DaveF

Another glimmer of hope from the EC46:

CoventryWeather Indeed the MSLP ECM ensembles from the 00Z run are very encouraging with lots of members going anticyclonic. Waiting with interest for the 12Z output. Somewhat supported by GEM (especially the OP). But GFS is having none of it. Really marked contrast between the GFS and ECM ensembles.

Some info on the Met Office models not updating:

No output from UKMO 0Z yet, and UKV (normally every 3 hours) hasn’t updated since the 18Z run. Anyone have any insight?

Almost no sunshine on offer right across the UK this coming week. Some glimpses on Friday in some areas but that's about it. Not sure I've ever seen a chart like this for Tuesday:

And 20Z looking extremely nasty for Cumbria and the Scottish border area.

UKV has really increased the Monday 00Z wind gusts in the 15Z run (first image) compared to the 03Z run (second image). Looks like his is going to be a major storm, especially where I am in NW Wales. It's suggesting gusts of 80-90mph even in the Midlands.

I think you’re misreading the plot. It’s not showing temperature, it’s showing the westerly component of stratospheric wind. An SSW leads to this falling below zero (reversal to easterly). The OP refers to the GEFS which is the green. Red is not an average, it is what happened last year.

This looks really nasty:

Extreme winds over SW Ireland if this validates. Then another similar compact low the day after approaching Cornwall.

UKMO 12Z and UKV 15Z showing a nasty looking compact low on Monday. GFS, ECM and GEM have it weaker and further north. Potential for strong winds but clearly there's uncertainty.

Sadly a bit of an outlier. But the ensemble mean is at 1020mb, and a good few members do reach 1030.

Also yayyyy:

That’s plausible because ensemble means a few days out will tend to underestimate peak wind speeds for a compact fast moving low, when the average is taken over different tracks. I’ve noticed more generally that the wind speeds in the Met Office spot forecasts tend to be underestimated a few days ahead and become stronger closer to the time.

Looks to me like we have a pretty consistent signal across all models from the 12Z runs. The centre of the low looks like it is going to track over Northern Ireland and Scotland, with severe winds on the south side, affecting Ireland, Wales, Northern England and Southern Scotland.