Catbrainz
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Posts posted by Catbrainz
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LetItSnow! Agree with you on 2023. July synoptics but in January would have been great as July 2023 had a southerly tracking jet, northern blocking and very NWly which all would make for a nice cold Jan.
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This May has been the first good month since September. So far I would give this May a 7/10 lots of sunny and warm days and while a little disappointed my area didn't get thunderstorms I am very happy with this month so far. Not higher due to some days being claggy and last Monday being a awful vile day with heavy rain all day.
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In terms of years I lived through and personally remember.
2012,2015 and 2023. 2021 has popped up a lot here but it was more boring and bland than truly poor. Seems I was far enough west to escape the worse of summer 2021.
if I had to pick I’d say 2012 takes the cake. A cruddy spring,Jun and July were vile and autumn was meh. August being the only half decent month I recall
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This week has been far better than Synoptics would have suggested. Only Monday being poor for my area.
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Despite the poor looking synoptics this week hasn't been a total disaster apart from Monday. Tuesday was cloudy but dry and Wednesday started off overcast but brightened up in the afternoon to a sunny warm evening, today had a sunny morning but clouded over about noon and despite heavy rain being forecast not a drop of rain today.
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Daniel* That is exactly why it’s so freaky. Atlantic driven weather in spring tends to be cooler than normal even if SWly as the Atlantic is at its coldest. Record warmth under SWlys is more a Nov/Jan thing than a spring thing. I would have thought to get a record warm spring would need a lot of anticylonic southerlies
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It’s a sign of a warming world that we are facing a high spring CET despite unexceptional weather and synoptic set ups.
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Today feels drier and brighter. Not a full on blue dome day but a lot of sunny spells with broken cloud. Better than yesterday and Monday presumably as the low is now over northern France rather than here.
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Looking at models the low will move south over France. Reminds me of Summer 2021 actually with lows over continental Western Europe and a high over northern UK. A funny set up where you could get better weather in the Scottish Highlands than in Paris or Bordeaux.
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SunSean From what models are showing it appears to be more a convective slack medium pressure area (If there's such a thing for pressure between say 1000-1015mb) rather than a Atlantic low carpet bombing run. Not a expert but I would guess a mix of showery weather with some sunnier and warmer spells mixed in.
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I know unrelated to UK weather but as a climate nerd I am wondering how many sunshine hours would you folks estimate this climate has. I am guessing around 1100-1200 a year going by similar climates in Scotland and Western Norway.
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WYorksWeather My areas around that 20 near the border hope the front stays clear of my area for a good bit until later on.
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For a update for the next week going by forecasts and models Monday looks awful with a front bringing rain and suppressed temps, Tuesday and Wednesday look showery but at least it seems more sunshine and showers convective than prolonged frontal rainfall as the low weakens and moves south into France and Thursday to the weekend looks decent with sunny spells and drier. Not a return to wall to wall sunshine and heat but a lot of pleasant usable weather forecast.
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I hope the slack cut off low next week gives us thunderstorms and a warm sunshine and showers pattern.
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SunSean This sounds awesome but im willing to allow for 3-4 days of slack convective lows a month for thundery/showery interest and one frontal rainfall event per month to keep the plants and wildlife hydrated. The rain front must be overnight however and gone by morning no lingering around! :P.
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Overall trajectory of the pattern seems that with pressure rising over northern UK the low is pushed south towards Iberia/Biscay and being weakened but I will reserve solid judgment until the weekend as cut off lows can be unpredictable
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Addicks Fan 1981 Wasnt yet born in 1992 and I cant find much data on May 1992 and Jun 1992 but July 2016 and Aug 2016 were both very average bog standard summer months. It will look dull and meh compared to the likes of 2018/2022 but look like paradise compared to say a 2012 or even last year.
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If its not too late for guesses I will say 36.1C.
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*Stormforce~beka* Thank you for letting me know. I have amended my error. Phone wasn't playing ball.
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@Summer8906 I hope thunder comes I am a big thunder fan. I think the poor weather has been down to two late season SSWs and El Nino working together to inflict misery.
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GFS 12z looks decent. Settled and pleasant this for most then a cut off low approaches from the west but never makes inroads and goes south torwards western Iberia instead. Seems to be followed by southeasterlies but that’s FI so no point in expecting it.
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I think the poor weather has been caused by many things aligning like El Niño and two late season SSWs in a row. El Niño tends to fire up the jetstream in my experience. From Discord convos it seems 2023/2024 haven’t been great years ether for NE America/Eastern Canada.
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Summer8906 Had to look at Met Office amomly maps as both summers were very beign and forgettable which means for me not outstanding but not terrible ether. 2020 is slightly worse of the two being wetter and cloudier overall while 2015 is a very bog standard summer average rain and sun but slightly cooler than average. I’d agree with you on wind direction.
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No 49C this year. I’m going to say a max of 36-37C
Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
This year hasn’t really had a spring weather wise. March and April felt more like late Oct/early Nov with constant Atlantic driven weather then a switch to summery weather for May.