this just highlights how forecasts, both short and long-term can and have to evolve and be modified, at times, due to mother nature. Cheers, Matt. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4883515

The overall outlook hasn't changed but it is, clearly, timing that has and continues to be the troublesome aspect of the forecast for any potential, or expected/predicted changes, deeper into July. Visually what plot stands out and is very telling of the situation right now is the EC46 AAM forecast graphic. The key area of interest here is how the model (and others) have struggled to grasp the more obvious fall in AAM in the short-term, with a clear split in recent model runs over the early July evolution. This highlights the timing issue as clearly AAM, through the usual processes, has fallen or been able to fall away more significantly and, importantly, for longer than was expected. The result, the persistent cyclonic regime... However, equally as important is the long-standing prediction for a recovery in AAM as July progresses and this aspect of the forecast remains unchanged and consistent, so patience is still urged for those wanting summer to return and I fully believe it will. Another way to look at this signal is through the usual VP200 anomalies as well. Obviously there are numerous other data sources that need to be looked at to gauge this prediction, including current and observed OLR plots, for example, but that's just part of the forecasting process to verify whether NWP is on to something with this signal. From experience with this data mind, I would put money on this rise AAM occurring, eventually. For now though there is little evidence for this occuring in the immediate time-frame and just using the tendency plot to highlight this, it remains a very stagnant AAM pattern across the N Hem at the moment, but with plenty of 'goings on' in the S Hem linked to thier winter or course. As recent posts have suggested though and as Tamara has well documented too, a change is still in the cards, not a case of 'if' but a case of 'when' still if you ask me. Yes, the mid-July change may well not happen now, but with the school holidays looming around the 24th onwards, a usual comical period of the summer when the proverbial 'wheels come off', this year could well be the opposite and more summer-like patterns return just at the right time. Prior, however and it's a text-book summer trough pattern that will dominate at least until mid-July, but I still fully believe that this will not end up evolving like a 2007/2012 scenario. Plenty of summer left for those longing for higher MSLP to return, but extra patience is required and this just highlights how forecasts, both short and long-term can and have to evolve and be modified, at times, due to mother nature. Cheers, Matt.

Morning. Personally, it will take time to break out of the more cyclonic pattern. As is often the case at this time of year, the progression of the long-wave patterns is obviously far slower than it is during winter and the troughed pattern will take time to move. We can see how the pattern, compared with May and much of June, has evolved over the last week from the GSDM data. Note how there is a poleward progression of W'ly momentum, both on the tendency plot, but also now a weak W'ly anom can just be seen at circa 50N, this in complete contrast to what was in evidence through much of May and into June. We can (just about, seeing the latest analysis date is 28th June) see this on the composite anoms as well, including the 300mb zonal wind and the associated 500mb heights between the 25th and the 28th of June. Note the increase in zonal flow circa 50N, this is in complete contrast to previous weeks, while the 500mb geo height anom obviously compliments the zonal wind anom. However, the good news, as I and others have said for some time, is this is not 2007, nor is it a 2012 summer, in terms of the broader background signals, so please do ignore those who just do nothing to this particular thread apart from to wind people up. There remains clear evidence for another MJO event to make an appearance through July, or, at a minimum a CCKW. This is a persistent forecast, not just from the EC46, but other data as well. As can also be seen the latest EC46 AAM forecast remains consistent for another marked +GLAAM event deeper into July. The timing of this is the primary uncertainty, but what should play out is that the troughed pattern over NW Europe, should back west, eventually, allow for higher heights to build over more central and western areas of Europe. Personally, I don't think this will happen within the opening week of July, most probably between the 10th and 14th onwards and in what could well end up being a distinct month of two halves. Cheers, Matt. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4880413

Morning. Personally, it will take time to break out of the more cyclonic pattern. As is often the case at this time of year, the progression of the long-wave patterns is obviously far slower than it is during winter and the troughed pattern will take time to move. We can see how the pattern, compared with May and much of June, has evolved over the last week from the GSDM data. Note how there is a poleward progression of W'ly momentum, both on the tendency plot, but also now a weak W'ly anom can just be seen at circa 50N, this in complete contrast to what was in evidence through much of May and into June. We can (just about, seeing the latest analysis date is 28th June) see this on the composite anoms as well, including the 300mb zonal wind and the associated 500mb heights between the 25th and the 28th of June. Note the increase in zonal flow circa 50N, this is in complete contrast to previous weeks, while the 500mb geo height anom obviously compliments the zonal wind anom. However, the good news, as I and others have said for some time, is this is not 2007, nor is it a 2012 summer, in terms of the broader background signals, so please do ignore those who just do nothing to this particular thread apart from to wind people up. There remains clear evidence for another MJO event to make an appearance through July, or, at a minimum a CCKW. This is a persistent forecast, not just from the EC46, but other data as well. As can also be seen the latest EC46 AAM forecast remains consistent for another marked +GLAAM event deeper into July. The timing of this is the primary uncertainty, but what should play out is that the troughed pattern over NW Europe, should back west, eventually, allow for higher heights to build over more central and western areas of Europe. Personally, I don't think this will happen within the opening week of July, most probably between the 10th and 14th onwards and in what could well end up being a distinct month of two halves. Cheers, Matt.

The change ahead does seem to be at the more extreme end of the spectrum for what was expected through late June and July. However, does this mean we are heading down one of "those" summers where the last 4-6 weeks was summer? - I don't think it is, not this year. We are not in a La Nina/eQBO summer combo like some of the worst summers can be, but that is just one piece of thr jigsaw of course. One added caveat here mind is AGW, the unknown and potential influences that are difficult to gauge. Look at the highly unusual global SST patterns currently, for a starters. However, if we look at the AAM profile it comes as absolutely no surprise why the last 4-6 weeks have been as they have been - anticyclonic - due to a huge AAM surge and dominant E'ly AAM anoms through the mid-lats throughout May and into June too. However, note of late those westerly anomalies have been propagating to higher latitudes while the E'ly anomalies have weakened. Despite a broader +GLAAM atmospheric profile you will still get 'rises and falls' within that general dominant pattern and that is seemingly what we are seeing now, highlighted as well by the GWO evolution. Another MJO/-VP200 evolution does seem likely to evolve yet again into July as exampled by the latest EC46 and with it another upstream pattern change. So while it's a poor outlook for now, especislly after what we have been used to in recent weeks, a further re-shuffle of the pattern, out of the short term cyclonic pattern in the short term, is likely to follow, IMO, deeper into July with a return to summer synoptics and a reduction in the influence of a more W'ly, Atlantic pattern. Cheers, Matt Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4876472

The change ahead does seem to be at the more extreme end of the spectrum for what was expected through late June and July. However, does this mean we are heading down one of "those" summers where the last 4-6 weeks was summer? - I don't think it is, not this year. We are not in a La Nina/eQBO summer combo like some of the worst summers can be, but that is just one piece of thr jigsaw of course. One added caveat here mind is AGW, the unknown and potential influences that are difficult to gauge. Look at the highly unusual global SST patterns currently, for a starters. However, if we look at the AAM profile it comes as absolutely no surprise why the last 4-6 weeks have been as they have been - anticyclonic - due to a huge AAM surge and dominant E'ly AAM anoms through the mid-lats throughout May and into June too. However, note of late those westerly anomalies have been propagating to higher latitudes while the E'ly anomalies have weakened. Despite a broader +GLAAM atmospheric profile you will still get 'rises and falls' within that general dominant pattern and that is seemingly what we are seeing now, highlighted as well by the GWO evolution. Another MJO/-VP200 evolution does seem likely to evolve yet again into July as exampled by the latest EC46 and with it another upstream pattern change. So while it's a poor outlook for now, especislly after what we have been used to in recent weeks, a further re-shuffle of the pattern, out of the short term cyclonic pattern in the short term, is likely to follow, IMO, deeper into July with a return to summer synoptics and a reduction in the influence of a more W'ly, Atlantic pattern. Cheers, Matt

It will be interesting to see how the patterns will evolve through the rest of June, because as forecasters are finding out now, what was looking to be a dry, sunny and very warm weekend is now increasingly convective, muddying the waters somewhat, from a retail perspective in particular (who want the dry, sunny, hot combo). Clearly, this is or will be the first very warm and humid spell of the season from Friday onwards as the theta-w plume heads northwards. Some places are likely to see some significant TS as things stand and certainly something to keep an eye on... In terms of recent discussions on the MJO, it is definitely interesting to see an increasingly 'strong' -ve VP200 signature again through the Maritimes and W Pacific over the next 10-14 days. The MJO has returned to the W Hem, and will likely restrengthen through the I/O, short-term and then on into the Maritimes thereafter. As usual, RMM plots kill off the MJO far quicker than is likely to be the case, and a more coherent progression into the Pacific is likely through the final third, or so, of June, this has been well-advertised mind for some time, then continuing into early July. The latest EC46 is noteworthy, especially the AAM prediction which goes off the scale within the next 10 to 20 days or so, obviously linked to the -VP200 anom and the associated WWB. There was always a window of opportunity for a more troughed pattern to develop towards mid-June, this is certainly a long-term prediction and we can see that now in more short-term NWP, with MSLP draining away, highlighting a more convective outlook and finally breaking us out of the resolute, anticyclonic pattern that has dominated for the last few weeks, or will have done by the time we get to the end of this week. As mentioned at the beginning it'll be interesting to see how the pattern then reshuffles further down the line, as the likely increasingly significant -VP200/WWB event will not only push us more towards El Nino but likely tip the balance in favour of a more Atlantic trough and downstream ridge pattern. Don't forget that jet extension is often associated with suppressed trade winds and a WWB, that can influence and alter the downstream pattern, again, particularly at this time of year, to me that would likely bring us into a pattern of European heights, with Atlantic troughs and all the 'fun and games' that may bring as we approach and move beyond the solstice. Cheers, Matt. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4862667

It will be interesting to see how the patterns will evolve through the rest of June, because as forecasters are finding out now, what was looking to be a dry, sunny and very warm weekend is now increasingly convective, muddying the waters somewhat, from a retail perspective in particular (who want the dry, sunny, hot combo). Clearly, this is or will be the first very warm and humid spell of the season from Friday onwards as the theta-w plume heads northwards. Some places are likely to see some significant TS as things stand and certainly something to keep an eye on... In terms of recent discussions on the MJO, it is definitely interesting to see an increasingly 'strong' -ve VP200 signature again through the Maritimes and W Pacific over the next 10-14 days. The MJO has returned to the W Hem, and will likely restrengthen through the I/O, short-term and then on into the Maritimes thereafter. As usual, RMM plots kill off the MJO far quicker than is likely to be the case, and a more coherent progression into the Pacific is likely through the final third, or so, of June, this has been well-advertised mind for some time, then continuing into early July. The latest EC46 is noteworthy, especially the AAM prediction which goes off the scale within the next 10 to 20 days or so, obviously linked to the -VP200 anom and the associated WWB. There was always a window of opportunity for a more troughed pattern to develop towards mid-June, this is certainly a long-term prediction and we can see that now in more short-term NWP, with MSLP draining away, highlighting a more convective outlook and finally breaking us out of the resolute, anticyclonic pattern that has dominated for the last few weeks, or will have done by the time we get to the end of this week. As mentioned at the beginning it'll be interesting to see how the pattern then reshuffles further down the line, as the likely increasingly significant -VP200/WWB event will not only push us more towards El Nino but likely tip the balance in favour of a more Atlantic trough and downstream ridge pattern. Don't forget that jet extension is often associated with suppressed trade winds and a WWB, that can influence and alter the downstream pattern, again, particularly at this time of year, to me that would likely bring us into a pattern of European heights, with Atlantic troughs and all the 'fun and games' that may bring as we approach and move beyond the solstice. Cheers, Matt.

Probably best just to rename this thread to 'General Weather - Moans, Ramps and Chat' - There'll never be 'perfect' weather for us all... Personally, here on the W Pennines, this spell has been welcomed more than anything after such a 'long' spring. Warmth, without the heat and humidity of July and August, the cool evenings to soothe the sunburn and knowing one can get a good night's kip, ahead of another useful dry day with more 'strong' sunshine and pleasant warmth. There is plenty of time for the days of Tmax of 25C to 30C, with dew points in the high teens, which, unless you really like that kind of thing, are no good to anybody, unless you like to sweat. Whether high summer, mid-winter or everything in between the British Isles will ALWAYS bring variation and regional differences that some will simply not like. We are surrounded by oceans, at a latitude that despite the approaching solstice will still bring a chilly feel, but for those in the sunshine know long, sunny days and daylight are a certainty, as we are getting now without needing heat and humidity. Just remember, might be grim now, where you are, but it won't always be....... Matt.

The Atlantic ridge signal could be related to the expected spike in the PNA pattern looking ahead, which is set to become quite significant, this all links in with an Aluetian low pattern, W USA Ridge, E USA trough and downstream of that an Atlantic ridge, this links into the period when the UK may well then see more of a trough pattern as we approach the mid-June period. Clearly, there is still some evidence for a -ve NAO as well. To what extent any troughed pattern becomes established is the key uncertainty and for how long, but the evidence is clearly stacked now towards another significant rise in AAM, from a "low" point of approx +0.5sd currently, we are already seeing a jet extension pattern modelled as well (see below GEFS example). This is highlighted well by the overnight EC46 and how the trend is, in particular, as June progresses, while the VP200 anom pattern is also indicative of a Pacific that will see further -ve VP200 anomalies, without any active MJO event. In terms of the next significant MJO event, then the consistent signal here is for a likely event through the end of June and into early July, not before. We can see this consistently within the CFSv2 plot (highlighted by the solid red lines) and also the ever-useful and reliable EWP plot as well. It will be very interesting to keep tabs on this event as it would be arriving during the mid-summer period and could well have some significant 'say' as to how the patterns evolve through July and also August as well. From what I envisage, it could push the UK into a very warm or hot summer pattern during the second half of July, but all are very open for discussion at that time frame. Also as has been discussed for some time, the current anticyclonic signal was discovered back in mid-April, the recent fall in AAM and +ve PNA trend does support a pattern where the current NW European high ends up more to the W or NW, with a troughed pattern over the British Isles, leading to a more convective interval, but not a 'full blown' cyclonic period, and with then support for another AAM spike as June progresses, allowing for a reset of the pattern, but with the risk that unlike currently, the main CoG of the high is more over or to the east of the British Isles, with a trough to the W or SW. Could that then become the primary default pattern for much of the summer period (?) time will tell, as I do think there is still scope as well for northern blocking at times this summer, not necessarily just a European high, but one long-term event that will need watching is the amplitude and influence of this MJO event that should arrive later June and into July. Cheers, Matt. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4859726

The Atlantic ridge signal could be related to the expected spike in the PNA pattern looking ahead, which is set to become quite significant, this all links in with an Aluetian low pattern, W USA Ridge, E USA trough and downstream of that an Atlantic ridge, this links into the period when the UK may well then see more of a trough pattern as we approach the mid-June period. Clearly, there is still some evidence for a -ve NAO as well. To what extent any troughed pattern becomes established is the key uncertainty and for how long, but the evidence is clearly stacked now towards another significant rise in AAM, from a "low" point of approx +0.5sd currently, we are already seeing a jet extension pattern modelled as well (see below GEFS example). This is highlighted well by the overnight EC46 and how the trend is, in particular, as June progresses, while the VP200 anom pattern is also indicative of a Pacific that will see further -ve VP200 anomalies, without any active MJO event. In terms of the next significant MJO event, then the consistent signal here is for a likely event through the end of June and into early July, not before. We can see this consistently within the CFSv2 plot (highlighted by the solid red lines) and also the ever-useful and reliable EWP plot as well. It will be very interesting to keep tabs on this event as it would be arriving during the mid-summer period and could well have some significant 'say' as to how the patterns evolve through July and also August as well. From what I envisage, it could push the UK into a very warm or hot summer pattern during the second half of July, but all are very open for discussion at that time frame. Also as has been discussed for some time, the current anticyclonic signal was discovered back in mid-April, the recent fall in AAM and +ve PNA trend does support a pattern where the current NW European high ends up more to the W or NW, with a troughed pattern over the British Isles, leading to a more convective interval, but not a 'full blown' cyclonic period, and with then support for another AAM spike as June progresses, allowing for a reset of the pattern, but with the risk that unlike currently, the main CoG of the high is more over or to the east of the British Isles, with a trough to the W or SW. Could that then become the primary default pattern for much of the summer period (?) time will tell, as I do think there is still scope as well for northern blocking at times this summer, not necessarily just a European high, but one long-term event that will need watching is the amplitude and influence of this MJO event that should arrive later June and into July. Cheers, Matt.

Very pleasant few weeks ahead, but watch out for an early June change...

Hi @Tamara. Just an FYI, but I was 'speaking' with David (Gold) yesterday and he confirmed it is a big problem, linked to IP routing issues which he is trying to sort out. However, he also followed this up by stating that it "probably won't come back unless we completely rebuild on a new cloud account", while "Victor (Gensini) has been working for a long time on a new setup, with some input from me and Klaus, but we wanted to run both side by side for a long time to compare" Essentially, whatever happened IT-wise doesn't look like it'll get resolved soon and, for now at least, the GSDM page is dead in the water, which is clearly a sad loss for those with an interest. One can only hope that Victor comes up with another layout and platform because I get the feeling that given the new cloud account issue, David won't get his back up and running now and will wait for Victor to set his new layout, or whatever it is, up instead. As for the forecast and outlook, the current and upcoming more anticyclonic spell has been well advertised and discussed for some time and is certainly a good example of the usefulness of the GSDM, when used in the correct way. NWP was flopping around a week or two back, while the long-term prediction was steadfast as May progressed. This signal was picked up on back in mid-April as part of internal discussions and forecasts for work, quick screen grab of a section of a doc highlights well, out of interest... Looking ahead and your commentary about a potential troughed pattern to the W and SW of the British Isles is what the majority of the seasonal models predict for June, these were recently reviewed, again, for work, from the Copernicus website. It'll be an interesting summer to keep tabs on this year as the focus will clearly be on whether another 40C heatwave can occur again, especially seeing most, if not all data continue to suggest that Continental Western Europe will see significant +ve temperature anomalies once again. The combination of the El Nino and the -PDO is clearly a conflict, while the eQBO may have some say, seasonal models also do suggest that any blocking could be at a higher latitude than what many may want to see. I certainly don't see this summer being a 2018 repeat, for example, and still fully expect it to be a far more typically British one, characterised by the usual mixture and frenzy of a week or two of heat, humidity and thunderstorms, but then likely cooler, cyclonic refreshment from off the Atlantic, but, as ever, time will tell. Cheers, Matt. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4855735

Hi @Tamara. Just an FYI, but I was 'speaking' with David (Gold) yesterday and he confirmed it is a big problem, linked to IP routing issues which he is trying to sort out. However, he also followed this up by stating that it "probably won't come back unless we completely rebuild on a new cloud account", while "Victor (Gensini) has been working for a long time on a new setup, with some input from me and Klaus, but we wanted to run both side by side for a long time to compare" Essentially, whatever happened IT-wise doesn't look like it'll get resolved soon and, for now at least, the GSDM page is dead in the water, which is clearly a sad loss for those with an interest. One can only hope that Victor comes up with another layout and platform because I get the feeling that given the new cloud account issue, David won't get his back up and running now and will wait for Victor to set his new layout, or whatever it is, up instead. As for the forecast and outlook, the current and upcoming more anticyclonic spell has been well advertised and discussed for some time and is certainly a good example of the usefulness of the GSDM, when used in the correct way. NWP was flopping around a week or two back, while the long-term prediction was steadfast as May progressed. This signal was picked up on back in mid-April as part of internal discussions and forecasts for work, quick screen grab of a section of a doc highlights well, out of interest... Looking ahead and your commentary about a potential troughed pattern to the W and SW of the British Isles is what the majority of the seasonal models predict for June, these were recently reviewed, again, for work, from the Copernicus website. It'll be an interesting summer to keep tabs on this year as the focus will clearly be on whether another 40C heatwave can occur again, especially seeing most, if not all data continue to suggest that Continental Western Europe will see significant +ve temperature anomalies once again. The combination of the El Nino and the -PDO is clearly a conflict, while the eQBO may have some say, seasonal models also do suggest that any blocking could be at a higher latitude than what many may want to see. I certainly don't see this summer being a 2018 repeat, for example, and still fully expect it to be a far more typically British one, characterised by the usual mixture and frenzy of a week or two of heat, humidity and thunderstorms, but then likely cooler, cyclonic refreshment from off the Atlantic, but, as ever, time will tell. Cheers, Matt.

Hi Mike. Just a quick one, but yes, it is interesting to see GloSea come up with that solution because that is what the May EC Seasonal has shifted to as well, which you no doubt have seen. In recent months it has certainly been the ECMWF Seasonal that has been the most significant in terms of a blocking high over NW Europe, almost similar to 2018, but I've never fancied that solution, so the decline of any key +ve 500mb height and MSLP anom more to the N and NE, along with evidence for lower than usual pressure to the SW, is definitely of interest. While we do always get thunderstorms each summer, there has definitely been a lack of what I would call a more 'typical' British Isles summer, characterised by the usual madness surrounding one week of heat, and humidity for it then to all end with thunderstorms and the following week the BBQ's and deck chairs are pushed to one side for some time. This is what I was implying in the earlier message. It would certainly make for an interesting summer, in terms of actual weather conditions and not just all about focus on heat records. Clearly, time is nearly up for any summer forecasts, but the full seasonal updates mid-month, on Copernicus, could be telling, especially if, unlike in recent months, there is something of a better agreement between all the models for this broader pattern, because up to April, there has been little or no consistency over much apart from yet another summer of above average temperatures. Cheers, regards. Matt.

Despite the usual doom and gloom posts in the model thread, even though NWP hasn't been showing anything like as such for a good few days, the northeastward extension of the Azores high is clearly gaining traction, something which has been long predicted as a possibility. The early indications for the May MJO passage and +GLAAM spike were there back in mid-April. I have a forecast documentation here that I produced on the 18th of April, for work, alluding to that possibility... NWP has been flipping and flopping around for much of this week but has now finally settled down with regard to next week and the build of pressure. Interestingly, one of the best models to capture this in recent days has been the GEM, the worst the ECMWF, make of that as you will. For those with an eye for the GSDM we continue to 'fly blind' by the lack of actual observed GSDM data, but generally speaking you can still predict some outcomes and evolutions based on other data and what is actually going on. Using the likes of the ECM and GFS data AAM is now approximately at +2sd , the key thing looking forward is the persistent forecast (from EC46 at least) for GLAAM to remain in positive territory, likely leading to a continued repeating pattern whereby ridging NE towards NW Europe will occur but with potential trough disruption events at times. As the coming days and weeks progress clearly temperatures will naturally rise anyway, despite the cooler start to next week. If we link this into the EC Monthly and the VP200 forecast looking ahead, we can see a pattern that is far more Nino, than Nina-like, with often -ve VP200 anoms over the Pacific, while the low frequency standing wave setups over the I/O. The combination of a likely El Nino and a possible +ve IOD this summer is, however, an interesting one and there is currently a lot of focus on how these two will interact with each other, how the SST's will evolve over the Pacific and just how significant the El Nino will become. I still believe/expected/predict that the upcoming summer will see rather typical British-like modulations of heat, humidity and thunderstorms, with cooler, cyclonic Atlantic incursions. How long each setup lasts obviously depends on short-term synoptics and how slow-moving the broader Rossby wave regimes are. We all know both can become locked in for quite long periods of time in the summer. One could argue this covers all angles, which in a way I guess it does, but a summer like 2018, seems unlikely, while a complete disaster like 2012, is unlikely either, as mentioned previously we aren't progressing into this summer with a -GLAAM trend and with an eQBO combination, often leading to some of the worst summers with a resolute NW European trough. Stripping it right back and it has been a pleasing watch to see NWP slowly evolve towards a long-term prediction. A heatwave, certainly not, but a welcomed spell of late spring weather is most certainly on the horizon, despite what some would have you think here... Cheers, Matt Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4853178

Despite the usual doom and gloom posts in the model thread, even though NWP hasn't been showing anything like as such for a good few days, the northeastward extension of the Azores high is clearly gaining traction, something which has been long predicted as a possibility. The early indications for the May MJO passage and +GLAAM spike were there back in mid-April. I have a forecast documentation here that I produced on the 18th of April, for work, alluding to that possibility... NWP has been flipping and flopping around for much of this week but has now finally settled down with regard to next week and the build of pressure. Interestingly, one of the best models to capture this in recent days has been the GEM, the worst the ECMWF, make of that as you will. For those with an eye for the GSDM we continue to 'fly blind' by the lack of actual observed GSDM data, but generally speaking you can still predict some outcomes and evolutions based on other data and what is actually going on. Using the likes of the ECM and GFS data AAM is now approximately at +2sd , the key thing looking forward is the persistent forecast (from EC46 at least) for GLAAM to remain in positive territory, likely leading to a continued repeating pattern whereby ridging NE towards NW Europe will occur but with potential trough disruption events at times. As the coming days and weeks progress clearly temperatures will naturally rise anyway, despite the cooler start to next week. If we link this into the EC Monthly and the VP200 forecast looking ahead, we can see a pattern that is far more Nino, than Nina-like, with often -ve VP200 anoms over the Pacific, while the low frequency standing wave setups over the I/O. The combination of a likely El Nino and a possible +ve IOD this summer is, however, an interesting one and there is currently a lot of focus on how these two will interact with each other, how the SST's will evolve over the Pacific and just how significant the El Nino will become. I still believe/expected/predict that the upcoming summer will see rather typical British-like modulations of heat, humidity and thunderstorms, with cooler, cyclonic Atlantic incursions. How long each setup lasts obviously depends on short-term synoptics and how slow-moving the broader Rossby wave regimes are. We all know both can become locked in for quite long periods of time in the summer. One could argue this covers all angles, which in a way I guess it does, but a summer like 2018, seems unlikely, while a complete disaster like 2012, is unlikely either, as mentioned previously we aren't progressing into this summer with a -GLAAM trend and with an eQBO combination, often leading to some of the worst summers with a resolute NW European trough. Stripping it right back and it has been a pleasing watch to see NWP slowly evolve towards a long-term prediction. A heatwave, certainly not, but a welcomed spell of late spring weather is most certainly on the horizon, despite what some would have you think here... Cheers, Matt

Steady as she goes, following on from comments and discussions yesterday, we can clearly see the predicted Atlantic trough and downstream pattern, it's the small-scale details and trough disruptions that continue to cause the problems for NWP, but I would leave that aside for now and continue to focus and look for this broader synoptic pattern. We can also see how the 00Z GEFS has shifted from the previous run again as well as NWP continues to evolve and try and resolve the outlook deeper into May. This is when hovmollers can come in handy as well as you can see how the forecast evolves compared to what has been. One of the key things is the retrogression of the pattern, with time and how the broader troughs and ridges back westwards, as modelled, looking ahead leaving our corner of the world with the Atlantic trough and downstream ridge pattern. EPS is less keen than the GEFS with the amplification, but this is just one snapshot and one example of what is a broader expected evolution, as per the upcoming +GLAAM event, etc. Cheers, Matt. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4850629

Steady as she goes, following on from comments and discussions yesterday, we can clearly see the predicted Atlantic trough and downstream pattern, it's the small-scale details and trough disruptions that continue to cause the problems for NWP, but I would leave that aside for now and continue to focus and look for this broader synoptic pattern. We can also see how the 00Z GEFS has shifted from the previous run again as well as NWP continues to evolve and try and resolve the outlook deeper into May. This is when hovmollers can come in handy as well as you can see how the forecast evolves compared to what has been. One of the key things is the retrogression of the pattern, with time and how the broader troughs and ridges back westwards, as modelled, looking ahead leaving our corner of the world with the Atlantic trough and downstream ridge pattern. EPS is less keen than the GEFS with the amplification, but this is just one snapshot and one example of what is a broader expected evolution, as per the upcoming +GLAAM event, etc. Cheers, Matt.

Bit of context mind, despite the poor spring to date, the last few comments are based on the 00Z GFS which is clearly a MSLP outlier...The outlook is set to improve.

NB: As a side note, the PNA is set to go positive as well.... Again, all no surprise given the WWB and the atmospheric push towards a Nino regime (High GWO orbit) and we can see that pattern well just looking at the 00Z GEFS anom plot. The key thing for the N Atlantic and W Europe is where the primary trough, after the W USA ridge, ends up. The GEFS mean has it somewhat further west than we would like, but clearly this can all be refined eastwards somewhat, it is the broader pattern that is now, finally, gaining momentum (no pun intended!) for an improving, anticyclonic scenario as we progress deeper into May, linked to upstream, Pacific developments etc. Cheers. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4850292