RhHh
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Posts posted by RhHh
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4 hours ago, Sno' problem said:
You can see how different it is here:
Met Office WOW - Home Page
WOW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKThe UK Met Office Weather Observation Website (WOW). WOW allows anyone to submit their own weather data, anywhere in the world.
Submit our own weather report? No worries, for us Southerners it's just crap!
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22 minutes ago, MJB said:
And you aren't that far from Banbury
Banbury Snow
Bicester Rain
Lousy parkers in Bicester!!
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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
I’m Just wondering if on Friday those in the midlands and south of there will actually see their best covering of snow - looks like a few hours of potential
Keep dreaming. Too mild to the South and West.
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19 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Yep we can ‘trust’ that. Cold is here and digging in. Lots more to come….coldest UK March night in 13 years last night…who’d have thought?
BFTP
2c isn’t mild
BFTP
All subjective. Crap in our little corner however you try to dress it up.
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1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:
ECM12z barely brings in that mild air. Pulls down that cold air once again.
Interesting!
Well it's mild here
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Just now, ANYWEATHER said:
Looks like the heaviest rain for a long while for southern Britain, on Thursday, washout conditions. ..
After the past 6 boring weeks I'll happily take that!
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1 hour ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:
I've got to admit, I've used that a couple of times when summer model runs show plume thunderstorms slamming into S UK! Now I know where I picked that up!
Suffice to say, I shan't be using it again!
Please feel free to carry on using it, just remember though that it's likely to curse the weather you're looking for!
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14 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:
I remember the 5th April 1989. I was trialling a group walk near my home in Surrey and came into Kingswood as the snow started, and by the time I got to Kingswood golf course, which I had to cross, it was a total whiteout and was actually quite scary, with absolutely no-one around to help. Philip Eden noted 18cm of lying snow at nearby Tadworth, which I can quite believe, and it was a memorable day for me although the snowfall of that day has been largely forgotten by others
I can remember that well at Gatwick. A Paramount Airlines aircraft almost came a cropper due to not having been deiced properly. Only just got airborne.
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Just now, alexisj9 said:
Weirdly for some reason, no one has actually said that, unless I've somehow missed it
They say it all the time when they see a chart they like. You must have seen it.
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5 hours ago, Buzz said:
And don't forget the almost inevitable and incredibly annoying use of the word BOOM! ...........
Overall though, anyone wanting rain and milder weather should be happy with what's largely being shown for the end of the week (at the moment at least).
I find it even more annoying when they say BANK!
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8 minutes ago, IDO said:
The low is much further south on this run, so it misses the UK completely, just the trailing front:
Fascinating watching the different models. Wonder which one will verify.
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20 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:
Latest MO thinking is of the Atlantic low sliding ESE. Skirts with Devon and Cornwall before edging away into the Channel.
Areas just north and east of a line from Bristol to Bournemouth could see a prolonged dumping with the snow possibly flirting with M4 before it moves away south.
Parts of Hampshire and Sussex could see very high snowfall totals and strong winds too.
What date is this for please Dave?
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17 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
Focusing on the more reliable and the northerly for now then….which we will hopefully all enjoy -
No intention to criticise here (not in my nature in any case
) and I think the Met Office do a very difficult public-facing job brilliantly. I think they’ve got it broadly right with the forthcoming northerly pattern and it’s longevity, and with their own model too.
However, there is one aspect of their narrative in which they continually get the emphasis wrong and that is the impression that they give in the run-up to wintry northerly spells that the south and west are likely to stay largely dry, frequently understating the scope for significant snowfall as a result. It gives an incorrect impression. In straightforward showery setups, a wiser term might be ‘away from north facing coasts’ or ‘away from places exposed to the northerly wind’.
Having said that, we live well inland and with the mountains of North Wales to our north and northwest and invariably get appreciable snow off a northerly (even a true northerly, let alone a north-northwesterly) that has set in for a few days. It happens time and time again. Pembrokeshire has its famous dangler, the same line often bringing Cornwall in to the frame for showers, not necessarily wintry, but certainly not dry. Troughs often form in the Bristol Channel that affect Devon and Somerset.
More substantial snowfall can occur from frontal systems, and small lows developing in the flow that form their own circulation, both of which back the wind northwesterly or westerly before they land in any case, with a lot of precipitation driven in from that direction, only straightening to a northerly again at the back edge when clearing.
From the current models:
12z GFS day 4-6 (small low pressure system, widespread snow)
12z GEM day 4-5 (troughing to North Sea low, widespread snow)
12z UKMO total precipitation to day 6 (precipitation generally similar across most areas, away from northern Scotland, and parts of the south coasts of Ireland and England).
A northwesterly brings the Cheshire gap into play, and showers and outbreaks of snow heading down there can bring snow to a large swathe of England, down into the Home Counties. In March, there’s more over-land convection too, pepping all this up further. I’m not saying that places further north don’t get more precipitation and lying snow than further south, but there’s plenty of scope for many western and southern areas to see a good bit of snow off a northerly setup.
A northeasterly is a very different matter. As is those situations with a big west-east pressure difference, with a ridge building in.
But with overtly cyclonic-derived northerlies, we get plenty of precipitation in the west and southwest, and when cold enough, plenty of snow that can lie for several days anywhere inland or with half reasonable altitude. And often in March too.
That model shows zero snow for the entire South East.
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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Past experience
I'll fetch my revolver!
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Just watched the BBC forecast for the week ahead. Complete borefest. Next 10 days same as now. No precipitation of any kind. Lots of cloud. Bit of sun. Occasional frost. We have the most boring weather in the world!
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36 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:
Sorry may be off topic but isn’t everybody like me sick of seeing good charts at day 10
been like it since the start of winter 
Add to that thought why do the night time charts show better for coldies?
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8 minutes ago, LRD said:
Thanks. Those pressure mean charts are more helpful than anomalies IMO. Shows the centre of the 'high' that was on the anomaly chart a bit further south. Over north Scotland as opposed to between Iceland and Norway. Might not look much but will give different surface conditions.
Certainly getting colder but how cold remains to be seen
Met office outlook gives 2 fingers to anything remotely wintry.
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33 minutes ago, StingJet said:
Understandably, just a regular gale for Scotland and the Northern Isles, where as packing a fair old punch when Otto hits Denmark, 975Mb as shown on the NAVGEM 12z for Friday eve , isobars as tight as a camel's ar*e in a sandstorm
Has the UK ever named a storm? It seems to me that it is left to the Spanish, French, Portuguese, Irish and now the Danish.
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51 minutes ago, johncam said:
Latest output is crud , a toppler then back to nothingness
Yes same old rubbish. Typically we have our first named storm of the season. Did the UK met office name it? Of course not, the Danish did!
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37 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Another one sometime in march 2013, I remember a red warning from the met, but the whole thing stayed south. A week or so later another came, with another red warning, this one did hit, but people had ignored the warning thinking it was wrong again.
That was March 11th 2013. We left Plumpton races near Brighton around 530pm in a blizzard, arrived home at 4am. Stuck on A23 as highways agency hadn't gritted. A great snowstorm which was fairly well forecast but if I recall had only really supposed to affect Kent and East Sussex.
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
If the GFS somehow manages to get this right it'll be a wonderful redemption arc for it's awful performance over the last week or so.
Er, no it won't!
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Off topic perhaps but does anyone know if Punxatawny Phil saw a shadow yesterday?
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
Upper cold pool
Thanks all, will watch with interest as nothing showing in the forecast at the moment.
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34 minutes ago, Gowon said:
The GEM gives us some snow next Thursday/Friday
How is that possible under high pressure?
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SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
We live in hope!